Cooperation or Conflict : Study Projects ‘Alarming’ Mideast Water Shortage

Before the end of the century, possibly as early as 1995, Israel and its Arab neighbors will face such severe shortages of water that they will either have to cooperate in solving the problem or go to war over how to divide the dwindling supplies, according to a private research project.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, reporting the results of a 15-month investigation, said that almost all of the usable water in the Middle East’s major river systems--the Nile, Jordan and Tigris-Euphrates--is already being used. Expected population growth and industrial development in the next dozen years will result in dramatic shortages, it said.

“The prognosis for Egypt, Jordan, Israel, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, Syria and Iraq is especially alarming,” the report said. “If present consumption patterns continue, emerging water shortages, combined with a deterioration in water quality, will lead to more desperate competition and conflict.”

Aggravated by Politics

Joyce Starr, the project director and chief of the center’s Near East Studies program, told a press conference this week that the developing crisis is aggravated by the political tensions of the region. Although water has been a precious commodity in the semi-arid region for thousands of years, the extent of the coming problem has been covered up by the regional governments, none of which wants to admit its own weakness to its neighbors, Starr said.

Because all the rivers cross international boundaries, many projects intended to improve the water situation in one country would aggravate problems in another.

For instance, the report said, Syria plans to build a series of dams on the Yarmuk River, a tributary of the Jordan, which could divert up to 40% of the stream’s flow, producing instant shortages in Jordan and Israel. Wars have been fought over less significant provocations.

The report said that the problems can be solved only by the use of advanced technology and by creative diplomacy. Massive spending on dam and aqueduct projects is not enough because the rivers of the region are already used to their capacities, it said.

The report urged the United States to establish a U.S.-Middle East water program that would bring together experts from the region and U.S. scientists to develop a technological response to the crisis. Possible approaches include desalination of ocean water, improved conservation and more efficient agricultural uses.

Starr said that she envisions experts from the Arab nations, the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip, Israel and the United States working in the same laboratories in this country.

“If you asked the Arabs to go to Israel and work with the Israelis, I am sure they would say no,” Starr said. “But if you ask them to come to the United States and work with American experts, they are eager.”

Starr admitted that the plan faces formidable political obstacles.

Although there has been some quiet cooperation between Israel and Jordan on water allocation for at least 30 years, most Arab states are reluctant to be publicly identified with programs that also include Israel.

“If they don’t want to see each other, they don’t have to,” Starr said. “But if we wait for a peace process between Israel and Jordan or Israel and the Palestinians, it will be too late.”

Although Starr said the water project “would not be another guise for the peace process,” it seems clear that if Israel and its Arab neighbors were to succeed in combatting their common water problems, it could have an impact on overall relations between the countries of the region.

Lobbying Effort Planned

Starr said that she and her colleagues would devote 1988 to a lobbying effort to win congressional approval for the plan.

The report said that Turkey is the only country in the region which can anticipate ample water supplies in the next century. By the year 2000, it said, Israel’s water needs will exceed the supply by 30%. Jordan will face a 20% deficit.

The situation is even more critical on the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Gaza--one of the world’s most-congested areas--already has a severe water shortage.

“If things continue as they are today, Gaza’s only hope is that Israel will share its water with Gaza,” Starr said. “I don’t think that is very likely.”

Egypt, which is almost totally dependent on the Nile, will have to increase its water supply by 15%. But it may have difficulty even maintaining its present supply because of drought in the headwaters of the Nile. In the last seven years, the lake behind the Aswan High Dam has dropped by 50 feet.

“We are virtually certain that by the year 2000, Egypt will be in critical condition,” Starr said. “It has no policies presently in place to prevent that.”