Deal Giving Noriega a Panama Foothold Seen as Best U.S. Can Hope For

Despite the risks apparent in offering Gen. Manuel A. Noriega a foothold in or near Panama and a flexible departure schedule if he agrees to leave power, U.S. officials contend that such a deal is the best that the Reagan Administration can currently hope for.

Although Washington holds in reserve some new tools that it could use to try to force Noriega to retire, there is little confidence that they would have an immediate effect, U.S. and foreign diplomats say. The ultimate tool--U.S. military force--is still being ruled out as a solution to Panama’s political crisis.

“When we renounced the use of force, we knew we had to accept less than what we wanted,” one American official here said. Another added: “Half a loaf is better than none.”

Failed Coup Cited

Diplomatic observers said it became evident that Washington would have to give up its goal of unconditionally forcing Noriega out of power and out of the region soon after March 16, when rebellious Panamanian military officers failed in a move to topple Noriega through a barracks coup, U.S. officials here say.

The officers tried to take control of Noriega’s headquarters without calling on their own troops or even carrying enough weaponry to overcome Noriega’s loyal guard.

“We wanted a coup, and that is what we got,” said one U.S. official. “Unfortunately, it was carried out by Dean Martin and Jerry Lewis.”

During the last two weeks, the United States has been trying to deal more gingerly with Noriega. Outlines of a new compromise deal to ease Noriega out were reported Thursday in Washington.

The proposals included a willingness by the Reagan Administration to let Noriega stay in Panama, at least for a time, and go into exile without fear of prosecution by the United States on drug trafficking charges.

Noriega would also be granted a face-saving interval in which to step down from his post as commander of the Panama Defense Forces, from which he effectively rules this tiny country.

Symbolic Measures Canceled

As a sign of good faith, Washington has canceled some somewhat symbolic measures aimed at keeping up the pressure on Noriega, informed sources here said. One such measure was a military exercise by U.S. troops to be held at Ft. Amador at the Pacific entrance to the Panama Canal, in sight of Noriega’s office there.

U.S. officials in Washington cautioned Thursday that no agreement has been reached with Noriega for his departure. And on Friday, Panamanian Foreign Minister Jorge Ritter told a press conference that “there was no accord.” He declined to discuss whether conditions for Noriega’s leave-taking were on the negotiating table.

In any case, Ritter added, the conflict between Panama and the United States should not be considered to center on Noriega but on U.S. economic sanctions against this country.

The reported U.S. offers reflect a softening of Administration demands voiced as recently as three weeks ago. The new conditions have been discussed by Noriega and State Department envoy Michael G. Kozak during talks that took place here during the last two weeks.

Weak Underpinnings

Although the botched coup in March spelled the beginning of the end for the Administration’s hard-line stance, American officials and other diplomats now contend that the policy was based on some weak underpinnings from the beginning.

The decision to back ousted civilian President Eric A. Delvalle by imposing a series of punishing economic sanctions on Panama was made hurriedly, they say. Policy makers did not foresee that Noriega might survive a collapsing economy.

Noriega engineered Delvalle’s ouster Feb. 26, after Delvalle tried to dismiss the general as commander of the 15,000-member Panama Defense Forces.

“Things have taken longer than anyone in Washington expected,” a Western diplomat said.

U.S. officials point out that once Noriega leaves power, Washington will be faced with requests to help rebuild the Panamanian economy. The projected costs of economic recovery here are mounting, the officials say.

Could Cost $1 Billion

Estimates of a cash inflow needed to revive the economy are variously estimated at $500 million to $1 billion, and a Western diplomat commented that “the price is rising every day.”

The indictments of Noriega on drug charges by two federal grand juries in Florida also narrowed the possibilities for compromise, diplomats here assert. Some U.S. officials are expressing regret that the indictments in February were made public.

One U.S. source suggested that leaks by the Justice Department of the contents of the indictments made it impossible for them to be kept sealed. A spokesman for the Justice Department told The Times on Friday that no one had ever asked that the indictments be kept sealed for any significant length of time.

In any event, the indictments could still prove to be an important obstacle to resolving Panama’s difficult political stalemate. Noriega is reportedly seeking to have the charges dropped altogether rather than accept U.S. promises that Washington would not try to extradite him, once he left power.

Foes of Noriega have criticized the toned-down U.S. conditions for Noriega’s departure as opening the way for him to interfere in Panamanian politics in the future, but U.S. officials and some Panamanians think the opposition is protesting too much.

“Once Noriega is out of power, it will be difficult for him to regain influence,” one U.S. official said.

‘Cop Without a Uniform’

A Panamanian politician with ties to the country’s Defense Forces said: “We have a proverb: A cop without a uniform can’t give out tickets.”

Panamanian foes of Noriega also think that the United States has abandoned its goal of forcing Noriega’s close military associates to leave with him. These officers, anti-Noriega leaders argue, will be the ones most likely to oppose a strong civilian administration in the future, especially one that might try to curb military interference in government and other abuses.

Between six and a dozen military officers have been singled out as accomplices in Noriega’s alleged crimes.

U.S. officials say that the ouster of Noriega’s cronies is desirable but that such an action should be discussed by Panamanian opposition leaders and Panama’s government once Noriega’s departure is assured.

“There are some things Panamanians should just take care of themselves,” a U.S. official said.

As to general opposition complaints that Washington is backing too far away from previous tougher conditions, U.S. diplomats contend that the opposition might also be wise to get what they can now.

Street Protests Lagging

Foes of Noriega have been unable to mount any significant street protests since last month, the U.S. officials point out. Large-scale demonstrations scheduled for Thursday disintegrated in the face of a police crackdown on two dozen opposition members and a small show of force by Panamanian troops.

“I don’t think it makes sense for the United States to wait around while the opposition gets itself in gear,” one Western diplomat said.

Other issues to be left to post-Noriega bargaining, diplomats said, are the structure and terms for next year’s presidential elections and the role of the military in normally civilian pursuits. The Defense Forces currently run a television station, the customs services, port facilities and operate numerous businesses, some of them illicit, that permit them to remain independent of civilian influence and budgetary constraints.