Gephardt Doubles Support in Iowa, Poll Shows

Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt has doubled his support level in the past 4 weeks and now leads Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis 32% to 19% in the latest Iowa presidential preference poll, the Gallup organization reported Tuesday.

Illinois Sen. Paul Simon was third at 15%, followed by former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart, 13%; former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt, 6%, and the Rev. Jesse Jackson, 6%. Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., who is not campaigning in the state, registered virtually no support.

On the Republican side, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole maintained a comfortable lead over Vice President George Bush, 39% to 27%. New York Rep. Jack Kemp received 10%; former television evangelist Pat Robertson, 8%; former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV, 6%, and former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr., 1%.

The surge in support comes at a critical time for Gephardt, just days before the caucuses are held on Monday. However, Simon and Dukakis are still very much in the race, especially when the views of Democrats most likely to attend the caucuses are isolated. Among that group, Gephardt is the favorite of 27%, compared to 24% for Dukakis and 19% for Simon.

‘Got to Convert Support’

“Gephardt seems to be picking up support, but it is probably coming fastest from those least likely to attend the caucuses,” Los Angeles Times political analyst William Schneider said. “He’s got to convert that support into turnout at the caucuses.”

The poll results must be measured against relative organizational strength in the state, and “therefore the race is probably much tighter” than the poll indicates, he said.

Gallup noted that Dukakis “is in a position to make use of his organization, rated the best among the Democratic candidates by party leaders nationally.” In addition, Simon does particularly well among college graduates, a group usually overrepresented among caucus goers.

Gallup said Dole is “benefitting from disaffection with Ronald Reagan among Iowa voters.” Reagan’s approval rating in the state is at an all-time low, and Dole leads Bush by a 5-1 margin among Republicans who disapprove of Reagan.

Bush has gained little, if anything, in Iowa from his on-air confrontation with CBS anchorman Dan Rather last week, Gallup said.

The poll of 529 Republican voters and 577 Democratic voters concluded Sunday. It has a margin of error of 5% in either direction.