Bush, Dukakis Viewed as Top Winners Today

Millions of Americans will troop to polling places and caucuses today from Key West to Puget Sound, climaxing the 20-state Super Tuesday competition that is expected to sharply define both party’s choices for President for the rest of the campaign.

If pre-balloting polling trends and the appraisals of political analysts are borne out, then Super Tuesday, the largest and most unwieldy nomination contest in political memory, could establish Vice President George Bush as the all-but-invincible front-runner in the Republican race. At the same time, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis has the opportunity to jump well out in front in the Democratic contest.

High Esteem

Bush holds the upper hand on Super Tuesday in part because the Reagan Administration is generally held in high esteem in the l4 Southern and Border state battlegrounds that have the bulk of the delegates.

Bush established his front-runner credentials after his dramatic comeback victory over his chief adversary, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole, in the Feb. 16 New Hampshire primary. He greatly strengthened his position by vanquishing Dole, former religious broadcaster Pat Robertson and New York Rep. Jack Kemp in the South Carolina primary Saturday.

Dukakis’ prospects in the South had been much murkier when the Super Tuesday competition got under way in earnest three weeks ago. Skeptics pointed to his record as an ethnic Yankee, hailing from one of the most liberal states. But by relying on a massive barrage of television commercials financed out of his $19-million treasury, Dukakis appears to have consolidated his early lead in the two biggest states--Florida and Texas.

Polls indicated that he was handily beating back the challenge of Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, who had been considered his most formidable competitor.

In fact, Gephardt was so badly hurt by the negative onslaught of television commercials launched against him not only by Dukakis but also by Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. that a range of polls, including his own, showed him to be in danger of slipping into fourth place in the contest for Super Tuesday delegates.

Gore ‘Surging’

That would put him behind the Rev. Jesse Jackson, whose aides talked optimistically of his winning today in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Virginia, and Gore, who was described by Dukakis’ poll analysts as “surging” in several places in his native South.

The mood and prospects in the various camps in both parties were reflected in their actions and utterances on the eve of the vote.

On the Republican side, Bush offered up his standard stump speech in appearances in Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas, emphasizing his loyalty to President Reagan, his desire not to raise taxes and his plans to work for treaties limiting strategic, chemical and biological weapons.

Campaign manager Lee Atwater told reporters that he expects Bush to prevail in at least a dozen of the 17 Super Tuesday states being contested on the Republican side, with the races close in the remaining five states of Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Maryland and Arkansas.

Dole Refreshed, Upbeat

Dole, refreshed by a brief rest in his Bal Harbour, Fla., beachfront condominium, seemed surprisingly upbeat Monday, joking and chatting repeatedly with reporters as he crisscrossed the South.

During one stop, aides loaded a box of souvenir Dole T-shirts on board the campaign charter to sell to reporters. Dole held one in the air and made his own sales pitch. “It’s not a closing-out sale, either,” he cracked with a wink.

Dole called on Bush to debate him “one-on-one” before the Illinois primary next week. “We’ll just talk about our records, which means I’ll get most of the time,” he said.

Robertson Weary

Robertson, who had once looked on the Southern primaries as a huge boon for his candidacy, likened himself to David about to hurl stones at Goliath. Hoarse and weary, Robertson told 150 supporters at a Shreveport airport rally: “I want you to know I’m not afraid of him.”

But acknowledging Bush’s apparent big lead, Robertson conceded that overtaking him at this late date would be a “miracle.” Robertson is expected to stay in the race at least for a while, no matter what happens in today’s voting.

Kemp was said to be planning a reassessment of his candidacy after his dismal fourth-place showing in South Carolina, where aides had said he needed to come in no worse than second.

On Monday, however, he still sounded full of fight. He discounted the polls and told a rally at Louisiana State University that “people want somebody who understands what Ronald Reagan started.”

Dukakis on the Road

On the Democratic side, Dukakis appeared in Miami and Tampa, then traveled to an evening rally in the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina before a scheduled flight back to Boston.

He also packed 21 television interviews into his final day of stumping.

“If we can emerge from Super Tuesday with the lead in terms of delegates, we’ll be on our way to the nomination,” he said.

Meanwhile, Jackson sought to reach beyond his black core of support to the Mexican-Americans of Texas’ Rio Grande Valley, who have been intensely pursued by Dukakis. Jackson pledged to fight against proposals to make English the official language of the United States.

“We are a great nation. We can speak more than one language,” he said.

Homosexual Rights

Jackson started the day of Texas campaigning in Dallas, where he visited a shelter for AIDS patients, continuing to voice the open support for homosexual rights that won him strong backing from gays and lesbians in primaries in Minnesota and Vermont.

Literally switching hats from event to event, Jackson wore his Texas Stetson as he appealed to poor farmers in Tyler, in East Texas, then donned a sombrero as he spoke to Latino voters in Brownsville, on the Mexican border.

As aides hurried reporters out of the campaign plane in Laredo on Monday afternoon, Jackson looked anxiously at his watch, hoping to get to the next stop in time to appear live on the evening news. “We gotta get to Houston,” he said to his aides. “I gotta get on TV.”

Gore Buoyed by Polls

Gore also was on the move in Texas on Monday, buoyed by poll results showing his candidacy was moving up.

“Something’s happening out there,” Gore said, wrapping up his Texas campaign with an airport appearance in Houston, his fifth visit to the city in the last three weeks.

“We have gained more in the last 24 hours than any other candidate,” he said. “If our people get to the polls, we are going to pull off a major surprise.”

As for Gephardt, he choose to campaign at the Alamo, a place that may have some symbolism given the suddenly desperate prospects for his candidacy, and he renewed his argument for an oil import duty.

“We’re standing today in front of the Alamo, a place where there was a fight for independence,” Gephardt said. “This election in 1988 is a fight again for the independence of America, the fight for us to regain control of our economic destiny.”

Staff writers Douglas Jehl, Lee May, Bob Secter, Cathleen Decker and John Balzar contributed to this story.

Networks scale back Super Tuesday coverage. Part VI, Page 1.