SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA JOB MARKET: WORKING INTO THE NEXT CENTURY : OPTIONS : WHERE THE JOBS ARE
You’re 18 years old, ambitious and ready to prepare for a career. Or maybe you’re 30ish, sick of your current job and looking for something new.
In either case, lots of lines of work sound interesting, but slaving away in a dead-end industry just won’t cut it. You want something that’s going to be hot, where the job security or the chances for promotions and pay increases are good.
So what it comes down to is this: What fields are about to boom? In what lines of work will jobs increase the fastest from now until, say, the year 2000?
“Health care and computers,” said George T. Silvestri, co-author of a federal report titled, “A Look at Occupational Employment Trends to the Year 2000.”
Particularly health care. The federal study says that 10 of the 15 fastest-growing occupations from 1986 through 2000, in terms of percentage increases, will be in health fields. Another three are in computers.
“We’re getting a more highly educated work force all the time, (though) it’s happening slowly,” said Silvestri, an economist at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Even so, none of truly booming health occupations will require a full medical school education. (For that matter, they generally don’t offer the kind of money that doctors make, either.) Leading the way in health care is the job of medical assistant, which ranks No. 2 overall on the federal government’s fastest-growing occupations list.
Demand also is expected to skyrocket for physical therapists and their assistants, home health aides, podiatrists, medical records technicians, X-ray technicians, dental hygienists and dental assistants.
Many health jobs are among the fastest-growing occupations partly because so few people are in these lines of work now. Overall, even more openings are likely in traditional--though often less lucrative--areas. For example, more than 1 million new jobs are expected for registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, nursing aides, orderlies and attendants.
Behind the boom in health care is the aging of America’s population. Older people simply require more medical attention.
At the same time, the federal government is trying to clamp down on health-care expenses. Economists say that is translating into an effort to shift duties from highly paid doctors to medical assistants, nurses and the like. Along with government policy and demographic trends, the computer revolution is overhauling the job market. To begin with, technology is automating a lot of jobs into oblivion (try finding work as a telephone operator or typesetter, for instance).
The rise in high tech also is spawning thousands of openings for computer systems analysts, programmers and repairers.
Also on the list of 15 fastest-growing occupations are No. 1-ranked paralegals, who are expected to be gobbled up by budget-minded law firms, and--what else?--employment interviewers. With lots of people looking for work, a lot of people are going to have to interview them.
While the emerging, fast-growing occupations are changing the look of the job market, they hardly account for the bulk of the action. There still will be many more openings at restaurants and stores than in computer designers’ offices.
“A lot of people are uncomfortable with the fact that a lot of the new jobs will be for waitresses, waiters and janitors, but robots can’t do these jobs,” Silvestri said.
All told, though, how much weight should job hunters put on the government’s employment predictions?
Some, but not too much. For one thing, the predictions constantly are being revised. Federal economists are in the midst of upgrading the once-dismal outlook for jobs in low-tech manufacturing industries whose exports have been boosted by the weaker U.S. dollar.
Personal preferences are paramount. “If you’re going to do well, you need to like your job,” said John M. Lukasiewicz,the Bureau of Labor Statistics economist who worked with Silvestri on the government’s job-projection report.
Lukasiewicz sometimes needs to remind himself of that fact. He confesses to having tried to persuade his 17-year-old son to take the national job outlook into account when considering careers.
“He’s not very enthusiastic, I guess,” Lukasiewicz conceded. “His real ambition is to play professional basketball.”
Outlook for Other Jobs Eighteen occupational fields with 25,000 workers or more, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ projected percentage employment change in them between 1986 and 2000.
