No Immediate Impact Seen in Shuffle of Security Aides

Because of the expected resignation of Secretary of Defense Caspar W. Weinberger, the Reagan Administration is preparing a major shuffling of its most senior national security advisers as final plans are being made for the U.S.-Soviet summit conference next month.

In the short run, the anticipated departure of Weinberger is not expected to have a major policy impact. Citing his lack of involvement in the last meeting between Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev in Iceland, for example, Administration officials predicted that the secretary’s absence would have no impact on current summit preparations.

But hard-line conservatives expressed fears Tuesday that his likely replacement by National Security Adviser Frank C. Carlucci, widely known as a conciliator, may weaken the Pentagon in disputes over arms control policy with the State Department.

“I don’t think Carlucci has the same relationship with the President that Weinberger has. That has been instrumental in the exercise of influence by Weinberger,” a former senior Pentagon official said.

Some conservatives complained that former Sen. John Tower (R-Tex.) would be a better choice for the post because he has the President’s confidence and is seen as a hard-liner on arms control issues.

Those critics believe that Carlucci’s expected nomination was engineered by White House Chief of Staff Howard H. Baker Jr. and Secretary of State George P. Shultz--his allies among the so-called Administration “pragmatists” in their continuing dispute with the President’s more conservative allies--to guarantee their authority over foreign policy.

The White House plans Thursday to announce Weinberger’s resignation, the nomination of Carlucci and his replacement by his deputy, Army Lt. Gen. Colin L. Powell, sources said. Weinberger is resigning to help care for his ailing wife, Jane, and not because of any policy dispute, according to senior officials and friends of Weinberger outside government.

Although Mrs. Weinberger confirmed the resignation in an interview published today in The New York Times, she suggested her health was not the reason. Unidentified friends quoted in the story, however, said Mrs. Weinberger was trying to be stoic about her worsening condition.

Weinberger is expected to remain in his post, which he has held since the beginning of the Reagan Administration in 1981, until his successor is confirmed by the Senate--a process that could be delayed until after the summit meeting, which begins in Washington on Dec. 7.

Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.) said after a White House meeting that he did not expect Carlucci, who has maintained good relations with Congress, to encounter any difficulties in receiving Senate approval.

‘A Tenacious Man’

Although Carlucci was a protege of the defense secretary, Weinberger has a much more combative reputation. “ ‘Cap’ is a very tenacious man,” said a former senior Pentagon official, using Weinberger’s nickname. “He fights until the battle is over and then he continues to fight.”

Weinberger’s hand was strengthened further by his close personal relationship with Reagan, an association that has lasted for more than 20 years as an adviser in and out of government. He has been a Reagan confidant since Reagan’s days as governor of California and--along with Samuel R. Pierce Jr., secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development--is one of only two members of the original Reagan Cabinet still serving in their posts.

“Whether a lame duck will have the same influence as someone who is staying on is a good question,” said Robert B. Sims, Weinberger’s former spokesman. But, Sims added, Weinberger “is likely to be able to make his weight felt right up until the last because of his relationship with the President and his seniority in the Administration.”

Carlucci ‘More Wily’

Another former Pentagon official, pointing out the differences between Weinberger and his expected successor, said that “Carlucci is in many ways more wily.” However, he added: “I just don’t know about Carlucci’s endurance.”

Even more uncertain is the impact that Powell would have as Carlucci’s replacement in the national security post. The career Army officer, one of only a few blacks at his level in the armed forces, is known as a general with finely tuned political senses who is unlikely to take on deeply entrenched forces in the civilian arena.

But, said one former senior Pentagon official who worked with Powell several years ago when the general was Weinberger’s military assistant, “Colin Powell will strengthen” the National Security Council staff.

And, on Capitol Hill, Carlucci could be expected to improve the Pentagon’s relations with Congress as defense secretary, although congressional sources and outside analysts said he may have limited effect inside the massive military bureaucracy.

Weinberger often struck a confrontational stance in his dealings with Congress, tolerating little compromise over budget issues. He was a forceful advocate of Reagan’s commitment to increased military spending and presided over the largest peacetime military buildup in U.S. history. He championed several large weapons programs, including the B-1 bomber, the MX and Midgetman strategic missiles, a huge naval buildup and generous funding for the Strategic Defense Initiative, known popularly as the “Star Wars” space defense program.

Overseer Role

Carlucci, on the other hand, would be expected to adopt more of an overseer role at the Pentagon, trying to protect Administration military priorities against inevitable budget cuts that will be decreed by the Gramm-Rudman deficit-reduction law or new spending cuts that are likely to emerge from current White House-Congress negotiations.

Several members of Congress said they believe that Carlucci is better suited to this constrained political environment than Weinberger would have been.

“ ‘Cap’ Weinberger is a hard-liner without any compromise in him,” Sen. Alan Dixon (D-Ill.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a telephone interview. He predicted that Carlucci may be “more willing to accommodate different points of view.”

House Armed Services Committee Chairman Les Aspin (D-Wis.) cautioned that there are limits on what Carlucci could achieve in the Administration’s waning months, saying that “no one should expect much progress in such areas as procurement reform.” But he added: “Mr. Carlucci can, however, have a major impact on two core policy issues staring us in the face: the Persian Gulf and arms control.”

‘A Great Deal of Relief’

One Democratic staff member, speaking on the condition that he not be identified, was more blunt in his assessment: “There is a great deal of relief, both that he (Weinberger) is leaving and that he is being replaced by a reasonable man.”

And the same Carlucci qualities that attract such Democrats are repelling some Republicans. “I think everybody loses with ‘Cap’ going at this point,” an aide to an influential Republican senator said. “The departure of ‘Cap’ Weinberger means Ronald Reagan is now at the mercy of the Washington professionals, for whom the Reagan revolution is a bump in the road.”

James T. Hackett, national security specialist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said that Weinberger’s resignation will mark “a further symptom of the decline and fall of the Reagan Administration.”

Carlucci will face monumental problems at the Pentagon and has very little time in which to act. The years of defense spending sprees are over, efforts at reorganization are moving at a glacial pace and he will be confronted with difficult choices on a wide range of highly sensitive Pentagon policies.

“I don’t think it makes any difference who assumes the job now,” said Harlan K. Ullman, a former career naval officer who is now a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “All that’s left to do is administer and oversee. There’s just not enough time.”