Aquino Shows New Resolve in an Edgy Nation

When she spoke before a gathering of businessmen last week, President Corazon Aquino demonstrated a new toughness that surprised both critics and supporters.

Tough talk was followed by tough action. After a presidential directive, policemen dismantled illegal picket lines set up by striking workers and government employees who had been ordered to meet presidential deadlines for improving public services--including filling potholes and clearing garbage from Manila’s streets.

This demonstration of direct action comes after a long period of indecisiveness and drift. Critics have accused Aquino of being incapable of governing, much less of meeting the increasingly belligerent challenges from both communist insurgents and rebellious soldiers.

Aquino now seems determined to prove her critics wrong. There also appears to be an effort to change the image of her presidency from that of low-key, almost invisible leadership to one of dynamism and visibility.

Her supporters hope it is not too late. Until now, the threat of yet another bloody takeover attempt remains, making Manila an extremely nervous city where news of “unauthorized troop movements” have become almost routine. In the 20 months of the Aquino government, mutinous military factions have attempted to take power five times. In the last attempt in August, more than 50 people were killed. Renegade military officers led by Col. Gregorio (Gringo) Honasan are still at large, eluding a government dragnet yet managing to appear at press interviews right in the heart of the city.

At the same time, communist rebels have stepped up attacks on military and government installations, bridges and power lines. After August’s aborted coup, the rebel leadership directed its forces to intensify military action, exploiting the rifts within the armed forces.

Almost daily the government’s vulnerability is demonstrated by the continued revelation of rightist conspiracies and increasingly destructive leftist guerrilla attacks. While Aquino remains popular, the perception that her government is not in control is eroding her base of support, especially among Manila’s influential middle class.

The conservative political parties opposed to Aquino are taking advantage of the current instability and waning presidential support, not just by constant public agitation but also by joining ranks in a “tactical alliance” with Vice President Salvador H. Laurel.

Laurel--who launched a tour of the United States on Friday to talk with Filipino groups in cities across the country, including Los Angeles--resigned from the Cabinet last month. He has since agreed to be part of a coalition with, among others, Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile, the former defense minister who was linked to previous takeover plots. While the ostensible purpose of the alliance is to prepare for local elections next January, opposition leaders say that the coalition also hopes to have a political structure ready in case Aquino resigns.

If that happens, Laurel is mandated by the constitution to take over the presidency. On such a “constitutional coup” the opposition is pinning its hopes. Some opposition leaders think this could happen if Aquino is continuously buffeted by left and right and is simply unable to govern, especially if a major chunk of the armed forces withdraws support from her government.

Whether it was intended or not, the Enrile-Laurel coalition complements the destabilization efforts of mutinous soldiers. Moreover, recent intelligence reports revealed the formation of a rightist alliance dedicated to Aquino’s overthrow, bringing together soldiers loyal to the renegade Col. Honasan, supporters of Marcos and some opposition politicians.

Though the Aquino government has explicit assurances of U.S. support, the opposition is hoping to undermine that support by presenting itself as a more viable alternative that could guarantee protection of vital American interests in the Philippines, including two major military bases. Aquino remains ambiguous in her stand toward the retention of the bases when the treaty covering the installations expires in 1992.

Opposition politicians also echo official U.S. concerns about the increasing strength of the communist insurgency and the government’s seeming incapacity to deal decisively with it. Though American officials have made it very clear that the U.S. government will never support a regime that acquires power through a military takeover, the opposition hopes to win approval for its “constitutional coup.” As Laurel told a recent news conference, “The U.S. government has to deal with whoever is on the saddle in the government.”

In the face of strengthened right-wing opposition--both overt political action and clandestine destabilization--Aquino’s advisers now talk of a more aggressive consolidation of the political center, where her support lies. Aquino’s new visibility and toughness appear to be part of that effort.

But Aquino herself seems a stumbling block. Her advisers have long recommended the formation of a political party or a movement that will serve as a structure for consolidating support. Aquino, however, has consistently refused. In recent interviews, she repeated what she has said in the past: She is not a politician, doesn’t intend to run for reelection, so doesn’t need a political party.

But apart from boosting her political support, Aquino also needs to strengthen the constitutionalist bloc in the armed forces--no easy task. The military has emerged from 14 years of dictatorship intensely politicized and factionalized. As the articulate marine commander, Brig. Gen. Rodolfo Biazon, put it: “We have to educate a whole generation of soldiers who have only read about democracy from books and not seen it in practice. We have to force them to understand the inherent deficiencies of this kind of government.”

Restive officers have often expressed impatience with the tediousness of the democratic process. Having tasted power in the previous regime, they are resentful about civilian intrusion into military affairs; at the same time they accuse the government of not sufficiently improving the lot of soldiers. Rebellious officers have successfully exploited these grievances and used them to inveigle troops into taking part in takeover attempts.

Then there are some serious non-military problems. Two weeks ago, two partly successful general strikes hit Manila and other major cities as workers pressed for an increase in minimum wages (which now range from $1.70 a day for agricultural workers to $2.75 for urban wage earners). In coming weeks, farmers are expected to be heard from as Congress debates land redistribution.

“The expansion of political participation by a variety of groups is outpacing the development of democratic processes and institutions,” said Alfredo Bengzon, health secretary and peace commissioner. “The threat of a violent upheaval is real and hangs over all our heads.”

Such pressures have made many people cynical about the viability of democracy in a country that has a long tradition of political violence and where, until recently, exuberant political forces were kept in line through repressive measures.

But Aquino is confident that she will prevail. “I know how to use power now,” she told a recent interviewer.

She also has a clearer sense of priorities. The rightist rebellion must be dealt with first as the most immediate threat, she said, while the communist insurgency is a long-term problem, one that cannot be decisively addressed if the armed forces remain divided.

She has likewise dared her political opponents and bluntly told them she does not intend to give up power before her term is up: “It’s not me to ever yield.”