Missiles and Nuclear Arms Heighten Third World Risk

The United States and the Soviet Union seem to be cranking down their nuclear-arms race. But another nuclear-missile race may be just down the road--this one among Third World countries.

Many experts have long felt that if nuclear war ever comes it won’t start with a surprise attack by one superpower on the other. It is more likely to begin with a nuclear exchange between two Third World adversaries, with the obvious danger that the United States and the Soviet Union would be drawn in.

For two decades now there has been an international effort to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. The anti-proliferation program has worked after a fashion.

But India exploded a nuclear device in 1974, and is assumed to have a weapons-making capacity. Israel is believed to have components for an arsenal of at least 25 nuclear weapons. South Africa is on everybody’s suspect list, and Pakistan is apparently on the verge of a nuclear-weapons capability. Libyan strongman Moammar Kadafi has long been reported in the market for a ready-made nuclear arsenal.

Throw in the prospect of a marriage between nuclear weapons and medium-range missiles, and you have the makings of a scary situation.

The Israelis have already tested a ballistic missile capable of nuking Arab capitals 500 to 900 miles away. The same missile could reach targets in the southern Soviet Union, which presumably accounts for the protests lodged by Moscow.

Israel has long depended on exports of arms, including jet fighters and air-to-air missiles, to help defray the cost of its own defense forces. If the decision is made to deploy medium-range missiles, you have to assume that these, too, will end up on the world market.

India is developing a new rocket for its civilian space program that reportedly could be converted into a ballistic missile with a reach of up to 2,500 miles. That is more than adequate to hit targets in neighboring Pakistan and China.

The emergence of nuclear-capable missile forces in Israel or India would probably set off countermoves by Pakistan and Israel’s Arab adversaries.

According to U.S. sources, China has already lent Pakistan a helping hand with its nuclear-weapons program. It conceivably would do the same with missiles. That would unsettle Moscow as well as India.

As for the Arab states, obtaining nuclear weapons would be a tough though not necessarily insurmountable problem. They might encounter no comparable difficulty in buying medium-range missiles.

Enter Brazil, which to a far greater extent than most people realize is already a big-league arms supplier.

Brazil’s Engesa Group is said to be the largest manufacturer of armored vehicles outside the Soviet Bloc. Brazil boasts a sophisticated, world-class aircraft industry and is already exporting battlefield missiles.

Furthermore, Brazilians will sell to anyone. They have been especially successful in the Middle East, where Brazilian-made weapons and vehicles have been sold in large numbers to both radical and conservative Muslim countries.

Some Pentagon officials are concerned that Brazil will be ready to sell missiles with a range of 700 miles by the mid-1990s.

Meanwhile, Argentina is said to be collaborating with Egypt on a solid-fuel rocket with a range of around 100 miles.

It all adds up to a frightening situation.

Although Third World countries themselves stand to be in the most direct peril, there is no guarantee that medium-range missiles in the hands of nuclear mini-powers would not someday be used against population centers in southern Europe, the Soviet Union and U.S. military bases in the Mediterranean area.

The prospect of nuclear-capable missiles in the hands of a regional adversary could trigger preemptive attacks by nervous neighbors to prevent it from happening. Israel and India come to mind, but the superpowers themselves could feel compelled to act if their own security appeared threatened.

Maybe the nightmare of nuclear proliferation won’t really happen; the danger is still a few years down the road. The United States, Japan, Canada and the major European allies have taken the situation seriously enough to agree last April to impose controls on exports of certain missile-relevant technologies.

The effort makes sense, but it is hard to work up much confidence that the controls will work.

We may begin finding out on Feb. 1, the deadline for a Reagan Administration progress report to the Senate.

If the controls are to be effective, Washington and the allies must be willing to enforce them in the face of counter-vailing foreign-policy considerations.

U.S. reluctance to penalize India, Pakistan or Israel for seeming transgressions against nuclear proliferation safeguards is not an encouraging precedent. The European record is even less impressive.

Also, cooperation is needed not only from the Soviets, who have plenty of reason to help, but also from Brazil, India and Israel--a prospect that has to be called doubtful.

Yet if we end up with some new fingers on the nuclear trigger--possibly itchy fingers at best--this is going to become a very dangerous world. So dangerous that the idea of anti-missile defenses could become very attractive in places well removed from Moscow and Washington.