Dukakis, Bush Lead, but Most Party Brokers Wait to See

Seven months before the 1988 California presidential primary, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis on the Democratic side and Vice President George Bush on the Republican have the most early support among officeholders and political organizers in the San Fernando Valley.

Although many of the Valley’s top political figures remain uncommitted, Dukakis appears to dominate the Democratic field here more than he does nationally, according to recent Times interviews with 40 Valley elected officials and political activists.

The Valley support for Bush is generally consistent with the national profile. The Republican eye-opener is former television evangelist Pat Robertson, who is backed by the Valley’s top political cash contributor, auto dealer H. F. (Bert) Boeckmann, and a small army of volunteers.

New York Rep. Jack Kemp may also have more appeal here than he has shown nationwide.

In general, however, Valley rank-and-file interest in the campaigns is unusually low. More than half of those interviewed said they have not firmly committed themselves to any candidate.

“Clearly nobody has stepped forward to articulate the concerns and desires of the American people, and nobody has found an issue that is going to galvanize the public,” said Ross B. Hopkins, former president of the Valley Industry and Commerce Assn. and a registered Republican.

Activity in the Valley has been confined to fund-raising letters and appearances by several contenders as the candidates focus on the early primaries and caucuses elsewhere. Candidates generally visit Los Angeles at this point to seek cash contributions.

About 430,000 registered voters live in the Valley--a third of the city’s 1.3 million. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the Valley, but they tend to be more independent-minded and conservative than the rest of Los Angeles.

Activists in both parties, particularly Democrats scarred by their early support of former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart or Delaware Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., emphasize that the fields will be winnowed before high-voltage stumping hits the West Coast. Several Democrats, uninspired by the current lineup, hope that charismatic New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo will enter the race.

“Most people are uncommitted,” Doris (Dodo) Meyer, Mayor Tom Bradley’s Valley deputy, said, referring to Democrats. This includes Meyer as well as Bradley.

“Nothing’s jelled for anybody,” Meyer said. “The Gary Hart thing was very harmful. It melted down a desire for people to come out early. It made everybody wary of committing themselves. We’re much farther away than we have been in the past. You don’t hear a lot of talk about it.”

Hart Ran Well in ’84

Hart, who ran well in the Valley in the 1984 Democratic primary, dropped out of the 1988 race last May after disclosure of his relationship with Donna Rice. Biden withdrew in September after revelations that he had plagiarized others’ work.

The most important Valley Democrat on the fence is Rep. Howard L. Berman (D-Panorama City). Berman and Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Los Angeles) can mobilize potent fund-raising and direct-mail muscle through their Westside political organization--as they did for Hart in 1984.

“I am still in the process of sorting through a sense of which will be the best candidate and who will have the best chance in November,” Berman said last week.

Among Democrats who have committed themselves, Dukakis’ record as governor of Massachusetts, which has experienced an economic resurgence, has sparked some pre-primary support. Others said his emphasis on high technology and innovation could attract many former Hart supporters.

“He projects an intelligence and grasp of issues and management experience that would appeal to Valley voters,” said ex-City Councilman Bob Ronka, who headed Hart’s 1984 Valley campaign and remains uncommitted for 1988.

Early Dukakis backers include Los Angeles County Supervisor Ed Edelman, City Councilwoman Joy Picus and Judith Hirshberg of Encino, former chairwoman of National Women’s Political Caucus of California.

State Sen. Gary K. Hart of Santa Barbara, who also backed Colorado’s Hart, said he too “likes Dukakis at first glance” but is not ready to make another early endorsement.

Interest in Illinois Sen. Paul Simon has also grown in the wake of the Hart and Biden episodes, according to activists. Said County Democratic Chairman Jim Clarke, “I’m getting more and more calls on Paul Simon.”

Clarke, who lives in Reseda and remains uncommitted, explained Simon’s attraction: “He’s scandal-free. He has set himself apart from the blue-suiters with his bow tie and funny glasses. Then, if you start listening to him, he makes a lot of sense.”

Valley Democratic Chairman Bud Knudsen and Julie Korenstein, the West Valley school board representative, said they lean toward Simon and his traditional liberal message. Korenstein, who backed the Rev. Jesse Jackson in 1984, said her first choice in 1988 would have been Colorado Rep. Patricia Schroeder, who decided not to enter the fray.

Jackson, who leads in polls nationally, appears to have a small Valley base in black and Latino areas of Pacoima and San Fernando. Richard Packard of Pacoima, a Walter F. Mondale supporter in 1984, maintained that Jackson’s support is expanding beyond the minority community.

“If he’s given the right exposure as the front-runner, Americans will be able to see Jesse’s not the ‘black candidate’ but the candidate who is most qualified,” Packard said.

Others, however, said they are skeptical that Jackson’s Valley appeal will broaden.

Representatives of large Valley labor unions said Dukakis and Simon, and to a lesser degree, Jackson, have raised the most interest. No union has made an endorsement.

Other Democratic candidates received little or no mention during the recent interviews.

Rep. Anthony C. Beilenson is Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt’s only prominent Valley supporter. The Tarzana Democrat said he has raised money for his friend and colleague and plans to campaign for Gephardt in Iowa and New Hampshire.

“He’s a man of good solid values and I think he’s very electable,” Beilenson said.

