But She Faces Criticism on Reforms : Thatcher’s Political Rule Unchallenged in 3rd Term

Britain’s Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was asked recently to assess the state of her political opposition. Startled, she replied crisply, “Do you know, I have not really given that very much attention. . . . “

The prime minister’s response was widely accepted at face value, a reflection of the extent of her unchallenged domestic power six months into her third term. In terms of longevity, she is already senior among the leaders of the major Western nations, and on Sunday, she will become the longest-serving British prime minister of the 20th Century, surpassing Herbert H. Asquith’s record of eight years and 242 days.

Thatcher’s experience in world affairs, her close rapport with Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev and the absence of any major domestic threat to her rule are expected to provide valuable depth and continuity to Western Alliance diplomacy as the Reagan Administration enters its final months.

With a weak, divided political opposition devoting more energy to internal feuding than to attacking her, and with Britain’s economy among the fastest-growing in Europe, there seems little to prevent her from governing into the 1990s.

“Apart from Winston Churchill at the start of the (second world) war, Mrs. Thatcher is the most powerful prime minister this century,” said Anthony King, a respected political analyst and Essex University social scientist. “She’s skillful, determined, hard-working and getting younger every day.”

In a New Year’s message to the nation Thursday, Thatcher radiated optimism, saying, “We could be on the verge of a new age of freedom and a long period of peace, prosperity and stability such as our people have not known this century.”

Although there has been volatility in the stock market, consumer confidence remains strong in Britain, unemployment continues to decline, and, collectively, Britons probably feel better about themselves than at any time in recent years.

Storm Clouds Gatheirng

Still, behind this picture of invincibility, storm clouds are gathering. Whether these clouds merely signal the end of her third post-election honeymoon with Britain’s voters or something more significant is not clear, but a shift in the public mood is apparent.

Central to this shift is mounting doubt about key elements of her third-term legislative package, acknowledged as the most radical program of domestic reform since the Labor Party shaped the welfare state in 1945.

Her plans to overhaul the country’s educational system and to extend her capitalist crusade by returning the water and electric power services to private ownership have raised apprehension among voters as campaign slogans are transformed into detailed legislative proposals.

Her plan to implement a controversial new levy known disparagingly as “the poll tax” has been received with open hostility.

“There’s widening antipathy and, in some instances, outright antagonism toward these policies,” said Robert M. Worcester, chairman of Market & Opinion Research International (MORI), a polling organization.

Little Support for Reforms

He said post-election MORI polls indicate declines ranging from 11% to 21% in the level of public approval for the Thatcher government’s major reforms.

But it was another issue that placed Thatcher on the political defensive for the first time since her landslide election last June: an unexpected groundswell of public indignation about the chronically ill National Health Service.

Thatcher has consistently defended her record of support for the state-run health service, noting that her governments have increased spending by 30% in real terms since 1979 and presided over the biggest hospital building program since the service was created nearly 40 years ago. But leading doctors contend that skyrocketing costs have left the service critically short of funds and trained personnel.

In recent weeks these contentions have been backed by almost daily reports that hospital wards, some nearly new, are being forced to close because there is no money for personnel to run them.

But it was the saga of a baby named David Barber, who died after being forced to wait six weeks for a heart operation because of personnel shortages, that defined the extent of the crisis and transformed the National Health Service into a major political problem.

Health Care Top Priority

Thatcher responded with an immediate $180 million in emergency Health Service funding--an increase of roughly 1%--but few expect that to resolve the crisis. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a growing number of Britons view improved health care as the country’s top priority.

Thatcher has also faced growing resistance, including a minor revolt in her Conservative Party, to a planned overhaul of local government financing that would replace property taxes with a flat-rate levy on every adult irrespective of income.

Thatcher sees this as a way to curb what she thinks is excessive spending by left-wing local governments, which at present are financed by property owners alone, and to spread the cost of local government among all adults.

Opponents call the proposed levy a poll tax in part because electoral rolls would be used as a means of identifying adult residents. They say it discriminates against pensioners and families with older children.

Under the proposed flat rate, which the government calls a community charge, the average tax is expected to be about $330 per adult, compared to an average under the present property tax of about $825 per dwelling. A family of four that includes two small children would pay $660; this would be doubled if, say, an aged grandmother and an 18-year-old student daughter lived in the house.

20 Million Renters

The estimated 20 million Britons who rent living quarters at present pay no property tax but would pay the same flat rate as property owners under the proposed tax.

The tax was implemented in Scotland earlier this year and has been cited as a key reason why Thatcher’s Conservatives won only 10 of Scotland’s 72 seats in Parliament in last June’s election.

Sensing a similar lack of popularity among English and Welsh voters, 17 of the Conservative members of Parliament bolted and voted against the reform on a procedural issue earlier this month. The attack was led by a previous Conservative prime minister, Edward Heath.

“This bill runs counter to all the long-accepted tenets of the principles of taxation,” Heath declared.

Because the Conservatives have a majority of 102 in the 650-seat House of Commons, party discipline alone is likely to be enough to ensure passage of the bill, though it could be subjected to embarrassing delays in the House of Lords, which has no power to kill proposed legislation but can return it to the lower house.

Loss of Top Aide

The loss of William Whitelaw, deputy prime minister and leader of the House of Lords, who suffered a slight stroke recently, is likely to increase the possibility of problems in the upper house.

But at this stage, Thatcher’s difficulties are small in comparison with crises she has managed to survive.

A year ago she lost two senior Cabinet ministers and barely survived herself in the wake of a scandal involving Britain’s only helicopter builder, Westland. Uncharacteristically, Thatcher failed to quash a Cabinet dispute over whether the financially ailing Westland should be sold to American or European interests. In the end, it became part of United Technologies Corp., an American firm.

For several weeks, Thatcher fought to keep herself from being personally implicated in the leak of a confidential document from her office that discredited her opponents in the affair. Had she been tied directly to the leak, considered a serious breach of government procedure, she would almost certainly have been forced to resign

And, at the height of the 1981 recession, with unemployment rising and Thatcher refusing to consider reflation as a means of dealing with the situation, her personal popularity rating plunged to 25%, the lowest level ever for a British prime minister. Her present rating is about 50%.

Little Personal Popularity

Still, Thatcher has rarely been a wildly popular figure, invariably scoring below opposition figures like Labor leader Neil Kinnock and Liberal leader David Steel in personality preference polls.

Unlike President Reagan, she has been able only occasionally to count public affection among her political assets.

“Her political strength comes from her ability to wield power within government,” analyst King said. “She’s a complete contrast to President Reagan, who’s been only sporadically successful within his own Administration yet manages to hold the affection of the American people.”

With no credible political opposition to challenge her policies, the biggest danger, some think, would be for her to believe she is unassailable and to ignore growing public resistance to unpopular reforms.

Asked to name the biggest potential difficulty facing Thatcher as she nears the end of nine years in power, pollster Worcester replied with a single word, “hubris,” which Webster’s New World Dictionary defines as “wanton insolence or arrogance resulting from excessive pride.”