For Campaigns, 2 Pit Stops in S. Dakota and Minnesota

Yes, the campaign for President now moves South. But, ah, that’s South Dakota.

And to that other famous bayou region, Minnesota, too.

Super Tuesday’s Southern primaries on March 8 loom powerfully over America as the crucial, perhaps climactic, elections of the 1988 nominating season.

Pesky Stops in Between

But there are pesky stops tucked away in the election calendar before then--and two of them are next Tuesday when the heartland’s Ice Belt once again beckons.

South Dakota conducts a primary that day; Minnesota caucuses are that night.

Some back-benchers have high hopes in these two states. Illinois Sen. Paul Simon of the Democrats says he must win one or retire. New York Rep. Jack Kemp among the Republicans needs more than anything to break out here. And Democratic Sen. Albert Gore Jr. of Tennessee has his eyes on a surprise.

South Dakota used to hold its presidential primary in June with California and New Jersey. It was called the “fly-over primary” owing to the irritating fact nobody was paying a whit of attention to a state with barely 750,000 people sandwiched between two mighty urban centers.

So, this Tuesday is South Dakota’s bid to stand apart.

State Taken Seriously

Obligingly, the 1988 campaign for President has taken South Dakota seriously.

Vice President George Bush aired his first TV ads of the campaign here last December. According to local officials, there have been almost 60 separate candidate visits here so far. Some campaign staffs here number up to 50 people. Almost every local pol in the state has enjoyed being courted and swept into the fray.

For all the early campaign work, however, this may be the state where the 1988 campaign changes from an organizational battle to one of sheer momentum. Democratic and Republican party officials estimate that anywhere from 50% to 75% of the electorate was undecided as of New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday.

Rick Hauffe, acting director of the state Democratic Party, tells a personal story of going to the clerk’s office to cast an absentee vote this week.

“I went in (the booth) there prepared to vote for one candidate. But then I thought it through one last time and I have to tell you I pulled the lever for someone else,” he said.

Tradition of Activism

That’s how changeable South Dakota is for this final week.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is a state with a lavish--and independent--tradition of activist politics.

The delegations Minnesota sends to the national conventions will be among the largest of any state that has voted so far. But voter turnout at the 4,000-plus caucuses, if the past is a guide, will be the tiniest of the campaign--less than 10%, according to some estimates.

That means that organizational abilities and labors are likely to pay dividends. Some campaigns have been quietly working at it since last summer, and others have moved in their very best troops from Iowa for a rushed effort.

Here is a glimpse of the political situation that greets the contenders in each state:

SOUTH DAKOTA: This is really two states, divided in half by the Missouri River.

In the East are farmers who receive federal agricultural subsidies, and who root for the Minnesota Vikings. In the West are ranchers who root for the Denver Broncos and worry about government water for irrigation. The East is considered conservative; the West really conservative.

Dukakis Gains Head Start

Democratic Gov. Michael S. Dukakis has been here since August with the largest and most carefully attended organization. That gives him a head start in seeking his first victory outside his native New England.

There have been no public opinion polls so experts have only their hunches to guide them.

If there is a surprise in the wind here, the hunch is that it might be Gore.

Gore’s large, energetic organization and a heavy dose of television commercials indicate he would like to show well here and quiet critics who say he has nothing but regional appeal.

“This is the first state without a favorite son,” said Gore’s South Dakota director, Steve Raabe. “This is a state that will listen to his moderate, or should I say, mainstream message--this is not a liberal state. . . . “

Cites Ranching Experience

Gore’s pitch has been many-fold. In person, he reminds ranchers that he raises black Angus, like some of them. He has versed himself in the arcane twists of federal irrigation policy that is lifeblood here. He has played his Vietnam veteran card in a state with high regard for patriotism. He did well enough in a Sioux Falls debate with the other Democrats that the local media dubbed him the winner.

And in television commercials, Gore is unabashed: “He’s not like all the rest. . . . He’s smarter. . . . He’s stronger. . . . The one Democrat who can win.”

Simon, the down-but-not-out senator from Illinois, must rebound soon and somewhere. The painful paradox for him in South Dakota is money.

Because of poor showings elsewhere, he is having difficulty raising funds. At the same time, his South Dakota coordinator, Chris Sautter, says: “This is a state that is going to be won in the last week with a strong media (advertising) effort.”

Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt began running television commercials here Tuesday, most of them modified versions of his Iowa ads, focusing on trade and farm policy. Gephardt also got a boost Wednesday with the endorsement of South Dakota Democratic Sen. Thomas A. Daschle, a personal friend.

Presents Populist Message

Gephardt will spend four more days in South Dakota, pumping the same populist message that worked so well in neighboring Iowa. In a visit here Wednesday, his audience of 70 consisted largely of farmers, union activists and county workers.

“This is not a Dukakis kind of place,” said Ted Muenster, 47, a businessman and Gephardt’s South Dakota campaign chairman. “We’re prairie populists, and he’s kind of a sophisticated Harvard, Eastern type guy.”

Among Republicans in South Dakota, Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas has played the role of friend and neighbor--the tactic that worked so well for him in next-door Iowa.

Many leading Republicans say that appeal is too strong for Vice President George Bush to overcome, even though Bush has gamely contested the state.

“The consensus expectation is that Sen. Dole is going to get the plurality. The only question is how big,” state GOP Chairman Joel Rosenthal said.

Concern Over Split Vote

Under rules of the primary, a candidate must receive at least 20% of the vote to qualify for any national delegates. That has some GOP officials wondering if Kemp and former religious broadcaster Pat Robertson will split the conservative, anti-Establishment vote and both be left with nothing.

Party leaders say there is little evidence that Robertson has been able to register large numbers of new Republican voters, meaning the controversial former broadcaster must try and appeal to ordinary GOP voters.

MINNESOTA--The chemistry is quite different among Republicans here.

Low turnout caucus states favor candidates like Robertson, who measure support not just in numbers but in ferocity.

In this case, however, Robertson begins the final campaign days with his hands full of Kemp.

Kemp Chances High

Party leaders for some time have been overwhelmingly pro-Kemp, and the congressman has considered this one of his best chances to break into the front ranks.

“Either a very close first or a distant first--I believe Minnesota is going to be a victory for Jack Kemp,” the congressman said enthusiastically after his third-place finish in New Hampshire.

Dole has also worked the state, earnestly taking advantage of what he acknowledges is a 1988 election calendar “that favors a Midwesterner.”

Bush’s efforts here have been token at best.

Among Democrats, Dukakis, as in South Dakota, has been here the longest and worked the hardest. He has even run television advertisements in an effort to build his image as a can-do, jobs-oriented leader.

Organizational Shortcomings

Expectations therefore run high for Dukakis. Opponents would like to think dangerously high.

But perhaps the most closely watched campaign will be Simon’s. His campaign may live or die at the hands of these few Democratic voters.

Staff writer Maura Dolan contributed to this story.