Arizona’s Democrats Hold Caucuses Today

Only 36 Democratic delegates are at stake, but every little bit counts in a race as close as the party’s 1988 contest. So the phone banks were going full blast in Arizona in anticipation of today’s caucuses.

It is essentially a battle between Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis and the Rev. Jesse Jackson, according to state party officials.

Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr.’s supporters are active in rural parts of the state, but working against him is that most of the caucus polling places are in the urban areas in and around Phoenix and Tucson.

Turnout is expected to be low--about 30,000 people out of more than 700,000 registered Democrats.

“Caucuses only generate interest in states where there is a history of political activism, and that is not the case here,” former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt said Friday in an interview.

Babbitt was a Democratic candidate for President until he quit in February after poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Trying to Be Diplomatic

Now he is trying to be diplomatic with the remaining Democratic field. When Jackson made a one-day tour of Arizona last week, Babbitt took him around.

The other day, Babbitt’s wife, Hattie, escorted Dukakis’ wife, Kitty, to campaign stops in Tucson, Phoenix and Flagstaff.

“My guess is that Dukakis will probably win here, but it’s only a guess,” said Babbitt. “I think Jackson will do extremely well.”

Political consultant Rick DeGraw, a Jackson supporter, predicted that his candidate would double the 16% of the vote he got in 1984, when Jackson finished behind Gary Hart and Walter F. Mondale. But DeGraw also thought Dukakis had the edge.

Glenn Davis, executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, said Jackson had endeared himself to party activists by making a personal appearance in the state, where he drew large crowds of whites, blacks and Latinos.

“I think Dukakis should have come here himself,” Davis said, “although I know he is concentrating on Tuesday’s New York primary. Kitty Dukakis just didn’t generate the attention that Jackson got.”

Melodee Jackson, assistant director of the state party, said: “Jesse Jackson’s people have been working hard here since last November, knocking on doors and phoning activists. Dukakis didn’t really begin to make an effort until 10 days ago.

“But then Dukakis had the money to set up a huge phone bank and that could help him get out his vote. I’ve had party people tell me they’ve been called three times by the Dukakis campaign.”

Today’s Democratic caucuses are just the first step in Arizona’s process. Voters will list a presidential preference and also choose 500 delegates out of 1,523 on the ballot in legislative districts.

The 500 will meet May 28 and begin the allocation of actual convention delegates based on the preferences for Dukakis, Gore and Jackson expressed today. The state party’s central committee will also get involved in choosing the 36 people who will make the trip to Atlanta in July. They will be joined by five “super delegates”--party and elected officials, including Babbitt.

State party leaders said that they expected Dukakis and Jackson to divide most of the delegates between them. A candidate must get at least 15% of the vote statewide to qualify for delegates, and there is some doubt whether Gore will meet that threshold.

The Dukakis and Jackson campaigns have both been courting the state’s Latinos and Indians, who make up more than one-quarter of the Democratic electorate.

Babbitt said that Jackson’s expected strong finish in a state whose population is only 3% black was more evidence of the candidate’s success in broadening his appeal in this campaign.

“It will be a real tribute to Jesse Jackson’s growth as a presidential candidate,” said Babbitt, who has stopped short of endorsing Jackson while praising him on numerous occasions recently.

On the Republican side, Arizona’s several-tiered caucus process will be completed next month and most of the 33 national convention delegates will be pledged to Vice President George Bush.

THE ARIZONA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES

The State

Population: 3.32 million (1986 est.)

Registered Voters: 1.6 million--79% Anglo, 13% Latino, 4% Indian, 3% Black, 1% Asian.

Economy: Diversified manufacturing, mining and metals processing, tourism, ranching. Unemployment rate (Feb.): 5.7%.

Major cities: Phoenix (capital), 850,000; Tucson, 370,000.

THE CAUCUSES

Thirty-six national convention delegates are at stake today in what is essentially a party-run primary. Only registered Democrats may take part in today’s caucuses, held at the county or legislative-district level. They will cast a presidential preference vote and elect delegates to regional caucuses. National delegates will not be chosen till late spring, but they will be allocated to presidential candidates in proportion to today’s preference vote.