‘Unprecedented Gloominess’ Reigns : Slow Growth Is Favored in Orange County Survey

Angry and cynical about congestion, Orange County residents favor a slow-growth ballot measure by as much as a 4-1 margin and are generally pessimistic about the county’s future, according to the 1987 Orange County Annual Survey.

The poll, conducted by UC Irvine’s Public Policy Research Organization, shows that 54% of those questioned believe that the quality of life in the county is declining. At the same time, however, the number of people who say they are “very happy” with their personal lives has jumped from 34% in 1982 to 44% this year.

The key to understanding that paradox, says survey director Mark Baldassare, is the wide gap between the reality of suburban sprawl and the small-town dream cherished by so many Orange County residents.

“Confidence in Orange County’s future has never been lower,” according to Baldassare, a professor of social ecology at UC Irvine. “The results show an unprecedented gloominess.”

For the first time since the poll began in 1982, a majority--51%--of those questioned favor construction of new freeways even though they don’t believe that--or anything else--will reduce congestion, Baldassare said.

A special section of the poll devoted to charitable giving shows that Orange County residents talk a good game but don’t deliver.

The survey, released Thursday at UC Irvine, shows that issues such as crime and immigration pale when compared to growth and traffic in the minds of county residents. Seventy-two percent of those questioned ranked traffic and growth as the county’s worst problems compared to 46% in 1985.

The poll, paid for by mostly corporate sponsors and subscribers, was based on telephone interviews of 1,010 people in September.

Surprised by the intensity of the slow-growth sentiment, Baldassare predicted that it will be “very difficult to shake. . . . Politicians will have to be very careful. They are at high risk. . . . These issues (growth and traffic) will be central in the campaigns next year for local offices.”

Orange County Supervisor Don R. Roth said he was astounded by the size of the majority favoring a slow-growth measure. “It’s hard for me to believe that people will vote to lose their jobs,” he observed.

Developer Jim McCormack said he will put together a list of areas for his firm to avoid, based on slow-growth sentiment. But Diane Gaynor, public relations manager for the Santa Margarita Co., developer of the Rancho Santa Margarita planned community in the south county, said, “We’re going to be here for a long time.”

Russ Burkett of San Juan Capistrano, a leader of the effort to qualify a slow-growth measure for the June, 1988, ballot in each of the county’s cities and its unincorporated area, said the cynicism shown in the survey results did not surprise him.

In gathering signatures for his initiative effort, Burkett said, he has heard a lot of people say: “You’re too late. The damage is already done, and this place is ruined.”

Among other survey findings:

- Only 37% of the county’s residents are “very happy” with the county as it is today; 50% say things are going “somewhat well,” and 13% say they’re going “somewhat or very badly.”

- 81% would prefer to live in single-family, detached homes, but only 49% actually do so.

- 47% say they prefer living in a small community, and only 15% want to live in a suburban region.

- 54% say the county will be a worse place to live in the future; 20% predict no change, and 26% believe life will be better.

- Those questioned in the survey opposed a complete ban on local growth and development by a 2-1 margin, but 78% said they favor a slow-growth measure tied to traffic standards in the cities where they live; 74% said they favor such a slow-growth measure for the county, and 68% favor measures for both the county and cities where they live. In the south county, however, 42% favor a total ban on growth.

- At the same time, respondents said they believe that a countywide slow-growth initiative would not help reduce freeway traffic. But 53% said they believe that such an initiative would have a positive effect on job opportunities, and 40% said it would help the housing market.

- The number of respondents who have to commute 20 minutes or more to work has grown from 36% in 1982 to 43% in 1987. Eighty-one percent of the respondents believe few will car-pool or utilize flexible work schedules; 74% say new freeways mean more traffic, and 58% say traffic will only get worse because there are no solutions.

- Mortgage payments have climbed 10% in a year to a median of $686; rental payments have increased 3% to a median of $640.

- The median household donation to charity last year was $262, or 0.6% of median household income, compared to 2.4% for the average U.S. household.

- Median household income in the county grew about 2% since last year to $42,000, the smallest growth in the history of the survey. This slowing is more dramatic if south county affluence is discounted. Median income in the south county rose $5,000 to $48,000, compared to a median of $40,000 for the rest of the county.

The slow-growth questions asked in the survey were based on a description of a ballot measure that varies somewhat from the initiative being circulated by Burkett. The survey described the measure as not allowing new development unless traffic standards are met.

The measure being sought by Burkett would permit development if a developer or government agency is willing to pay for improvements needed to meet traffic standards, if any are needed. Also, Burkett’s measure would condition growth on the availability of parks and on public safety services.

But Baldassare said his description of the measure was close enough to get an early reading of public sentiment on Burkett’s measure. He cautioned, however, that the survey results should not be taken as an indicator of the outcome of an election.

‘Absence of Information’

“We can’t be sure that the public has thought this thing through,” he said. “This is in the absence of information being given to voters prior to an election.”

Because the survey shows that only 35% of the county’s residents would approve a total ban on growth, John Erskine, Huntington Beach mayor and Building Industry Assn. executive director, said opponents of Burkett’s initiative must “educate the public that this is really a no-growth measure.” Ultimately, he said, it would cost some people their jobs.

But Baldassare said the public is likely to distrust that argument if it comes from the messengers most likely to deliver it--builders and developers.

Former Supervisor Bruce Nestande, vice president of Arnel Development Co. in Costa Mesa, said the margin of support for a slow-growth measure can be wiped out with the “right kind of campaign.”

He cited the experience of a statewide ballot measure that several years ago would have imposed new taxes on oil companies. Early polls showed that it was ahead 6 to 1, but it ultimately was defeated by a costly campaign financed largely by the oil industry.

Results Supported Poll

Tom Rogers, Burkett’s neighbor and also a key supporter of the slow-growth measure, said he went into the 1984 election with polls showing that about 70% of Orange County voters opposed a 1-cent sales tax proposal to pay for county transportation projects. That, he said, is about how it turned out on Election Day, despite a well-financed campaign waged by public officials and firms, such as the Irvine Co., that strongly favored it.

Rogers said the survey results showing opposition to complete ban on future development are an indicator of the type of campaign that will be waged against his slow-growth measure.

“They use the phrase no-growth at every forum,” said Rogers, referring to developers. “That’s a campaign of deception and lies because the measure would phase growth, not end it, and they can’t prove otherwise.”

Supervisor Gaddi H. Vasquez, who has tangled with Rogers over the proposed slow-growth measure, said Thursday that he had not read the poll results but agreed with the respondents’ ranking of traffic and growth as the county’s top problems.

He said some of the answers that show renewed interest in freeway construction contradict slow-growth sentiment, so he believes that county officials will want to “study, assess and calculate a great deal” to see “what it all means.”

Baldassare said his experience has convinced him that most Orange County residents want more housing construction and urban amenities but are against expansion of commercial development, especially high-rise.

And although there are plenty of small cities in Orange County, Baldassare said, most residents don’t feel as though they live in one because the cities here “bleed together,” as though they have no borders.

Even in San Clemente, he said, studies of activity patterns show that most people leave the city during the day to work or to shop. Countywide, he said, surveys show that South Coast Plaza is named as a shopping destination by one of every three people.

Baldassare said the 1987 survey shows a strong correlation between income gains and people’s sense of personal well-being.

“In Orange County, it looks like money can buy happiness,” he said. “But people separate their feelings of personal success from their impressions of the community. . . . The results show an unprecedented gloominess.”

Frustration over traffic and housing choices contributes strongly to residents’ feelings about the future, according to Baldassare.

“They want the little house by the freeway,” he said. “They want it all.”