Taiwan Looks for New Era After Chiang; Collective Rule May Enhance Democracy

The death of President Chiang Ching-kuo has left Taiwan looking toward a new era that holds the promise of more democracy but also poses possible threats to the liberal reforms he promoted during the final years of his life.

After four decades of strongman rule--first by his father, the late Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, and then by the younger Chiang--political power now rests with a collective leadership headed by Lee Teng-hui, the former vice president, who moved to the presidency when Chiang died Jan. 13 of a heart attack.

Lee, 65, is an American-educated economist and native Taiwanese widely viewed as a liberal supporter of democratic reforms who rose with Chiang’s support but lacks a strong political power base of his own.

‘Historic Turning Point’

“This is a historic turning point,” said Chou Ching-yu, a national assemblywoman prominent in the opposition Democratic Progressive Party. “This is the end of the Chiang era. We hope it is the beginning of a system of democratic rule by law.

“We think maybe there will be some difficulty, but people will insist on reform and improvement of the political situation. It is very clear that the majority of people will ask for systematic rule by law, not rule by the military or by one man.”

Ma Ying-chiu, deputy secretary general of the ruling Nationalist Party, said that Chiang’s death will not slow the pace of reform.

“First of all, it is part of our ideals to have constitutional democracy,” Ma said. “Secondly, the society here has become so affluent, and the people so educated, they certainly want to make their voices heard in the political process. Any political party must reflect social realities. So we believe the time has come to move to a more advanced stage of constitutional democracy.”

Recent Advances

In the last seven months, the Nationalist government here has lifted martial law, legalized the formation of opposition political parties and eased a 38-year ban on travel to China. All these actions were taken under Chiang’s leadership over the opposition of hard-line conservatives within the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang.

The two key additional reforms being planned now, Ma said, are “parliamentary replenishment”--which primarily means filling more seats in the Legislative Yuan and National Assembly by elections in Taiwan--and “the strengthening of local government.”

The majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan, the highest lawmaking body, and the National Assembly, which elects the president, are held by people elected four decades ago on the Chinese mainland, before the Nationalists were defeated by the Communists and fled to this island. The mayors of Taiwan’s two biggest cities, Taipei and Kaohsiung, are appointed by the national government. Reforms in these two areas thus would increase the democratic elements in Taiwan’s system.

Last week, the Nationalist Party approved a plan to encourage the voluntary retirement of elderly legislators and National Assembly members and increase the number of seats filled by elections in Taiwan.

Ma said plans for greater local autonomy will be announced later this year.

Some in Taiwan, however, question whether the reforms favored by Ma and other relatively liberal members of the Nationalist Party will proceed smoothly now that Chiang is gone.

Brother Still Powerful

And while the presidency is no longer held by a Chiang family member, the late president’s younger brother, Chiang Wei-kuo, secretary general of the National Security Council, remains a powerful figure. Some believe he will help ensure the military’s loyalty to the collective leadership, while others regard him as a potential rival to Lee for influence within the Nationalist Party.

“There are some people who are unhappy about Lee Teng-hui becoming president,” said a longtime foreign resident of Taiwan who has closely followed political events here. “The question is: In the past four years (since Lee became vice president), have these people--in their positions and numbers--been so substantially weakened that they are unable to alter the course of reform?”

Kang Ning-hsiang, a prominent Democratic Progressive Party member of the Legislative Yuan, said he is “a little worried whether things will go smoothly the next three or six months or year.”

Leery of Conservatives

“It would have been better if Chiang Ching-kuo had started the reforms a year or two sooner, or had lived a year or two longer,” he said. “We are afraid the conservative wing of the Nationalist Party may use the excuse of his death to stop or slow these steps toward democracy.”

Lee will serve as president until the expiration of Chiang’s term in 1990, and could then stand for reelection by the National Assembly, which also is controlled by Nationalist Party members elected on the Chinese mainland in the late 1940s.

On Wednesday, the party’s Central Standing Committee named Lee as acting party chairman. The appointment was widely seen as strengthening his position.

A permanent chairman will be elected at the Nationalist Party’s 13th Congress, scheduled for July.

Before the party committee’s action, the foreign analyst said it would be a key indication of whether Lee will be a weak or strong president.

May ‘Scratch Our Heads’

“If Lee Teng-hui gets it, things are still moving in the reform direction,” he said. “If they have to back off and compromise (on someone else as party chairman), we will have to scratch our heads and try to figure out what the next step will be.”

Opposition legislator Kang agreed on the importance of the party post.

“If Lee Teng-hui is both president and (party) chairman, his strength will be greater,” Kang said.

Among Lee’s strengths, Kang said, are that he is a native Taiwanese--the first ever to become president of the Republic of China, as Taiwan calls itself--and that he enjoys support from Taiwanese entrepreneurs and Americans.

‘Looks Like John Wayne’

“He has a degree from Cornell University and he looks like John Wayne,” Kang said. “He is very handsome and Westernized.”

But Kang said he believes that other members of the collective leadership currently are more powerful than Lee. This includes, he said, Nationalist Party Secretary General Lee Huan, Premier Yu Kuo-hua, military Chief of Staff Hau Po-tsun and Chiang Wei-kuo.

“Chiang Wei-kuo is the most important,” Kang said. “He is the person with the most connections in the armed forces. If the military came to enjoy great power, Chiang Wei-kuo has the most powerful connections within the military machine.”

Soong Mei-ling, Chiang Kai-shek’s widow, returned to Taiwan in late 1986 after living in New York for many years. Chiang Hsiao-wu, the son of Chiang Ching-kuo, recently returned to Taiwan from Singapore, where he is deputy head of Taiwan’s trade office.

Less Powerful

A few years ago, both Madame Chiang Kai-shek and Chiang Hsiao-wu were seen as potentially powerful in any succession struggle. But Chiang Ching-kuo declared in 1986 that no member of the Chiang family would succeed him. That statement, together with Madame Chiang’s advanced age and Chiang Hsiao-wu’s lack of a political power base, appears to leave them with relatively small roles to play.

“If there were a case of real confusion, pushing and shoving, no clear leadership established and people worried about the economy, one could expect that some would turn to the tried-and-true Chiang family for a successor,” said the foreign analyst. “But that looks very unlikely.”