POLITICS 88 : Candidates Stick to ‘Script’ for Ohio, Indiana Primaries Today

As Michael S. Dukakis and the Rev. Jesse Jackson have campaigned across Ohio and Indiana, battling for the 238 delegates at stake in today’s primaries, they have moved almost as if they were actors following a script that was described a week ago by one of the dropouts from the Democratic race.

The ex-candidate, speaking on condition that he not be identified, offered this forecast just after Dukakis had soundly defeated Jackson in last Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary:

“I think you’re likely to see Jesse become increasingly frustrated because of three factors:

“One, the margin will continue to increase and Dukakis will become increasingly inevitable.

“Second, the press will begin to get on him in terms of ‘You’ve got nowhere to go, and there’s no plausible way that you can describe a path to victory.’

“Third, he’ll be frustrated by Dukakis’ continuing unwillingness to really say anything. The result may be an irresistible temptation to become sharper in his dialogue and critique.”

Right on the Money

So far, the prediction is right on the money. Dukakis, who now has 1,293 delegate votes out of 2,081 needed for the nomination, according to the Associated Press’ tally, is expected to widen his lead with comfortable victories in the two states, according to polls and party officials. Jackson, who has 857 delegates so far, is expected to sweep the District of Columbia primary, with 16 delegates, today. In 1984, he won the primary there with 67% of the vote.

(On the Republican side, Vice President George Bush already has enough delegates to assure his nomination at the GOP convention in August, and has no active Republican opposition in today’s primaries.)

Jackson, despite outspending Dukakis on media advertising 4 to 1 and campaigning more vigorously, trails in Ohio by 62% to 32%, according to a poll by the Akron Beacon-Journal taken over the weekend. An Indianapolis Star poll in Indiana showed Jackson trailing there by 3 to 1.

Peppered by Press

Since his loss to Dukakis in Pennsylvania a week ago by 67% to 27%, Jackson has been peppered by the press with questions about his candidacy. And right on cue, he has turned up the debate, accusing Dukakis of being to the right of President Reagan on one foreign policy issue and accusing him in speeches and television ads of wanting merely “to manage” current economic policies instead of changing them.

“We do not need two Republican parties,” he told union members in Cleveland: “Bush wants to maintain Reaganomics, Dukakis wants to manage Reaganomics. I want to reverse Reaganomics.”

Education Plan Criticized

He also criticized Dukakis’ plans for improving education as inadequate, chided the Massachusetts governor for weakly copying his emotional crusade against drugs and questioned his abilities to lead the nation.

Jackson’s problem here, as it was in the New York and Pennsylvania primaries, is that the vote today is once again expected to split largely along color lines. And in Ohio and Indiana, where blacks make up less than 10% of the population, that is bad news for Jackson.

“In the last two months, Dukakis’ lead over Jackson in Ohio polls has widened almost in direct proportion to the support of other white candidates who have dropped out of the race,” said Jack DeSario, pollster and political science professor at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland.

“There’s a very high percentage who find it hard to vote for a black candidate,” he said. “But a significant reason is also that a lot of those voters also think Jackson would be very liberal and a big spender.”

Jackson has struggled to counter such sentiments as he speaks before cheering throngs of white voters.

“While you’re all inspired, if you like what I’m saying, vote for me on Tuesday,” he told one crowd in Akron. “Vote conscience. Vote courage. Vote change.”

Dukakis, meanwhile, has continued to offer voters the promise that he could do for them what he has done for Massachusetts, where unemployment is less than 4%, the minimum wage is above the national average and where he has recently signed into law a bill to guarantee health insurance for all citizens.

While campaigning across the two states, Dukakis has repeatedly warned his supporters not to be overconfident of victory, but he also has shown abundant signs that he is looking past today to the general election.

At the urging of advisers and party leaders, for example, he has stepped up campaigning among minorities. Where a week earlier he had passed through predominantly black Gary, Ind., en route to a fund-raiser in the largely white suburbs without any appearances before a black audience, last weekend he made sure to speak before the United Black Fund in Cleveland.

Courting Black Vote

“As you see us rev up for the presidency, you’ll see it more and more,” said Dukakis adviser Paul Parks. “When (the primaries) are over, you’ve got to be on record of going after the black vote.”

Also in preparation for November, the Dukakis campaign has been reaching out to officials from campaigns of candidates who have quit the race.

In Indiana, for example, the Dukakis campaign has recruited the state campaign chairmen for Illinois Sen. Paul Simon and Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt and the No. 2 staffer for former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt.

