General’s Foes Worried About His Remaining

Opposition leaders in Panama expressed worries Thursday about White House willingness to let Gen. Manuel A. Noriega remain in Panama, even for several weeks, if and when he finally relinquishes power. One said that his continued presence here could block the transition to “true democracy.”

The softening of U.S. conditions for Noriega’s departure followed the failure of economic pressures imposed by Washington on Panama to drive Noriega out of power, as well as the weakening of strikes and protests directed against him by domestic opponents.

Leaders of opposition political parties and anti-Noriega civic movements interviewed by The Times said that the military strongman’s continued presence inside this country would cripple any future progress to democratic rule. They fear he could continue to meddle in political affairs even after shedding his uniform.

“Noriega’s presence here could be worse than having Marcos in the Philippines,” said Ricardo Arias Calderon, leader of the Christian Democratic Party. He was referring to former President Ferdinand E. Marcos, who flew from Manila into exile in Hawaii after he was overthrown in 1986 after 20 years of dictatorial rule.

Arias Calderon added that even allowing Noriega to stay for several weeks, once he resigns his command of the 15,000-member Panama Defense Forces, might backfire if Washington drops its economic sanctions first.

‘A Catastrophe’

“It could be a catastrophe,” he declared.

Arias Calderon and other opposition leaders said that if Noriega stays, he should face charges in Panama on a variety of alleged crimes, including responsibility for the 1985 decapitation-murder of newspaper columnist Hugo Spadafora. Otherwise, the opposition leaders asserted, there could be no way to guarantee civilian control over the military.

They fear that prosecution of Noriega would be blocked by the Defense Forces.

“For Noriega to remain in Panama might mean that his cronies would keep control of the military and protect him. And that would mean they would block changes that would lead to true democracy,” said Luis Casco Arias, an official of the anti-military Molirena party.

Aurelio Barria, a leader of the National Civic Crusade, a business and trade alliance that has spearheaded opposition to Noriega since last June, declared: “If it just means that Noriega gets out of the armed forces and nothing else changes, it will be Norieguismo without Noriega.”

Barria made his comments in a telephone interview from Washington.

The change of policy in Washington came to light as a high-level State Department official left Panama after negotiating with Noriega. U.S. Embassy officials said they do not know specifically what Michael G. Kozak, deputy assistant secretary of state for Latin America, and Noriega were discussing.

Kozak’s Panama visit was his second in 10 days. He has been involved in several months of talks aimed at getting Noriega to step down.

And while the U.S. Embassy would make no comment, there were indications that, in addition to backing away from demands that Noriega leave the region, Washington was modifying other previously stated conditions for restoration of normal economic ties with Panama.

Sources here say that the United States is no longer insisting on major changes in Panama’s military that would remove either close associates of Noriega or officers who believe that the military has the right to remain active in politics.

In January, the Reagan Administration backed a plan that would have included a major restructuring of the Defense Forces as a means for ensuring its return to the barracks.

‘Not Going to Happen’

“It would be nice to get everything all at once, but it’s not going to happen,” according to one source close to the embassy.

Instead, Washington is concentrating on trying to ensure that presidential elections scheduled for next year be free of military interference. Included in that effort are envisioned changes in the government’s electoral tribunal.

Reports from Washington indicate that Noriega is asking that the United States drop drug-trafficking charges against him. However, U.S. officials here say that such a move would create a political nightmare for the Reagan Administration as well as for Vice President George Bush, who is expected to be the Republican nominee for president.

“Dropping the indictments would be a mousetrap for the Administration,” one U.S. source said. “Drugs (are) a big issue in the United States.”

Meanwhile, street protests against Noriega here fizzled Thursday. Backers of the protests hoped they would spread throughout Panama City, but they never moved beyond a few neighborhoods around the city’s financial district, a traditional gathering place for demonstrations.

Police fired tear gas on Via Espana, the district’s main thoroughfare, to rout the few demonstrators who appeared there. Protesters in the nearby El Cangrejo residential neighborhood burned trash in the streets to block pursuing police.

Panamanian police also arrested at least 10 anti-Noriega activists before the protests got under way. Over the past few days, the police had raided and closed offices of several organizations linked to the National Civic Crusade.