U.S. to Step Up Effort to Drive Out Noriega : Nation Viewed as Unprepared for Move to Democratic Rule

As rival forces in Panama’s political crisis head for a possible showdown this week, leadership on all sides of the struggle is fractured, foreign observers who live here say, making the shape of things to come hard to foresee in the event of the fall of military strongman Manuel A. Noriega.

This week’s events will center on attempts by the government to revive Panama’s paralyzed economy in the face of a severe cash shortage and a continuation of strikes by Noriega’s opponents.

But many observers are looking beyond the immediate battle and predict that the lack of political cohesion in Panama may complicate an eventual transformation from Noriega’s rule to democratic civilian government.

‘Focused on Noriega’

“Everyone in Panama is focused on Noriega and not very well prepared for what happens if he goes,” a European diplomat said.

The uncertainty presents a challenge for the United States, which has special interest in returning stability to Panama, home of the Panama Canal and several U.S. military bases.

Last week, the mythic unity of the Panama Defense Forces under Noriega’s command disintegrated as an officer-led coup attempt against the general failed. The aftershocks of the revolt reverberated through the armed forces.

At least 12 of the Defense Forces’ 54 majors have been arrested, forced to step down or driven into hiding. One colonel is under arrest and another was retired. Over the weekend, Noriega dismissed the head of Panama’s air force, Lt. Col. Lorenzo Purcell, for involvement in the coup attempt, foreign military observers reported.

One source considered to have close knowledge of the Panamanian armed forces said that as many as 100 officers may have at least sympathized with the effort to topple Noriega, who has been indicted by the United States on drug trafficking and related charges.

Economic Chaos

In the immediate future, the breakup of military unity throws into question Noriega’s ability to confront a series of strikes and commercial shutdowns that have crippled the entire Panamanian economy.

The government has given itself power to suspend constitutional rights, opening the way for what could be a radical alteration of Panama’s political and economic structure. Expropriations and union busting are considered possible steps. Opposition leaders fear arbitrary arrests.

“Noriega may simply decide to tear the country apart to stay in power,” one Western diplomat declared. “No one knows, however, whether he still has the means to do so.”

In the longer term, the deep split in the armed forces muddles the chances of a smooth transition to civilian rule should Noriega be toppled, foreign observers say. A knowledgeable source said there was some question of just who will be left to negotiate a withdrawal of the armed forces from politics if Noriega goes.

The civilian opposition, meanwhile, finds itself in a paradoxical situation: while active resistance to Noriega’s rule has spread among almost all social classes in Panama, that resistance remains uncoordinated.

Anti-Noriega businessmen in the self-styled Civic Crusade sat on the sidelines last week while three unions--teachers, electric power workers and port workers--took to the streets to protest delays in receiving their salaries.

Crusade members, who have been openly opposed to Noriega for almost nine months, expressed some disdain for the union workers’ motives. Only the teachers have joined the Civic Crusade.

“The unions are only in it for the money,” Crusade member Pierre G. Leignadier said. “We, on the other hand, have been fighting for months.”

Businessmen Preoccupied

Crusade leaders spent much of the last two weeks preoccupied with their own business activities. Many attended a trade fair in Panama City, passing among perfume and Jacuzzi exhibits, or sipping whiskey in the Marriott Hotel while workers in the streets faced soldiers, tear gas and birdshot.

“Life must go on,” Crusade leader and businessman Aurelio Barria explained.

The narrow views of Crusade leaders have kept their movement from gaining the backing of many of Panama’s poor, even though the impoverished have also expressed opposition to Noriega.

Opposition political parties have been almost totally inactive during the recent crisis. Panama has no strong tradition of civilian politics, and some parties are merely the domain of a few dominant personalities who have no popular backing.

Just who among them might wield real power in a transitional government following a Noriega departure is pretty much a question mark.

Eric A. Delvalle, whose ouster from his post as the nation’s figurehead civilian president by Noriega triggered the latest turmoil, is likely to head, at least nominally, a new government. The Reagan Administration recognizes him as Panama’s legitimate president, and American officials have indicated that Delvalle can count on U.S. support once Noriega is out of power.

Whether Delvalle can exercise influence over Panamanians is another matter. He is mistrusted by all the members of the Civic Crusade and by political party leaders because of his long subservience to Noriega before the latter had him sacked by the National Assembly. Delvalle has no popular following.

Perhaps the only politician capable of drawing a crowd is Arnulfo Arias, the aging patriarch of Panamanian politics. Arias, a physician, has been elected president of Panama three times and was deposed by the military each of those times. As a political figure he has promoted such diverse causes as social security and the expulsion of Panama’s black West Indian immigrants.

Arias is currently in Miami, alternatively reported to be ill or merely waiting to make a triumphal return to Panama.

Another politician seen as having a future in a post-Noriega Panama is Ricardo Arias Calderon, who is no relation to Arnulfo Arias.

Barred From Panama

Arias Calderon, who heads the Christian Democratic Party, was barred from entering Panama last month and has been drifting between Miami and San Jose, Costa Rica. The Christian Democratic Party is the only political party here with a grass-roots organization.

Although strikes by public employee unions have severely undermined Noriega’s rule, there is some question about how large a role labor bosses will play in a Panama without Noriega.

Privately, union leaders and members alike say they would like to bring the general down, but they seem nervous about risking the future of their unions in a confrontation with the government. The unions went on strike last week to protest late wage payments by the government.

“We are out (on strike) only for economic reasons,” said Luis Asprilla, the head of a dockworkers’ union at the port of Balboa.