Arias Fears for His Latin Peace Plan After ‘Very Serious’ Setbacks

President Oscar Arias Sanchez, architect of the Central American peace plan, believes that the assassination of a Salvadoran human rights activist and the ensuing suspension of Salvadoran cease-fire talks are a “very, very serious” setback for the plan.

In Nicaragua the peace process also is “at an impasse,” the Costa Rican president said, and he insisted that the Sandinista government negotiate a cease-fire with the U.S.-backed Contras through a mediator, even though the plan does not explicitly require it to do so.

“Today, the principal obstacle is intolerance, inflexibility,” Arias said in an interview here last week. “What we need is to extend bridges and not to cling to positions. This requires an attitude of flexibility from the United States, from Nicaragua, from Cuba and all those who are involved in the Central American conflict.”

Even as Arias made his plea, the Sandinista leadership dealt the plan another setback, proclaiming that it is under no obligation to take any further steps to comply with the accord until the United States and Honduras stop helping the Contras. Bayardo Arce, one of the nine commanders of the Sandinista party’s ruling directorate, said the government will neither lift a state of emergency nor broaden its amnesty law as long as the Contras continue their attacks.

The Honduran government has taken no steps to dismantle Contra base camps or the U.S. logistical network for the Contras in its territory, arguing that it does not have to do so until the Sandinistas negotiate with the guerrillas and adopt a total amnesty.

Arias, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for initiating the peace plan, said he will talk with the other four Central American presidents before Thursday, when the plan is to go into effect. The five signed the plan Aug. 7 in Guatemala.

At a meeting here last week, the foreign ministers of the five nations agreed that Nov. 5 will mark the beginning of the peace process, rather than a deadline for implementing the plan’s provisions. They said that all five presidents will meet again in January to evaluate its progress.

The plan calls for cease-fires in the region’s guerrilla wars, amnesty programs, democratic reforms and an end to foreign support for insurgencies. Governments are to keep guerrillas from using their territories to attack neighboring governments.

In addition to the urgings of Arias, the leftist Sandinistas are also being pressed by the international social democratic movement to hold talks with the Contras.

Apparently in response to such pressure and to a recent upsurge in Contra guerrilla activity, the Sandinista leadership issued its unexpected, toughly worded statement.

It was not immediately clear whether the statement was political posturing or a sign of a genuine hardening of the Marxist-led party’s position. Some diplomats in the region say it signals divisions within the Sandinista leadership over the peace plan, with Arce and Interior Minister Tomas Borge, both hard-liners, on one side and President Daniel Ortega and his brother, Defense Minister Humberto Ortega, on the other.

President Ortega said Friday night that he would, indeed, announce some new measures under the peace accord Thursday. Ortega’s foreign minister, Miguel D’Escoto, has said that the government plans to announce a broad amnesty plan, to include a majority of the political prisoners and some jailed former members of deposed dictator Anastasio Somoza’s old National Guard.

Costa Rican, Guatemalan and Salvadoran diplomats say they believe Nicaragua eventually will negotiate with the Contras through Nicaragua’s Roman Catholic primate, Cardinal Miguel Obando y Bravo, who heads the Nicaraguan National Reconciliation Commission. Obando met with a Contra delegation Oct. 24 in New York.

Arce and Ortega, however, reiterated the Sandinistas’ longstanding position that they will talk only with the United States. They say the Contras are simply a proxy army of Washington.

“If the United States has security concerns with Nicaragua and this has brought them to a policy of war against Nicaragua using the mercenaries, then the United States should have a dialogue with Nicaragua,” Ortega said.

Yielding to pressure from the other four Central American governments last week, Honduras agreed to begin complying with the peace plan Nov. 5, independent of Nicaragua’s progress. But one diplomat at the meeting expressed skepticism. “Honduras is still going to do what it has done since the beginning--nothing,” he said.

President Arias said the United States and Nicaragua are waiting for the other to take the first step. He argued that Nicaragua is most in need of ending the war and, therefore, should make the first move. Arias said that as soon as the Sandinistas agree to negotiate with the Contras, he will press the United States to negotiate with the Sandinistas.

The Sandinista government has taken several steps toward implementing the peace plan, including granting permission for the opposition newspaper La Prensa and the Roman Catholic Church’s radio station to reopen. The station, Radio Catolica, has been a harsh critic of the Sandinistas and has not yet received permission from the government to air a news show.

The Sandinistas have proclaimed four small, scattered areas cease-fire zones, but Arias said that accepting a unilateral cease-fire is the equivalent of surrender. “It is not realistic to think a soldier without authorization will put down his weapons,” he said.

Latin Diplomats Hopeful

Despite the setbacks, Central American diplomats said they expect the peace plan to go forward. They said that the Reagan Administration’s announced intention to postpone seeking $270 million in additional aid for the Contras until January should give the plan some breathing room.

“This is a long process with many ups and downs,” a Guatemalan diplomat said. “Each president is subject to pressures in his own country, but I feel the overall climate is favorable.”

The governments of El Salvador and Guatemala have held peace talks with guerrillas from their countries, but they have not been very productive.

Salvadoran President Jose Napoleon Duarte and guerrilla leaders set up a cease-fire commission that held one round of talks in Venezuela and had agreed to another round in Mexico City before Herbert Ernesto Anaya was slain.

Anaya, leader of El Salvador’s non-governmental Human Rights Commission, was shot dead in front of his home Monday by unidentified gunmen in civilian dress. The slaying prompted the guerrillas to call off the Mexico City meeting.

Duarte has said that he will declare a unilateral cease-fire if no agreement is reached with the guerrillas.

El Salvador’s legislative assembly adopted a controversial amnesty bill that not only would free political prisoners but also would pardon anyone accused of involvement in an estimated 40,000 killings by right-wing death squads in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

“You can declare an amnesty,” Costa Rica’s Arias said, “but if tomorrow (rebel leader) Ruben Zamora returns (to El Salvador), no one knows if one of these groups could try to take his life. That would be an unsalvageable setback in the peace process we have initiated.”