Bush Posts 16-State Landslide; Key Victories Bolster Dukakis : Dole Finishes Far Behind in GOP Voting

Vice President George Bush, scoring heavily among supporters of President Reagan and independent voters who cast ballots in Super Tuesday’s GOP primaries and caucuses, swept to a smashing 16-state victory and took a giant step toward locking up the 1988 Republican presidential nomination.

Bush won all 14 Southern and Border states, plus Massachusetts and Rhode Island, and defeated Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole by decisive margins in most of them.

Nearly complete returns, augmented by exit polls, indicated the 64-year old Kansas senator came close to victory in only one state--Missouri, where the two candidates ran almost dead even.

Final returns are likely to show Bush winning more than 500 of the 712 delegates at stake Tuesday.

And that, plus the 125 delegates he had won in earlier contests, would give the vice president well over half of the 1,139 needed to win the GOP nomination.

Robertson Runs Third

Former religious broadcaster Pat Robertson, who had counted on the South as his natural base of support, ran third almost everywhere in the region.

Though he was projected to be the winner in the Washington state GOP caucuses, his overall showing appeared to deal a severe blow to his candidacy.

And Rep. Jack Kemp of New York, who had already faded from contention, finished far back in all 17 states.

Far behind Bush, Dole, who went into Super Tuesday with only 65 delegates, seemed likely to emerge from the biggest face-off of the 1988 campaign with only about 100 additional delegates.

Before Tuesday’s contests, Dole’s aides conceded that the senator would be overwhelmed by Bush but said they felt he could survive in fairly good shape if he managed to win at least 200 delegates.

Kemp, who started Tuesday with 35 delegates, added fewer than half a dozen. Robertson, who previously had won eight, appeared likely to gain about a dozen more.

Incomplete returns from 16 states showed the following delegate breakdown:

Bush--572.

Dole--99.

Robertson--10.

Kemp--4.

Bush told cheering campaign workers in Houston that Tuesday’s results “exceeded my fondest expectations” and described the outcome as “a unique political happening.”

Earlier during Tuesday’s balloting, the vice president, confident that his well-financed and highly organized campaign would sweep the South, said he would be the next President if he scored a clear and convincing victory on Tuesday. And at his victory rally in Houston, an ebullient Bush reiterated: “I’m going to be the next President of the United States.”

Dole said he had sent Bush a telegram of congratulations, adding: “He’s had an extremely good day. He’ll probably sleep better tonight than I will. But you know, you have to take turns.”

Dole’s Comeback Hopes

The senator, who hopes to have his turn and make a comeback in next Tuesday’s Illinois primary, acknowledged earlier that if he took “a bath” in Super Tuesday contests, he would face a steep uphill battle for the nomination. But he implored: “Don’t write my political obituary yet.”

In his struggle to revive his campaign, Dole can be expected to emphasize his argument that Bush would be a weaker candidate in the general election and to cite polls showing that he would do better than Bush against a Democratic nominee.

“I believe it is highly important that we have a Republican in the White House following Ronald Reagan,” Dole said, “and I have got to tell you that all those surveys in the South that showed me 2 to 1 behind or 3 to 2 behind, in those same states, in polls taken just in the last few days, it showed that Bob Dole was far and above the strongest candidate in November, beating every Democrat on the ticket.”

The extent of Bush’s landslide victory on Tuesday apparently surprised Robertson, who said he had “no conception that George Bush would do as well as he did.”

“He ran a fabulous race,” Robertson said. “I was running against the ghost of Ronald Reagan. Reagan is enormously popular in the South, and the people who went for Reagan went for Bush.”

Robertson Tells Doubt

Expressing doubt that he and Dole can prevent Bush from winning the nomination, Robertson said: “The two of us together don’t look all that good going into the other states. So I don’t know how much life he (Dole) is going to have after Illinois.”

Buoyed by his close association with a President who remains enormously popular among GOP voters, the vice president rolled up huge margins in most of the 14 Southern and Border states, including the two richest prizes--Florida, where he stunned Dole with a margin of more than 2 to 1, and Texas, where the vice president out-polled the Kansas senator by more than 4 to 1.

In both states, Bush apparently collected all of the delegates.

The Times’ exit polls, reflecting the political value of the Bush-Reagan link, showed that in Florida, for example, voters who supported Reagan in 1984 chose Bush over Dole on Super Tuesday by 63% to 20%, with Robertson getting 11% and Kemp 6%. Numbers in Texas were similar.

Independents Favor Bush

Voters who identified themselves as independents, a group Dole had counted on heavily for support, favored Bush over Dole by 44% to 35% in Florida, 55% to 13% in Texas, according to the polls. And crossover Democrats in Texas, another group the senator banked on, supported Bush, 52% to 17%.

