Familiar U.S. Strategy May Be Too Late for Panama

By playing sidelines cheerleader in the bout between Panamanian dictator Manuel A. Noriega and his democratic foes, U.S. officials said Friday, the White House is using a plan that worked spectacularly in the Philippines and somewhat less well in Haiti.

Whether it will now succeed in breaking Noriega’s hold on Panama and returning democratic rule is an open question, but also an academic one, they said.

In the view of those officials, the time for the United States to choose another, more active way to minister to Panama’s troubles passed long ago, well before the State Department decided last fall to begin publicly edging away from support of Noriega.

Passed up along the way were possible options such as active support for the democratic political opposition, which was used in El Salvador and Guatemala, or fiscal sanctions stronger than the bans on foreign aid and sugar imports that Congress already has imposed on the Noriega regime.

“Our position is that we support a stable democracy in Panama. We would certainly welcome actions of other governments to support such a stable democracy,” State Department spokeswoman Phyllis Oakley said Friday, hours after Noriega crushed an attempt by Panamanian President Eric A. Delvalle to fire him. “We still regard him (Delvalle) as the president of Panama.”

But both the State Department and the White House said the situation in Panama is still fluid and would make only tepid remarks on the course of a struggle that they said was “up to the Panamanian people.”

Nothing to Back Up Policy

In some Administration minds, that isn’t enough. “Our policy is that we want Noriega out, and that’s been our policy for six or seven months,” one knowledgeable internal critic said Friday. “The problem is that we don’t have anything more than jawboning to back it up.”

Responded a senior State Department official: “You guys want everything to happen one, two, three--we order Delvalle to do this, and Noriega goes. Well, the world doesn’t work that way.”

In fact, the State Department has led the Reagan Administration’s efforts to force Noriega from office, beginning with public suggestions last fall that he resign as commander of the nation’s military. But the diplomatic efforts initially were met with strong resistance from forces in the Pentagon and the intelligence community, where Noriega’s cooperation on defense and intelligence matters has been highly valued.

Only when Noriega’s human-rights record and his alleged involvement in drug smuggling became major public issues this year did Administration support for his ouster solidify.

The official U.S. stance on Panama is not unlike that in the last days of Ferdinand E. Marcos’ Philippines and Jean-Claude Duvalier’s Haiti. In each case, the Administration grudgingly detached itself from a notorious dictator as his power and strategic importance waned, leaving his local opponents to execute the coup de grace.

In Panama, such a gambit has not yet succeeded. On one hand, the governments of El Salvador, Venezuela and Colombia came out Friday in support of Delvalle’s efforts to regain power, and the so-called Group of Eight Latin American democracies suspended Panama’s participation in its meetings until the governmental crisis is resolved.

But President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua offered his “militant and combative solidarity” with Noriega, a Nicaraguan government communique said, and the Organization of American States, summoned into session in Washington to consider the situation, was unable even to muster a formal meeting.

Delvalle called for a general strike to protest his dismissal, but he appeared to exhibit scant popular support, and the army remained solidly behind its leader, Noriega, dashing U.S. hopes for a split.

Critics said Friday that the U.S. hand in Panama could have been strengthened by giving aid and advice to democratic political forces there, either covertly or openly. Early this decade, in El Salvador and Guatemala, American efforts to nurture the democratic political opposition in the face of right-wing dictatorships enjoyed broad support in Congress and are seen by many as crucial to the limited success of those nations’ infant democracies.

In Panama, informed sources say, “not one penny” was provided to democratic opposition groups despite a growing consensus in Congress that Panama’s fragmented political system needed some U.S. help. Instead, the U.S. appears to hope that Panama’s sinking economy and oppressed citizenry will be enough to produce change.

Administration officials predict that military backing for Noriega will weaken when Panama’s financial crisis forces the government to cut back on army paychecks, as is expected.

“The beauty of the opposition in Panama is that it’s growing by its own natural spontaneous process,” one State Department official said. “We might have moved it faster if we had put money and energy into it, but it would only have been at the margins. And it might not have been the right thing to do.”

In part, experts say, the gingerly approach reflects the changed political picture in the Western Hemisphere, where the United States no longer can impose its hand-picked leaders on countries it dislikes.

Even Panama’s ambassador to the United States, Juan Sosa, now an opponent of Noriega, said Friday that he opposes any American military action in Panama, saying his is “a nationalistic country” that wants no “third parties” running its affairs.

Beyond that, however, some Noriega critics want the United States to take stronger measures to weaken Noriega’s domestic control and to build up worldwide pressure for his removal.

The United States froze economic aid to Panama in July, and Congress restated that ban and barred U.S. purchases of Panamanian sugar in December. Noriega’s strongest congressional critics, including Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Jesse Helms (R-N.C.), now are drafting legislation to impose a trade embargo on the Noriega regime.

A Helms aide suggested the U.S. should formally seek Noriega’s extradition on the drug-smuggling charges for which he was indicted earlier this year in Miami.