2 Republican Women Running Hard for Inside Track to Succeed Stirling

From one perspective, this year’s 77th Assembly District race comes down to this: The seat is now held by a Republican. Barring a political miracle, it will be held by a Republican when the election is over in November. The only question is, which one?

After eight years of being the all-but-uncontested political province of Assemblyman Larry Stirling (R-San Diego), the 77th District this spring has become the scene of perhaps San Diego’s most closely watched primary as two Republican women battle to succeed Stirling as he seeks to move up to the state Senate.

Although the victor in the June 7 Republican primary between San Diego City Councilwoman Gloria McColl and state legislative aide Carol Bentley will face a Democratic opponent this fall, the November general election is widely viewed as a mere formality. With the Republicans holding a 50%-38% edge in voter registration in the sprawling district, “this race will be over in June,” Gary Huckaby, McColl’s Sacramento-based political consultant, said matter-of-factly.

Lawyer Sam Hornreich and mathematician Reena Deutsch, who are unopposed in the Democratic and Libertarian primaries, respectively, might dispute that analysis, but few others do.

Focus on the Primary

Bentley’s local consultants, Jim Johnston and David Lewis, predict that as much as $500,000 may be spent by the two Republicans, about two-thirds of it by McColl, by next month’s primary--a reflection of the fact that victory in June is tantamount to election.

“The primary is the race in the 77th,” Lewis said of the district, which stretches from Tierrasanta and parts of northern San Diego to East County, including La Mesa, El Cajon and Santee.

When Stirling announced in February that he intended to seek the seat of retiring state Sen. Jim Ellis (R-San Diego), McColl’s superior name recognition and fund-raising ability--assets attributable to her five-year council incumbency--caused her to be viewed as a heavy favorite for the $37,105-a-year job. (Assembly members also receive $87 a day in living expenses for each day the Legislature is in session.)

With one month remaining in the race, and with the respective campaigns only now beginning their TV and radio ads and mail blitzes, McColl still is generally acknowledged to be the front-runner, even by Bentley’s partisans. But several recent developments--notably, Bentley’s 2-to-1 victory over McColl in a straw poll at a GOP countywide convention last month--have shifted momentum in her direction, at least temporarily, and prompted increasing talk in political circles of an upset in the making.

Air Force vs. Infantry?

One top local Republican describes the McColl-Bentley race as “a shoot-out between the Air Force and the Infantry” that pits McColl’s name, money, legislative record and Establishment support against Bentley’s zealous backing among partisan Republican activists. In a general election, those factors would balance out in McColl’s favor. But, in a party primary, which attracts the activists that are the core of Bentley’s strength, the balance shifts.

“Ordinarily, you’d take the big weapons over the foot soldiers,” the GOP leader added. “But you can’t forget that this is a Republican primary. And, in a primary, the test isn’t whether you’re going to be a good legislator. It’s whether you can be a good Republican.”

Making that political maxim the centerpiece of her campaign strategy, Bentley has adopted the phrase “Bentley: A real Republican!” as her major theme. Her ads, mailers and yard signs describe her as such--or, sometimes, as “a Republican’s Republican”--in an obvious attempt to draw a distinction between Bentley’s 16 years of experience in partisan politics and McColl’s nominally nonpartisan local-government service.

In the absence of major philosophical differences between McColl and Bentley, the candidates’ political backgrounds have emerged as one of the race’s overriding issues. Bentley has attempted to frame that issue around what she perceives as differences in the two candidates’ badges of Republicanism. McColl, meanwhile, counters by stressing her experience in elective office contrasted with Bentley’s legislative staff work.

“The state Assembly is nothing like a local, nonpartisan office,” said Bentley, who has worked for Ellis since 1976 and now is his top aide. “It’s a place where party loyalty and active Republican involvement count.”

Accordingly, the 43-year-old Bentley, who worked for former state Sen. Jack Schrade (R-San Diego) for four years before joining Ellis’ staff, argues that, despite her lack of experience in elective office, her political resume is better matched to the Assembly job than that of McColl.

“There isn’t a state issue I haven’t worked on or bring some historical perspective to, be it water or transportation or education or whatever,” said Bentley, noting that Ellis’ senatorial district overlaps the 77th District. In contrast, only seven of the precincts in McColl’s council district are in the 77th District.

