Events Kick Simon Campaign Into Gear : When Issue Became Trust, Senator Found Himself Well Placed

MANCHESTER, N.H. —  Illinois Sen. Paul Simon is a man of enormous, if quiet, self-confidence. But never in his wildest dreams did he expect to be where he finds himself at this stage of the 1988 Democratic presidential race.

With the first voter tests still four months away, Simon’s candidacy is suddenly being taken seriously.

This wasn’t supposed to happen at all in the minds of some, and Simon himself was betting on a last-minute surge in Iowa next February.

Simon’s candidacy still faces big odds for several reasons, but polls are showing a steady increase in support for him in Iowa--a recent one actually gave him a slight lead there--and his campaign has shifted into high gear.

Just five months ago he was the late starter among candidates who had been running hard for the Democratic nomination for more than a year. And, with his plain looks and quirky bow tie, Simon was the mule in a ring of show horses.

No One Is Laughing

Some pundits laughed when he announced he was a candidate. But no one is laughing now, because recent events in the 1988 race appear to have broken Simon’s way.

The 58-year-old Simon is a happily married, church-going Lutheran who has never had a brush with political scandal. Greatly respected for his intelligence and integrity by Democrats and Republicans, he likes to say: “With me there is no pretty package. What you see is what you get.”

It’s a line that is packing some punch in the wake of the embarrassing incidents that have knocked two Democrats out of the race and damaged the candidacy of a third.

Rapidly Adding Staff

Media requests for interviews are pouring in. The campaign is rapidly adding staff and picking up fund-raising and other help from former supporters of Delaware Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., who quit the Democratic race two weeks ago, and Gary Hart, who quit in May.

“What has happened is that we are moving faster than we had expected,” Simon said in an interview, citing a recent poll by a Boston television station that showed him now leading in Iowa with 15%, followed by Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis with 14% and the Rev. Jesse Jackson and Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt with 12%.

When the poll’s margin of error is taken into account, that still amounts to a tie. And in any case, Simon said, he has been in politics too long--33 years--to make too much of such an early poll. He and his advisers are now worried, however, that they may not be able to meet new expectations when Iowa Democrats go to caucuses next February.

He would also have to strongly challenge Dukakis’ strong base in New Hampshire--although analysts point out that Simon’s personable style and lack of arrogance should serve him well here.

Advisers Won’t Tinker

The recent developments in the Democratic race have made one thing a certainty: Simon’s advisers will not tinker with how he looks or what he says.

“Integrity and honesty are now at the forefront,” contends Simon campaign director Brian Lunde. “First you had Gary Hart, then Joe Biden dropping out, and then I think things were crystallized by (the Dukakis campaign’s) giving the press the Biden videotape.

“There will continue to be discussions of issues,” Lunde said, “but I’m not sure we will get beyond the issue of trust now. Because of Paul’s integrity and his experience in public life, he is perfectly positioned.”

There is still some question whether Simon can sell himself as a Democrat who can win in November, 1988. He is dovish on defense and believes the government should play an active role in society--two positions that usually hurt Democrats in the electorally crucial Sun Belt.

“I am out there supporting social spending,” Simon said. “I am for jobs programs and education programs.”

Supports Balanced Budget

But Simon also supports a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, and he voted for the Gramm-Rudman spending controls.

Another problem for Simon could be that his low-key demeanor and professorial look do not project the image of strength so popular in the South and the West.

“If you are looking for some big man with white hair and a presidential look, I am not your man,” Simon said. “I don’t come on that strong initially, but I think I wear well.”

In a recent candidate forum in New Hampshire, Simon drew strong applause from the audience with his call for “compassion and caring.” As it usually does in such settings, Simon’s basic decency stood out.

But when asked at the same forum how the United States could reduce tensions with the Soviet Union, Simon replied: “We want to make clear our commitment to defending this country . . . but (we should be) talking to our friends in the Soviet Union and saying, ‘We differ with you on human rights and the invasion of Afghanistan.’ Friends can talk frankly to one another.”

Answer May Cause Problems

Polls show Americans more receptive to such dovish statements than they were during much of the Reagan Administration, but Simon’s answer could still cause him problems in the South--in the primaries or in a general election.

Can Simon sell in the South on Super Tuesday if he does well in Iowa and New Hampshire?

“My home in southern Illinois is farther south than Louisville and Richmond,” he notes. “I have been winning the votes of conservatives for years.”

Florida Rep. Charles E. Bennett, a moderate to conservative Democrat who is still neutral in the Democratic race, said:

“Paul would make a great President because he is a man with wisdom, and he mixes that with a volume of passion.

“There’s no reason he can’t do well in the South if they get to know him. The reaction in the South to the Bork confirmation hearings shows, I think, the South to be much more forward looking than we get credit for.”

But Democratic consultant James Carville, a native of Louisiana, has his doubts.

‘Tough Time on Super Tuesday’

“I think Simon will have a tough time on Super Tuesday,” said Carville, who is not involved in the presidential race. “But then it depends on who is left standing in the Democratic field. The Texas primary is pretty liberal, for example, and I suppose Simon could do well there. But probably not if Jesse Jackson is still strong.”

As for Simon’s decency and integrity, Carville noted, “You can say all those things about Walter Mondale (who was soundly defeated by Reagan in 1984).”

All of that is true enough, said former Texas Rep. Jim Collins, a conservative Republican who served with Simon in the House.

But Collins, who said he has watched in dismay as “easier targets” such as Hart and Biden dropped out of the Democratic race, warned: “We Republicans could have no tougher opponent than Paul Simon in 1988. He has been underestimated his entire career, but I know him. He may be liberal but he is honest. And he has values. . . . He believes in the Bible.”