In both states, 62% of those describing themselves as conservatives favored the vice president, while Dole attracted 17% of the conservatives in Florida and Robertson 15%.

Bush also did extremely well among Latinos, winning 72% of that influential segment of the Florida vote.

And the vice president even out-polled Robertson by more than 2 to 1 among evangelicals and “born-again” Christians, who had been expected to form the core of Robertson’s support.

Among the few categories of voters favoring Dole were those in Florida who had voted for former Vice President Walter F. Mondale in the 1984 presidential election.

Appeal of Bush’s Resume

The exit polls indicated voters favored Bush because of his resume, with more than 60% citing experience as what they considered the candidate’s best qualities.

Yet The Times’ exit polls suggest Bush still has not overcome the “wimp” factor. Only 20% of Bush voters in Florida cited leadership as one of the vice president’s outstanding qualities. The number was even lower in his home state of Texas.

In contrast, nearly half of Dole’s supporters in Texas cited leadership as their reason for choosing him. Robertson’s appeal was the strength of his convictions, accounting for attracting 65% of his Florida voters, 75% of his Texas voters. Kemp’s supporters also cited his convictions as his primary appeal.

Only 18% of Bush voters in both states cited the strength of his convictions as the reason for supporting him.

In both Texas and Florida, less than 20% of Bush voters cited trust, his sense of caring, or his being a doer as their reason for supporting him. And less than 10% cited vision or toughness. Even being a winner was the appeal of only 11% in Texas, 8% in Florida.

After Bush cast his vote in Houston, he and his campaign’s brain trust gathered in hotel suites there to plan strategy for next Tuesday’s Illinois primary, where he expects to deliver another staggering blow to the Dole campaign. Gov. James R. Thompson and other Republican Establishment figures are backing Bush in the race.

Dole Ads Attack Bush

Facing what comes close to a do-or-die situation in Illinois, Dole had already begun running television commercials there, stressing his own record of leadership and attacking Bush for his role in the Iran-Contra scandal, the sale of arms to Iran in exchange for help in seeking the release of American hostages held in Lebanon.

At a press conference in Peoria, Dole said he had sent a telegram to Bush challenging him to a series of debates in Illinois and said the debates would help “smoke George Bush out” and save the Republican Party from nominating a man Dole said could be pilloried by the Democrats in November’s general election.

“Sooner or later,” declared Dole, who has become increasingly harsh in his attacks on the vice president, “we’re going to have to fight some of the battles on the Republican side because the Democrats are not going to let George Bush hide. They’re going to want answers to a lot of questions.”

Dole insisted he is in the race to stay and said he expects to “turn things around” once the contest moves into the Midwest and West, where polls show he may be relatively stronger.

Debate Called Unlikely

But Dole is unlikely to get a debate with Bush in his struggle to revive his badly sagging candidacy. The vice president has run an exceptionally cautious campaign since winning the New Hampshire primary a month ago. Victory there put his campaign back on track after it had been derailed by a third-place finish in the Iowa caucus behind Dole and Robertson.

Bush, who has made himself generally inaccessible to national reporters covering his campaign, rejected Dole’s challenge to debate in Illinois through statements by aides.

Craig Fuller, Bush’s chief of staff, said: “We’ve been to seven debates and Bob Dole participated in six,” most of which were seen on television in Illinois. “We see no reason to participate in another debate.”

Lee Atwater, Bush’s campaign manager, called Dole’s debate challenge “an 11th-hour ploy” and said Bush would refuse to debate and would stick with his own campaign schedule in Illinois.

Robertson, who fared even worse than Dole in Tuesday’s contests, also insisted he will continue campaigning. Comparing his fight with Bush to that of David and Goliath, the former minister said: “He’s got me 4 to 1. I just don’t know whether I’ve got enough stones in the sling to bring him down, but I’m going to do the best I can.”

Kemp Plans Reassessment

Even before Super Tuesday, rumors were rampant that Kemp planned to withdraw from the race if he failed to make a significant showing in any of the states. Despite his dismal showing Tuesday, there was no early word from his campaign on his intentions.

However, Kemp aides said he probably would reassess his campaign later in the week. The New York congressman and former professional football player had billed himself as the conservative alternative to Bush and Dole and declared he was best suited to carry forth Reagan’s policies.

Yet his campaign never got off the ground and, emblematic of his continuing problems, he finished fourth behind Robertson in last Saturday’s South Carolina GOP primary leading up to Super Tuesday.

The extent of the thrashing Dole would experience on Super Tuesday became clear in early tabulation of results in states on the East Coast when returns showed Bush winning in North Carolina, home of Dole’s wife, former Transportation Secretary Elizabeth Hanford Dole.

The 64-year-old Kansas senator and his popular wife had campaigned extensively in North Carolina and had counted heavily on winning that state.