Video Revolution Clicks Into Fast-Forward : Consumers to Get Look at Super VHS, but Companies May See Lower Profits

Video fans can expect 1988 to be a Super year in video--literally. Video companies , on the other hand, are buckling down for diminished profits.

On the consumer side of things, this could be the most exciting year yet. Most people will get their first look at just how super Super VHS is. This improved home-video format is noticeably sharper than any previous one, providing an image that tops even many professional (one-inch) videotape systems.

However, Super VHS and such other impending developments as CD-Video aren’t enough to keep the people in the video business from biting their nails.

Storm warnings are out for the entire consumer electronics field. Some of the reasons are the same ones that concern other industries: the stock market’s unpredictability, the trade deficit, the devalued dollar, etc. But video firms--both hardware (machines) and software (tapes and discs)--have their own bugaboos.

Among them: consumer confusion over too many old and new formats, rising prices in several areas (2%-to-8% hikes in VCRs, TVs and blank videocassettes are already being implemented this month). And the VCR boom may finally bump its head against a ceiling: In 1987, the 50% line was crossed in the number of American homes with at least one VCR.

However, other than contending with slightly higher prices, consumers won’t find much reason to hang their heads. On the way are more choices and more quality than ever before--in both hardware and software.

Above all, there’ll be Super VHS.

Introduced to the American public late in 1987, the “new and improved” videocassette format is making only gradual progress with purchasers--a mere 250,000 Super-VHS recorders have been sold. So far, though, Super-VHS models are expensive and are carried only by select stores. Many consumers haven’t even heard of the system.

That situation should change drastically this year, with Super VHS dominating the video market by the early ‘90s. As more people actually view the Super-VHS image in showrooms, with its approximately 450 lines of resolution (compared to about 240 for regular VHS), more of them are going to want the JVC-developed format.

The big catch is extra expenditure. Not just for the Super-VHS VCRs ($1,100-up now, though that will drop). But also for television monitors that have enough resolution and the separate “Y/C” connectors needed to get the full benefit of a Super-VHS signal. And those will run $500-up.

And we’re not through. Since it’ll be a while until Super-VHS prerecorded tapes arrive at video stores, that means you’ll also need a Super-VHS camcorder to take full advantage of your system. Count in another $1,000-plus. Yipes.

Merchants are obviously hoping that the trend toward “high-end” TVs in ‘87--due to features like stereo decoding (MTS) and the newly developed 35-inch non-projection screens--will extend to ‘88’s Super-VHS-capable sets.

So maybe we shouldn’t feel too sorry for the video industry. Here are a couple of other reasons why the video boom should continue through this and coming years, even though the boom may boom more softly:

--Entertainment businesses are among the least hurt in hard economic times, and home entertainment is increasingly becoming the first choice for people who are trying to forget about all the bad news.

--Many consumers will be adding second (even third) VCRs, or switching from cheap models to full-featured ones for digital effects, hi-fi stereo sound, MTS decoding and other goodies. And quite a few will say, “If I’m spending this much money, I might as well get a Super VHS.”

Several other developments will share the video marquee with Super-VHS in 1988. Look for that magical term “digital”--already the star buzzword of ‘87--to continue playing a big part.

Digital circuitry is full of wonders. By running a VCR’s or TV’s analog signal through it, electronics engineers are finding all sorts of interesting ways to manipulate the image. Some are useful: jitter-free freeze frames, picture-in-picture, reduced interference. Others are just fun: “painting” new colors onto your video images and playing with them in other ways.

There’ll be new digital effects this year, too, such as “zoom,” which enlarges a section of the picture. Picture-in-picture effects will expand to allow watching four or more channels at once on a single set.

Another hot word in video equipment is, paradoxically, sound . MTS-equipped TVs and VCRs are going to be in tremendous demand in ‘88, because they decode broadcast stereo signals (all you need is MTS in one or the other).

In fact, anything that enhances sound will move fast off the shelves this year--as viewers discover that they can hook up their TVs and VCRs to amplifiers and speakers, Dolby surround-sound decoders, and sound processors that add reverberation and other effects. Watching a movie or concert on tape with these additions makes for a whole different experience from plain-wrap TV.

Also, on the visual side, expect video special-effects generators to become more widespread--especially if more home-video companies incorporate anti-recording devices into their tapes. Many special-effect generators counteract these devices and enhance images, besides providing bizarre, picture-altering effects.

What about videodisc? Wasn’t the new CD-Video (sort of a cross between compact disc and LaserVision) supposed to have also made its public debut in late ‘87?

