Mexico: Troubling Questions

Barring the most exceptional of surprises, Carlos Salinas de Gortari is assured election as the next president of Mexico in July. He is--with his brilliance, relative youth, education and commitment to economic reform--a promising candidate, if untested in the electoral process.

The Institutional Revolutionary Party has governed Mexico since 1929. President Miguel de la Madrid, in the tradition of outgoing presidents, has personally chosen Salinas as his successor. Nor will Salinas face any real challenge so long as the PRI maintains its ability to control the election outcome, one way or another.

His selection would appear, above all, to assure continuation of the austerity programs that De la Madrid has imposed, with the help of Salinas, and that the nation so obviously needs in this moment of crisis. There is another element of continuity that also is welcome in this nomination. Salinas seems likely to pursue the non-confrontational approach of De la Madrid in relations with the United States. He has been a persuasive advocate of cooperation with the northern neighbor. He has close ties to the United States--including his association with Harvard University, where he earned three post-graduate degrees in the fields of public administration and political economy.

For those of us observing this political process from the north, there are intriguing contrasts between the U.S. and Mexican systems. Television electioneering, image engineering, communication skills, all of the theatricals of presidential election maneuvering now so visible in the United States have no visible place in Mexico. Freed from that process, De la Madrid has turned to a technocrat--a man who never has faced the voters in an election, who has reputation neither as cheerleader nor as hand holder. No charisma. No ratings. And, to the extent that there have been polls, not much standing with the people. In sum, the kind of candidate who could never be nominated in the United States.

All of that may have a certain attraction for those in the United States who are impatient when images seem to overwhelm substance, and appearances supersede competence in the electoral system. But there are troubling questions for anyone committed to democracy--questions concerning the reliability of a selection process that seems to ignore the public at every turn. Will the candidate emerging from such a system have the ability to lead, to win from the population the response that will reverse the economic decline, stem the hemorrhage of Mexican capital in flight to foreign havens, control the endemic corruption and broaden the base of those sharing the benefits of national development? Mexican history has no clear answer.