ORANGE COUNTY EXECUTIVES SPEAK

Orange County chief executive officers are optimistic about local business conditions, according to the results of an executive outlook survey conducted for The Times by Mark Baldassare & Associates of Irvine. Not only do most of the 592 executives who participated in the survey believe the county’s economy will continue to expand, but the overwhelming majority also thinks next year will bring even better things.

On the down side, they acknowledge that traffic conditions, a tighter labor market and housing costs will take a toll on their businesses this year. Not surprisingly, a plurality also thinks they county is becoming a less attractive place to do business.

Local Business Outlook Despite their fear that Orange County is becoming a worse place to do business, local executives are overwhelmingly bullish on the 1988 local economy.

1988 Outlook Expand Contract No Change All CEOs 76% 7% 17% NO. OF EMPLOYEES 50-99 76 6 18 100-249 79 6 15 250 or more 74 9 17 INDUSTRY Construction 65 21 14 Manufacturing 80 3 17 Retail/Service 77 5 18 FIRE * 68 16 16

* Finance, Insurance or Real Estate

Corporate Performance

The past 12 months have been good ones for Orange County businesses.

Today vs. 1987 Much Better Same Much Worse All CEOs 52% 42% 6% NO. OF EMPLOYEES 50-99 57 35 8 100-249 50 44 6 250 or more 48 45 7 INDUSTRY Construction 53 40 7 Manufacturing 51 45 4 Retail/Service 49 42 9 FIRE * 57 36 7

* Finance, Insurance or Real Estate

Corporate Outlook

After a year that found most local companies in improved positions, executives have even brighter expectations for next year.

1989 vs. Today Much Better Same Much Worse All CEOs 61% 37% 2% NO. OF EMPLOYEES 50-99 67 32 1 100-249 60 37 3 250 or more 57 41 2 INDUSTRY Construction 55 34 11 Manufacturing 64 46 -- Retail/Service 58 40 2 FIRE * 64 35 1

* Finance, Insurance or Real Estate

Economic Impacts of Local Trends

Almost nine in 10 CEOs say that increasing freeway congestion will hurt their business in 1988.

Local TrendS Good Bad No Effects More traffic congestion 1% 86% 12% Tighter labor market 4 76 20 Higher housing costs 7 73 20 More foreign investment 35 10 55

According to executives, the county’s attractiveness as a place to do business is slipping.

Trend In Attractiveness more Less Same All CEOs 35% 44% 21% NO. OF EMPLOYEES 50-99 44 36 20 100-249 30 50 20 250 or more 31 44 25 INDUSTRY Construction 17 57 26 Manufacturing 18 67 15 Retail/Service 54 21 25 FIRE * 44 33 23

* Finance, Insurance or Real Estate

Economic Indicators

CEOs expect movement in the “twin deficits” by the end of the year. The majority believes that the federal deficit will increase while the foreign trade deficit will decrease.

U.S. Indicators in ’88 Increase Decrease No Change Federal deficit 59% 25% 16% Trade deficit 31 54 15

Source: Executive Outlook Survey conducted for The Times by Mark Baldassare & Associates of Irvine.

For other results of the survey, see today’s special BUSINESS PULSE section.