Confusion as Caucuses Near : Prodigal and a Wild Card Clouding Races in Iowa

Just one month before the Feb. 8 Iowa caucuses--the first real electoral battle of the 1988 presidential contest--the political landscape in Iowa appears confused and uncertain, clouded by the sudden return of a once-fallen prodigal candidate on the Democratic side and shrouded in mystery by the unknown power of a former evangelical preacher and the lingering after-effects of the Iran-Contra scandal among the Republicans.

Gary Hart’s stunning re-entry into the Democratic presidential race--and his even more surprising return to front-runner status in the polls here--has forced candidates and political analysts alike to discard conventional wisdom and admit that the dynamics of this year’s Democratic campaign in Iowa still elude them.

On the surface, the Republican race seems somewhat more orderly, with the makings of a two-man contest between Vice President George Bush and Kansas Sen. Bob Dole. But both professional politicians find themselves looking over their shoulders at former television evangelist Pat Robertson, who remains the wild card here. At the same time, new disclosures about Bush’s inside knowledge of the Iran-Contra affair are again dogging him on the campaign trail, threatening to distract attention from the themes he plans to espouse during the final stretch drive in Iowa.

Many believe that that final drive begins tonight, when the Republican candidates gather in Des Moines for a major debate that will be televised statewide; the Democrats hold a debate a week later.

Although there have been numerous debates around the nation during the last few months, these forums carry the special imprimatur of the Des Moines Register, Iowa’s influential statewide newspaper, and are being held at a time when many voters are beginning to focus on the campaign and make their choices.

“This is the real campaign now, this is when people tune in,” said Terry Michael, spokesman for Sen. Paul Simon (D-Ill.).

For the Republicans, tonight’s debate carries the added suspense of how the increasingly tense rivalry between Bush and Dole will play itself out after several days in which both men have bared their teeth at each other.

Chance to Measure Hart

For the Democrats, next week’s debate will be their first opportunity to measure the new Hart shoulder to shoulder against his rivals, and it may thus help determine whether he remains a serious threat in the closing weeks of the Iowa campaign.

Still, few bets are being offered now on the outcome.

“What’s going to happen in Iowa? I haven’t a clue,” Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis said ruefully.

So, in this free-for-all climate, the candidates, sensing opportunity and searching for a crucial opening, have begun a frenzied, monthlong push, pouring in armies of staff and tons of money, saturating the air waves with television commercials and blanketing the state with personal appearances. Each hopes to catch the media wave that could carry Iowa’s winner on to New Hampshire and beyond, thus making the months or even years of drudgery, of crisscrossing the state in mini-vans and small planes, finally seem worthwhile.

The big drive began New Year’s weekend, when Iowans traditionally begin to focus their attention on the caucus race. Almost every major Democratic campaign dramatically expanded its staffing levels, and most kicked off media blitzes with television commercials in every major city in the state. Now, Simon, Dukakis, Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt and former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt have more than 100 paid staff members apiece in the state. Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. has pulled out of Iowa to concentrate on the South.

Jackson Not Using TV

The Rev. Jesse Jackson is the only other major Democratic candidate competing in Iowa who has not expanded his staff, now 15, or bought television air time.

Except, of course, for the quixotic Hart, who makes the first Iowa appearance of his revived campaign today without the luxury of a large staff or the other trappings of a contender.

But he arrives with the things all his rivals envy--massive media attention and the lead in the polls. In a new Gallup poll released this week, Hart was favored by 34% of the Iowa Democrats surveyed, far ahead of the rest of the candidate pack. Simon, the previous front-runner, was in second, with the support of 16%; Gephardt had 15%, Dukakis 13%, Jackson 7%, Babbitt 2% and Gore, just 1%.

Hart’s re-entry seems to have scrambled the pecking order that was beginning to develop here late last year; Iowa caucus-goers, confused and startled by Hart and still unsure about the others in the race, have apparently delayed making their final decisions on the candidates.

Although crowds at campaign stops this week for Simon, Dukakis and Gephardt were much larger than they had been earlier in the campaign--and all three candidates seemed to be drawing voters attending events for the first time--many in the crowds confessed that they still didn’t know whom to vote for.

Most ‘Still Undecided’

“Iowans have gone nuts trying to keep track of these candidates,” said Bob Thomas, a teacher and Democratic activist who came to hear Simon speak in Centerville. “I think most people are still undecided.”

A CBS-New York Times poll to be released today lends support to the contention of many political professionals that much of Hart’s support will not turn out on caucus night. The poll, like the Gallup survey, shows Hart in the lead among all voters sampled. But, in a smaller sample of those most likely to show up for a caucus, Hart’s support plummeted, according to campaign sources who have seen the numbers. But Hart has still clearly slowed down the other front-runners, especially Simon and Dukakis.

“I think the most enduring impact of Hart’s reentry has been to blunt Simon’s momentum, which was really building,” said William Carrick, Gephardt’s national campaign manager.

Haig Closes Operation

On the Republican side, huge professional staffs now surround Bush, Dole and New York Rep. Jack Kemp. Former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV also is aggressively contesting Iowa, but former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr. has closed up his campaign operation here. The non-conventional Roberston organization, as well as his grass-roots support, remains difficult to gauge.

The latest Gallup poll on the Republican side showed Dole holding on to a sizable 44%-29% edge over Bush, with Kemp and Robertson tied for third at 6% each. Du Pont registered just 3%, and Haig 2%.

Those numbers, which back up other recent polls, have touched off a vigorous “expectations game” between front-runners Dole and Bush.

The Bush campaign is now trying to sell the media on the idea that Iowa has virtually become Dole’s “home state,” and thus is a “must win” for the Kansas senator.

Win or ‘It’s Curtains’

“Dole can’t lose, or it’s curtains,” said Bush strategist Rich Bond. “If Bush loses, it won’t be a catastrophic event--we’ll go on to New Hampshire and sweep the South.”

Dole, for his part, is trying to guard against exaggerated expectations. Spokeswoman Katie Boyle called the Gallup poll “inflated” and said, “It’s a dead heat, although the trend lines are in our favor.”

Bush began television advertising in December; Dole and Kemp started theirs after New Year’s Day. Kemp has taken the most aggressive tack, with controversial commercials that accuse Bush and Dole of supporting higher taxes over the years.

As for Robertson, curiosity about his potential is not confined to rival campaigns and political professionals, whose predictions on his finish are murky. Rank-and-file GOP voters are scratching their heads, too, wondering if his church-based flocks of supporters, most of whom are newcomers to caucus politics, can be rallied in large enough numbers to overwhelm GOP regulars.

“I wouldn’t bet against that damned minister. He scares me,” Marshalltown insurance man and Republican traditionalist Wendel Haupert said.

If all this seems confusing from a distance, it’s no less so for those in the thick of the battle. Even knowledgeable activist voters like Wayne Roberts, a Knoxville, Iowa, farmer and a Democrat, are amazed to still be looking after seeing so much.