Politics 88 : Bush’s Iowa Loss Seen Opening N.H. Up for Dole, Conservatives

Now the Republicans turn full attention to the Granite State, land of flinty stares, measured applause and political upsets.

For months, the lineup for the GOP presidential nomination in New Hampshire mirrored the national picture; polls ranked Bush first and Dole a distant second, with the rest of the pack mired in low-digit doldrums. In eight of the last nine primaries, New Hampshire Republicans have chosen the candidate who went on to become the party’s nominee. For a while, this year, it felt like deja vu all over again.

But that was then.

“Now, it’s a brand new race, and it’s every man for himself,” said New Hampshire Rep. Robert C. Smith on the steps of the state Capitol Tuesday morning.

Conservatives May Gain

Kansas Sen. Bob Dole, the winner of the Iowa caucuses, was trailing Bush by 20 points in statewide polls as recently as Sunday but now is being spoken of as a front-runner by some rivals. Moreover, the party’s four conservative candidates, languishing here for months, may acquire new life if Bush’s conservative support begins to unravel.

If that happens, New York Rep. Jack Kemp could have his first crack at contention. In Iowa, Kemp could not compete with fellow conservative Pat Robertson, the former television evangelist who came in second behind Dole. But Robertson lacks a broad religious base in New Hampshire, and Kemp recently has shown signs of catching fire here.

There is a color-coded map of New Hampshire on the wall of Kemp’s campaign office here that offers a good clue to conservative strategy this year. The map highlights the towns and villages in which people voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980, the year he took the primary away from Bush. Conservative candidates believe those voters are ready to repudiate Bush once again.

Bush’s hopes ride on a statewide organization second to none.

“Our supporters are prepared,” said Ron Kaufman, who heads the Bush campaign in the northeast part of the state. “From day one, we told them Bush would lose Iowa, that Bob Dole and Iowa were kissing cousins.”

Bush Camp Jolted

The vice president’s third-place finish did come as a jolt to his camp here. “Still, we think we are ready here,” said Andy Card, the New Hampshire coordinator for the Bush campaign.

Time is a key factor in this year’s primary. In 1980, the last time there was a wide-open Republican primary here, Reagan had about a month to rebound from his defeat in Iowa. This year, Bush has only a week to overcome perceptions that Dole is a winner and Robertson a comer.

“The thing that I would be concerned about is if all we hear about during the next week is what happened in Iowa. If that’s the message, it will be hard for the vice president to make himself known,” said New Hampshire Rep. Judd Gregg, who, along with Gov. John H. Sununu, is one of Bush’s most prominent backers.

For Dole, New Hampshire offers a chance to show that his victory in Iowa was based on something more than regional favoritism. In addition, Dole is playing a hunch that the state’s tremendous population growth has diluted its rock-ribbed conservatism, creating a more hospitable climate for Dole’s message of compassion toward poor and disabled people and minorities.

“New Hampshire’s population growth is (primarily among) fiscal conservatives, but we believe it is more toward the center on other issues,” said Tom Rath, a former attorney general here who is Dole’s chief strategist in New Hampshire.

Aiming at Same Voters

In many ways, Dole’s message in New Hampshire has sounded like Bush’s. Both deplore the federal budget deficit, extol the recent nuclear arms treaty with the Soviet Union and vow to protect Social Security, improve education and cleanse the environment. Thus, they appear to be reaching out to the same voters.

To help define the differences, Bush aides say, they may argue that Dole is the candidate of Midwestern farm interests.

Meanwhile, Dole is already airing a television ad that graphically derides Bush’s leadership ability.

With Bush and Dole fighting it out for the party’s center, another battle will go on for the support of conservatives. One of the ironies of the Reagan era is that its resurgent conservatism has not led to a groundswell of support in New Hampshire for any of the party’s right-wing candidates.

The Manchester Union Leader, the state’s largest and most influential newspaper, is backing former Delaware Gov. Pierre (Pete) du Pont IV, while Sen. Gordon J. Humphrey backs Kemp, and former Gov. Meldrim Thomson, the dean emeritus of New Hampshire conservatives, is working for Robertson. Former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr. has the least number of well-known supporters.

Haig and Du Pont have both indicated that a poor showing in New Hampshire could mean the end of the road.

Kemp Surges in Polls

Only Kemp has shown signs of life here. His recent surge in the polls coincided with a series of boisterous attacks on Bush and Dole, accusing the two of favoring higher taxes and oil import fees.

Tuesday, Kemp was in full voice, insisting that New Hampshire was his kind of place, full of “radical, revolutionary, bleeding-heart conservatives like me.”

Despite beating Bush in Iowa, Robertson is not giddy about his prospects here, a state with a relatively small core of evangelical voters and a traditional skepticism toward mixing politics and religion. Public opinion polls consistently have given Robertson negative ratings of 50% or better.

Ministry Not Mentioned

Much of Robertson’s message here has avoided any reference to his long career as a minister. It has focused instead on his opposition to abortion, his vehement anti-communism and his mistrust of liberals in government and education.

The intensity of the campaign, coupled with explosive population growth in the southern area of the state, has generated unprecedented voter enthusiasm, according to William Gardner, New Hampshire’s secretary of state.

“The last two weekends, people have been standing in long lines to register. I haven’t seen that in a long time,” said Gardner, who is predicting a 75% turnout Tuesday, the highest ever among registered voters.

THE IOWA VOTE Democrats Final report on the percentage of delegates each candidate will control at Iowa’s state convention, which will then elect the delegates to the National Democratic Convention. Richard Gephardt 31.24% Paul Simon 26.68% Michael Dukakis 22.21% Jesse Jackson 8.83% Bruce Babbitt 6.13% Uncommitted 4.54% Gary Hart 0.31% Al Gore 0.01% Others 0.05% Republicans The GOP caucus process differs from the Democrat’s. The Republicans took a straw poll and will pick national convention delegates at a series of meetings in the spring in a process largely unrelated to Monday night’s caucuses. Here are the straw poll results, with 98% of precincts reporting: Bob Dole 37% Pat Robertson 25% George Bush 19% Jack Kemp 11% Pierre du Pont 7% Alexander Haig --% No preference 1% Source: UPI