Combined with her campaign work on behalf of dozens of Republican candidates over the years, Bentley’s legislative background has provided her with valuable contacts that she has parlayed into campaign contributions and volunteers. Although consultant Johnston said he expects Bentley to be outspent by more than 2 to 1, he added that her own expenditures will be “well into six figures,” an impressive financial performance for a first-time candidate.

As one former San Diego City Council member put it: “Gloria may be known better citywide. But, in the district, Carol is the one who has worked with these people, knows where they live, knows their kids’ names and what’s important to them.”

Recent McColl Polls

McColl’s supporters, however, are comforted by their own recent polls showing the 57-year-old councilwoman running ahead of Bentley by lopsided margins. Although they acknowledge Bentley’s popularity among GOP activists, McColl aides portray those staunch party loyalists as being a small percentage of even the typical Republican primary vote.

“Bentley’s greatest and most deserved attribute is the support of the hard-core party activists, but they’re maybe only a percentage of 1% of the vote,” McColl strategist Huckaby said.

Similarly, Huckaby tried to downplay the significance of Bentley’s endorsement last month by the conservative California Republican Assembly and her 65%-35% straw poll victory over McColl in the GOP countywide convention April 30 at Del Mar Fairgrounds.

“We conceded that part of the primary to Carol Bentley long ago,” Huckaby said.

Attempting to undermine Bentley’s “ real Republican” strategy, McColl’s campaign has emphasized that McColl is a lifelong Republican who, in her own words, will work to “complete the Reagan-Deukmejian agenda” in Sacramento.

Of her opponent’s slogan, the 57-year-old McColl said, “Perhaps that’s her only identity, since she has no record of her own.” McColl’s campaign brochures also touch on some of the highlights of her legislative record, including crackdowns on prostitution and other anti-crime programs that have marked her as one of the council’s most conservative members.

“This effort to out-Republican Gloria McColl is simply not going to work,” Huckaby said.

In her public appearances, McColl also attacks Bentley’s suggestion that experience as a staffer in a partisan political office is, for purposes of this campaign, preferable to McColl’s own elective service.

‘Bring Home the Bacon’

“Being a staff person is one thing; being the person who actually puts together the votes to get things done is another,” said McColl, who lives in Kensington with her husband and is the mother of three grown children. In particular, McColl points to her leading role in San Diego’s recent selection as a U.S. Olympic training center site as proof of her ability to “bring home the bacon” for her constituents.

Moreover, McColl argues that her local government experience makes her “a more persuasive advocate” for San Diego County’s longtime complaint that it has been shortchanged by tens of millions of dollars in Sacramento because of alleged inequities in the distribution of property taxes and other revenues.

“In local government, it’s the issue, not partisanship, that’s important,” McColl said. “In Sacramento, the Republicans are a minority, so you have to cooperate with Democrats to accomplish anything. . . . There’s such a thing as being too partisan.”

Injecting one other partisan concern into the campaign, Bentley’s mailers warn that, if McColl is elected to the Assembly, her 3rd District council seat could go to a Democrat, shifting the council’s philosophical balance.

“On June 7, send the ‘ real Republican’ to Sacramento. And keep the other Republican at work in San Diego on the City Council,” a Bentley mailer sent out last week said.

The McColl forces, however, are confident that it is the “other Republican” who will go to Sacramento to succeed Stirling. Huckaby, in fact, indicated that, although not taking the election for granted, he is already looking past it.

Calling McColl’s estimated $300,000-plus campaign budget “not unrealistic at all,” Huckaby emphasized that part of that money is designed not just to win next month’s primary, but to solidify McColl’s hold on the seat even before she occupies it.

“There’s a consideration to be made here, and that’s to put Gloria McColl in a position that she’ll never be seriously challenged again,” Huckaby said. “And the way you do that is to win convincingly. So, part of our strategy in this race is to make Gloria McColl safe in future years.”

McColl said she appreciates Huckaby’s concern over her long-range political future, but her own sights extend no farther than June.

“You have to win this race before you worry about the next one,” McColl said. “Right now, 51% in June sounds pretty good to me.”