Pct. Change Management 28% Marketing, PR, advertising 32 Food service and lodging 30 Top executives 24 Education 13 Purchasing 13 Postmasters 8 Management support 30 Employment interviewers 71 Accountants, auditors 40 Loan officers 34 Construction inspectors 11 Wholesale and retail buyers 9 Engineering 32 Electrical engineers 48 Mechanical engineers 33 Architects 30 Civil engineers 25 Chemical engineers 15 Aeronautical engineers 11 Science 46 Computer analysts 76 Systems researchers 54 Mathematicians/statisticians 29 Life scientists 21 Geologists, oceanographers 13 Chemists 11 Teaching and libraries 16 Preschool, elementary 21 Counselors 21 Librarians, archivists 14 Secondary school 13 College, university -4 Health diagnosing/treating 42 Physical therapists 87 Physician assistants 57 Optometrists 49 Veterinarians 46 Registered nurses 44 Physicians/surgeons 38 Dentists 30 Pharmacists 24 Professional specialties 26 Publicity writers 40 Lawyers 36 Artists 34 Writers and editors 34 Entertainers, producers 34 Social workers 33 Photographers 33 Radio and TV announcers 24 Musicians 23 Judges 23 News reporters 18 Clergy 3 Secretaries 13 Stenographers -28 Typists -14 Food services 37 Restaurant cooks 46 Waiters/waitresses 44 Bakers 42 Bartenders 40 Short-order cooks 31 Health services 40 Medical assistants 90 Dental assistants 57 Nursing aides 33 Personal services 26 Home health aides 80 Flight attendants 32 Child care workers 20 Cosmetologists 18 Barbers 1 Protective services 31 Guards 48 Firefighters 17 Police officers 17 Construction trades 18 Roofers 28 Carpet installers 26 Carpenters 18 Bricklayers 16 Electronic services 15 Computer repairers 80 Home entertainment repairers 20 TV installers/repairers -9 Vehicle services 13 Bus/truck mechanics 24 Aircraft mechanics 20 Auto body repairers 12 Auto mechanics 8 Precision metal work 2 Jewelers 22 Machinists -1 Compositors/typesetters -17 Transport operation 10 Aircraft pilots, flight engineers 29 Truck drivers 21 Bus drivers 16 Taxi drivers 7 Rail transportation -37 Brake, signal, switch operators -40 Conductors and yardmasters -41
10 Hottest Employers
Industries projected to generate the largest number of new wage and salaried jobs in thousands, 1986-2000. Eating and drinking establishments: 2,471 Offices of health practitioners: 1,375 New and repair construction: 890 Nursing and personal care facilities: 852 Personnel supply services: 832 State and local government education: 784 Machinery and equipment wholesalers: 614 Computer and data processing services: 613 Grocery stores: 598 Hotels and other lodging: 574
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
The 10 Hottest Jobs
The fields expected to show the biggest percentage gains in employment, 1986-2000. Paralegal personnel: 103.7% Medical assistants: 90.4 Physical therapists: 87.5 Physical and corrective therapy assistants and aides: 81.6 Data processing equipment repairers: 80.4 Home health aides: 80.1 Podiatrists: 77.2 Computer systems analysts: 75.6 Medical records technicians: 75.0 Employment interviewers: 71.2
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fastest Growing Employment Areas of California
Highest percentage increase in employment, 1987-2010. 1. Anaheim-Santa Ana: 63.1% 2. Santa Rosa-Petaluma: 52.0 3. San Jose: 47.8 4. Oxnard-Ventura: 47.2 5. Santa Cruz: 46.6
Source: NPA Data Services Inc.
Regional Job Growth
Percentage increase and actual number of new jobs projected for each region, 1987-2010.
Pacific: WASH., ORE.,CALIF. 33% increase 6.4 million Includes Hawaii and Alaska
Mountain: IDAHO, MONT., WYO., NEV., UTAH, COLO., ARIZ., N.M. 39% increase 2.6 million
West South Central: OKLA., ARK., TEX., LA. 30% increase 3.9 million
West North Central: N.D., MINN., S.D., NEB., IOWA, KANS., MO. 18% increase 1.8 million
East South Central: KY., TENN., MISS., ALA. 18% increase 1.3 million
East North Central: WIS., MICH., ILL., IND., OHIO 14% increase 2.9 million
South Atlantic: W. VA., MD., DEL., VA., N.C., GA., S.C., FLA. 29% increase 6.5 million
Mid Atlantic: N.Y., PA., N.J. 14% increase 2.8 million
New England: VT., N.H., ME., CONN., R.I., MASS. 23% increase 1.8 million
Source: NPA Data Services Inc.
Most New Jobs in Nation by 2010
Largest projected increases in thousands of employees, 1987-2010. Los Angeles-Long Beach: 1,045 Anaheim-Santa Ana: 852 Washington, D.C.: 762 Houston: 729 Dallas: 657 Atlanta: 633 Boston: 579 San Diego: 491 Phoenix: 484 San Jose: 465
Source: NPA Data Services Inc.