But more than that, the campaign aides have been trying to generate more excitement about their candidate, whose support so far has been lukewarm, campaign officials admit. That concerns Dukakis’ staff in Ohio, a state they deem key in the general election.

“A lot of people may believe he can do a serviceable job,” Ohio spokesman George Stephanopoulos said. “But can he convince them that he’s really going to make a difference?”

As Dukakis continues to pile up delegates and Jackson’s chance of winning the nomination grows more remote each week, questions are resurfacing about what Jackson hopes to accomplish by staying in the race.

If Dukakis keeps winning primaries handily, he apparently will not need Jackson’s support to become the nominee, but, Jackson’s ability to influence the degree of enthusiasm black voters will show for the Democratic ticket in the fall gives him something to bargain with.

“The Democrats can’t always win with the black vote, but they certainly can’t win without it,” said Ohio state legislator Bill Crawford.

Patronage Appointments

Some of Jackson’s supporters paint a scenario of his bargaining to have a large percentage of the federal judgeships, commission positions and patronage appointments set aside for women and minorities.

But some prominent Democrats warn that such bargaining could be dangerous.

“If the impression is that deals are made,” ex-candidate Simon said in an interview, “it’s going to hurt everybody involved. That would be true if the deal were with Paul Simon, the AFL-CIO or anybody else. I don’t think that’s going to happen. I would be surprised if Jesse Jackson wanted to try to make a deal and I don’t think Mike Dukakis would be inclined to make some sort of a deal.”

Gary Hart, who seriously challenged Walter F. Mondale for the Democratic nomination four years ago, said that amid the hoopla, people have confused exactly where Jackson is in the process.

“Jesse’s position is not totally unlike my position at this time four years ago.” Hart said. “He is one of the two finalists and he will go to the convention with a large number of delegates. But all of those things could have been said about me.

“No one was asking me four years ago what I wanted, what was my agenda. There was no pressure four years ago for me to be the vice presidential nominee. I think he wants to be and deserves to be treated the same as any white candidate.”

Hart said he expects Jackson to be with the party in July.

“Jesse has said he wants to help put a Democrat in the White House,” Hart said. “I’ve known him for 20 years, and I take him at his word. I don’t think he is going to sit on the sidelines.”

TUESDAY’S PRIMARIESOHIO THE STATE Population: 10,752,000 (1986 est.)

Registered voters: 5,940,000. Approximately 89% white, 9% black, 1% Latino, 1% other; 32% are Democrats, 19% are Republicans, 49% unaffiliated.

Economy: Diversified manufacturing with emphasis on basic “smokestack” industries--steel, machinery, autos, transportation equipment; agriculture.

Major cities: Columbus (capital), 570,000; Cleveland, 560,000; Cincinnati, 385,000.

THE PRIMARY With 159 Democratic and 88 Republican convention votes at stake, the Ohio primary offers the sixth-largest delegate harvest of any state, and draws the most attention of the three being held today. In the Republican primary, 63 delegates will be chosen by a winner-take-all process in the state’s 21 congressional districts--the winning candidate gets all three of that district’s delegates. The statewide winner then gets all 25 of the at-large delegates. Democrats will use the “bonus” proportional-allocation system they use in many states. Every candidate who gets 15% or more of the vote in a congressional district is entitled to at least one delegate, and the winner in the district gets one bonus delegate. Fifty-five at-large delegates will be allocated in proportion to the statewide vote. Polls close at 7:30 p.m. EDT.

INDIANA

THE STATE Population: 5,504,000 (1986 est).

Registered voters: 2,880,000 (no party registration); 91% white, 7% black, 1% Latino, 1% other.

Economy: Diversified manufacturing, notably steel and other metals, transportation equipment, electronics; agriculture.

Major cities: Indianapolis (capital), 710,000; Ft. Wayne, 171,000; Gary, 150,000.

THE PRIMARY At stake are 79 Democratic and 30 GOP delegates. Twenty-one additional Republican delegates will be chosen later at a state convention, and need not reflect the primary vote. Democratic delegates will be awarded in proportion to the primary vote; 52 will be chosen by congressional district, and 27 will represent the state at large. The Republican primary will be winner-take-all at the congressional district level. Polls close at 6 p.m. EDT.

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

THE DISTRICT Population: 626,000 (1986 est.)

Registered voters: 281,000. Approximately 66% black, 29% white, 3% Latino, 2% Asian and other; 80% are Democrats, 8% are Republicans, 12% independent or minor parties.

Economy: Government, tourism.

THE PRIMARY Sixteen Democratic and 14 Republican delegates are at stake. Both parties will allocate delegates in proportion to the primary vote. Polls close at 8 p.m. EDT.