Assemblyman Richard Katz of Sepulveda is former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt’s California co-chairman and his only well-known Valley supporter. Katz, who got to know Babbitt while consulting him on parallel water problems of Arizona and California, praises the ex-governor’s strong environmental and pro-business record.

Dukakis, Jackson and Babbitt have each held a recent Valley campaign event.

No one interviewed mentioned support for the remaining Democratic candidate, Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. Several did mention Cuomo, who is not running.

“I’m still hoping Cuomo jumps into the race because of his superior intellect and his ability to get a message across to people,” said Thomas J. Montgomery of Pacoima, the 39th Assembly District Democratic chairman and a former Biden supporter. “The one guy who can unite the Democratic Party is Mario Cuomo.”

Republicans who have committed to Bush include Rep. Elton Gallegly of Simi Valley, state Sen. Ed Davis of Valencia, Shirley Whitney of Reseda, chairman of the 43rd Assembly District Republican committee, and Art Pfefferman of Northridge, chairman of the Donut Inn chain and a major campaign contributor.

“He is far and away the most qualified,” Gallegly said. “I don’t think there’s been a candidate in history with a more impressive resume.”

Former Rep. Bobbi Fiedler of Northridge and attorney George Woolverton of Tarzana, the 1986 GOP nominee in the 23rd Congressional District, said they also lean to Bush. Fiedler said Bush was accessible and responsive to her in the past; and Woolverton said the vice president had contributed nearly $5,000 to his campaign.

“A lot of people feel Bush has been an extremely loyal trooper to President Reagan,” Fiedler said. “He has gained great respect from California Reaganites.”

Even some of the uncommitted said Bush’s nomination appears inevitable--reflecting his lead in the national polls, successful fund-raising and high profile as vice president.

“It’s pretty much a race that George Bush has to lose,” said Rep. Carlos J. Moorhead of Glendale, who plans to choose from Bush, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole and Kemp in early 1988.

Others, however, said Bush’s status as front-runner is tenuous.

“The support for George Bush is a mile wide and an inch deep,” said Assemblyman Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks, who backs Kemp. “There will be a mass exodus of conservatives from the Bush camp once issues start to be discussed in earnest.”

McClintock called Kemp “the natural successor to Ronald Reagan. He was pioneering the economic policies of the Reagan Administration before there was a Reagan Administration.”

Kemp, an early advocate of supply-side economics, was a force behind the 1981 Reagan tax cut.

Several Republicans, including pollster Arnold Steinberg, said Kemp has a potential base in the Valley among bedrock conservatives and those aware of the ex-football star’s Southern California roots. Kemp was born and raised in Los Angeles, and his in-laws still live in Ventura County.

Kemp has recruited more than 250 volunteers in the Valley, said Bob Schuman, Kemp’s Western Region political director.

Still, a number of undecided Republicans said their choice is between Bush and Senate Minority Leader Dole. And Linda Davidovich of Tarzana, former president of the California Young Republicans, said Dole “seems to have the greatest support among young activists.”

She and her husband, Nick, favor Dole because “he knows how Washington works,” she said, adding: “We have confidence in his ability to make good decisions. There’s a depth of character.”

Robertson, who ranks well down in the polls, has launched a volunteer effort in the Valley that has been as successful as any of those of the leading candidates at this point, according to interviews with representatives of the most active Republican campaigns.

Robertson’s Valley volunteer coordinator, Alan Terrano, said the campaign has enlisted 240 individuals--including many evangelical Christians new to the political arena--to make phone calls and distribute flyers.

Boeckmann, a “born-again” Christian, said he will be campaigning actively for Robertson and may be his California or Western Region campaign chairman.

Robert Thoreson of Northridge, the 1984 and 1986 Republican nominee in the 39th Assembly District, said he is also for Robertson, in part because of his superior campaign efforts.

“He has put together an organization in California,” Thoreson said. “He’s organizing some of the churches. I don’t think anyone has as many newcomers as Robertson.”

No Republicans mentioned the other two candidates, former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV and former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr.

Two assemblywomen, Cathie Wright of Simi Valley and Marian W. La Follette of Northridge, expressed disappointment that Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, the conservative former U. S. ambassador to the United Nations, chose not to run.

“I really don’t feel we’ve got the candidate that has that charisma,” Wright said, reflecting a feeling shared by some other Republicans looking toward the post-Reagan era. “I don’t find people really enthusiastic. But then, I don’t find that on the Democratic side, either.”

VALLEY PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENTS AT A GLANCE REPUBLICANS Vice President GEORGE BUSH Rep. Elton Gallegly State Sen. Ed Davis Activist Shirley Whitney Contributor Art Pfefferman New York Rep. JACK KEMP Assemblyman Tom McClintock Former Television Evangelist PAT ROBERTSON Fund-raiser H.F. (Bert) Boeckmann Activist Robert Thoreson Kansas Sen. BOB DOLE Activists Nick and Linda Davidovich DEMOCRATS Massachusetts Gov. MICHAEL S. DUKAKIS County Supervisor Ed Edelman Rep. City Councilwoman Joy Picus Activist Judith Hirshberg Missouri Rep. RICHARD A. GEPHARDT Rep. Anthony C. Beilenson Former Arizona Gov. BRUCE BABBITT Assemblyman Richard Katz (state co-chairman) REV. JESSE JACKSON Activist Richard Packard