Right. However, following a splashy preview at the Summer Consumer Electronics Show, CD-V discs (holding 20 minutes of music plus a 5-minute video clip) failed to show up for their scheduled fall debut. Plans have been pushed back to spring of ’88. Developed primarily for overexposed pop-music video, CD-V is looking more and more like a miscalculation.

However, current LV videodiscs should hold their own--especially since machines made to play CD-V discs (a couple are already on the market) will also play LV discs and regular CDs. Though selling for $600 and up, these versatile disc players should be the videodisc gear of choice in ‘88, no matter how CD-V fares.

LaserVision offers almost as many lines of resolution as Super VHS (420 to 450) and has unparalleled hi-fi stereo sound. There’s a new surge of faith in the system; Sony, for example, will be introducing its first-ever videodisc players in the first half of ’88.

However, the system’s still stuck with its chief drawback: It can’t record. When it can , though, Super VHS may get its first big challenge. Unless HDTV comes first.

Meanwhile, we’ll be seeing the development and possible availability of other laser-tracking disc systems this year. For example, Philips and others are touting CD-I (the “I” stands for interactive) as the most versatile format for storing and displaying visual information. And Warner New Media has just demonstrated yet another approach called CD Plus Graphics.

Back on the videotape front: In the early months of ‘88, Sony plans to begin marketing an immediate challenger to Super VHS--the ED Beta system (ED stands for extended definition). The Japanese giant already showed off an early, impressive prototype at Chicago’s Summer Consumer Electronics Show.

ED Beta’s chances?

Terrible. There’s no lack of quality to this system, but the quantity of people still interested in any Beta format has shrunk drastically. ED Beta will have an uphill battle. Uphill? Picture climbing Mt. Fuji with about 10 VCRs strapped to your back. In a blizzard.

As more people get VCRs--Super VHS or otherwise--more will show up at video stores, looking for movies and other tapes that, as often as not, aren’t in stock.

One result you should see as the year progresses: bigger video stores.

There are several reasons. Videotape vendors have realized that people want a greater variety of videos. And not just movies. Consumers are reading about tapes that show you how to fix your plumbing or how to shop for a used car or grow a tomato patch. And about a zillion other things. They want their favorite old TV shows, “Superman” serials from the early ‘50s, silent films that have been restored for video. And not everyone wants to get these tapes by mail order--often the only way they could be obtained in 1987.

Something else is going on at video stores. Especially back East, they’re beginning to stock more than videos. A lot more: including CDs, VCRs, video accessories and better selections of blank tape. And when Super VHS catches on, they’ll have to contend with offering both Super-VHS and VHS copies of “Three Men and a Baby” and other ’88 cassette releases--not to mention Beta, 8mm and videodisc versions.

The day of the spreading mom-and-pop store is almost over. The era of the video emporium is almost here.

Retailers’ biggest challenge will come from cable, which will try to increase VCR owners’ interest in taping extra-fee movies (on “pay per view” or “viewer’s choice”) rather than renting them. Look for some startling instances of movies going from theatrical release to pay-cable telecast in very short times.

No one’s expecting this to slow down video rentals and sales too much in ’88. Certainly not movie studios like Orion and Tri-Star. Orion started its own home-video company in late ‘87; Tri-Star launches its in early ’88. Expect video promotion to become a far greater slice of the media blitz--ads for cassettes will inundate TV; more celebrities will jump on the host-my-own-video bandwagon. Maybe there’ll even be an Oliver North exercise tape.

How much will it cost to rent a video in ‘88? More--but not a lot more. The business is very competitive, so bargain rentals should still be the rule. Buyers of prerecorded tapes will generally see two price categories: under $30 for tapes that the home-video companies hope to “sell-through” to consumers and $60-$90 for the ones they figure they can sell only to video stores (for rentals).

The most subtle big video story of ’88 may be the gradual shift from merely passively watching video to shooting it yourself. Active video.

Camcorders, already available in several formats (including Super VHS) and from myriad companies, will go into more households and on more trips.

Look for less of an emphasis on decreasing size and weight (the limits have just about been reached) and more attention to such features as high-speed shutters (for shooting in low light), automatic mechanisms (where focus and just about everything else adjusts itself), digital effects and even 3-D.

And so the video revolution will continue-with ups and downs-throughout what’s left of the Electronic Eighties. Of course, that means accepting the good with the bad. For instance, just think what’s going to happen when everyone you know has a camcorder.