Moderate Arab Nations Put Syria on Defensive : Diplomats Note Deterioration in Damascus’ Prestige, Influence in Region

This nation, which was seen only months ago as taking a commanding role in the Arab world, has been forced onto the defensive. The Arab world’s leading radical state has been impoverished by its economy and pushed to the margin by Arab moderates.

Western diplomats and Arab officials in Damascus say they have noted a significant deterioration in Syria’s prestige over the past year, and that as a result, the regime of President Hafez Assad now has less influence on the shaping of policy in the region.

According to the diplomats, the turning point for the Syrians came in November, when Arab leaders met in Amman, Jordan, with the primary goal of achieving an Arab consensus on what was seen as the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf region.

Uneasy Condemnation

With Arab states in the gulf region taking the lead for the first time, Syria was forced to join in a harsh condemnation of Iranian aggressiveness, even though Iran and Syria have maintained close relations since 1982.

In another major defeat for Syria, the leaders at Amman agreed to permit members of the Arab League to resume relations with Egypt that were broken off in 1979 after Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel. Once again, moderate Arabs prevailed over the stiff opposition of such radicals as Syria and Libya.

“The Syrians were put in quite a defensive position at the Amman summit,” one diplomat said. “At the highest levels, the Syrians realize there is a ‘new reality’ in the Arab world.”

Officials Seek Solution

For the past six weeks, Syrian Vice President Abdel-Halim Khaddam and Foreign Minister Farouk Shareh have been touring Iran and the Arab states of the gulf region in an effort to find a solution to the war between Iraq and Iran.

According to diplomats here, Syria seems to have a number of goals. By trading on its exclusive relationship with non-Arab Iran, they say, Syria evidently hopes to split the gulf Arabs away from Iraq and bring about peace talks between the oil-rich gulf sheikdoms and the Iranians across the way.

In January, the Syrians disclosed prematurely that Iran had agreed to postpone a major offensive in return for Iraqi agreement to a moratorium on attacks against gulf shipping. But the Iraqis soon resumed their attacks.

Diplomats agree that Syria has a legitimate self-interest in ensuring that the conflict in the gulf does not spread beyond Iran and Iraq. But beyond this, they say, Syria hopes to win support for financial assistance from the gulf states while offsetting the influence of Egypt.

Mediator Role Questioned

“The gulf countries are not convinced of the need for a mediator like Syria,” one diplomat said, “but the Syrians desperately want to play that role.”

Syria’s socialist economy has been in tatters for several years. Factories have been forced to close for lack of raw materials and spare parts. Now Syria needs financial help to meet its regular monthly bills, and only the gulf states, primarily Saudi Arabia, have provided any help.

“All of her partners are keeping Syria on a tight rein these days,” one Western diplomat said.

A Syrian official, asked why Syria had embarked on such an active campaign in the Persian Gulf recently, replied in sarcastic tones, “To demonstrate that we are still earning our keep.”

No Aid Forthcoming

The Syrians were reported to have been frustrated in the aftermath of the Amman summit meeting because they had been led to expect financial aid in return for President Assad’s participation. But no such assistance was forthcoming.

Of equal concern to Assad, Egypt has been welcomed with open arms in the Persian Gulf region as the oil-rich states seek a defense umbrella against Iranian aggression, which Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has shown a willingness to provide.

In the last two months, all the conservative Arab states have resumed relations with Egypt despite strong resistance by Syria and Libya. An effort by the Arab states to reconcile Syria with Iraq--they have been feuding since 1979--has foundered despite progress in this direction at the Amman meeting.

The Iraqi press has resumed its strident attacks on Assad after a two-month lull. For Syria, the agreement to seek a rapprochement with Baghdad was cosmetic at best, according to diplomats.

Syrians Need Iran

“One of the reasons they don’t want to reconcile with Iraq is they need Iran,” a Western envoy said. “After all, the Syrians get a lot of financial help from the Iranians.”

Although some analysts have predicted that Syria and Iran will eventually fall out over the Syrian presence in Lebanon and Iran’s support for fundamentalist Muslim factions there, so far there has been little evidence of discord in their relations. After the Amman meeting, the Iranians snubbed Foreign Minister Shareh, but the disagreement was brief.

Syria has more than 25,000 troops in Lebanon, where it hopes a political agreement among the warring militia factions can end 12 years of factional fighting and reunify the country under Syria’s watchful eye.

But the pitfalls of Lebanon have proved as disastrous to Syria as they did earlier to Israel and the United States. The Christian community is in open rebellion against the Syrians, while fundamentalists loyal to Iran remain outside Syria’s area of operations in Beirut.

Free Rein in Lebanon

In return for Iranian financial aid, Syria has permitted Iran free rein in Lebanon, allowing Revolutionary Guards to enter the country through Damascus to train elements of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia organization, now one of the most powerful in the country.

Diplomats believe the Syrians are in a genuine quandary over Lebanon, evidently hoping that the collapse of the Lebanese economy will force the Christians eventually to make concessions for a settlement.

A presidential election there is scheduled for later in the year, and the Syrians are hoping to find a candidate more amenable than the incumbent Amin Gemayel. The Syrians are said to be leaning toward the commander in chief of the army, Gen. Michel Aoun, who meets the qualification of being a Maronite Christian but who is said to be flexible toward Muslims.

“Things are deteriorating for Syria,” one Western diplomat said. “They have been juggling balls in the air for so long, those balls are getting heavier and heavier.”