POLITICS 88 : Surviving Candidates Trim TV Ads in California

Here in the state where modern politics is largely a matter of videotape, the three surviving presidential candidates are severely scaling back plans for television advertising.

They will husband their funds instead for the summer political conventions, which themselves are elaborately orchestrated, four-day television commercials.

Democratic front-runner Michael S. Dukakis, who once considered spending at least $1 million here, may do only token advertising--depending on his internal poll standings next week.

Vice President George Bush, who has already secured the Republican presidential nomination, is doing none.

The Rev. Jesse Jackson, who plans to spend only about half of the $1.5 million he once considered, will try the method of advertising many political consultants consider the last-ditch technique of losing candidates. He will air a live half-hour broadcast statewide the night before the election.

Expensive Politics

The scaling back is a sign, say the campaigns, of how expensive California politics can be. It costs so much to broadcast ads here that anything less than a major commitment of funds is money wasted.

And if money spent on advertising rises commensurate with the closeness and importance of a race, it also is a sign that, once again, the presidential primary campaign was decided before California.

“We will make the decision to spend what we need to get the votes we need,” said Leslie Dach, Dukakis’ communications director. “We are just going to look at the numbers. . . . But this is not going to be a TV war.”

In Oregon, where some Jackson aides predicted an upset victory in the May 17 primary, Dukakis chose to run no TV or radio advertising after daily polls, first showing Jackson drawing nearly even, reversed and showed Dukakis starting to pull ahead. Once that happened, aides said, Dukakis’ campaign officials knew they would win and decided to save their money.

The decision in California, which will be made sometime early next week, will follow a similar process.

Although Dach said Dukakis will almost certainly run some ads in an effort to stay competitive with Jackson, the amount spent, according to some aides, could be as little as $200,000, depending on the poll numbers.

One source of pressure on Dukakis is that his campaign has already spent roughly $20 million. Under federal matching-fund rules, which set a $27.66-million ceiling on what candidates may spend in the primaries, Dukakis has less than $8 million left for the California primary, the convention and the weeks in between.

“There are always demands on the treasury,” Dach said.

Rival Democrat Jackson, meanwhile, will spend about $700,000 here on radio and television in both Spanish and English, according to Gerald F. Austin, Jackson’s campaign manager and media consultant.

While that is less than half of what the campaign considered spending a few weeks ago, it is still enough, Austin said, for the average voter to see 10 Jackson ads.

Thus, if Jackson ran two different ads, the average voter would see each ad five times. For an ad to prove effective, most media consultants believe, a voter must see it four or five times.

New Spots for California

Austin said he has produced two new spots for California and is considering a third. One links Jackson with, in Austin’s words, “the tradition of great Democrats” such as Franklin D. Roosevelt. The other new ad “is aimed at the women’s vote” and concerns such issues as day care and equal pay.

But Jackson’s big gamble is the planned 30-minute live broadcast scheduled the night before the election, a venture that will cost Jackson about $150,000 to air on nine stations.

While Austin said the show’s contents are still uncertain, other sources said actors Dennis Weaver and Elizabeth Montgomery may serve as hosts.

‘A Nice Way to End’

“We thought it (the half-hour program) was a nice way to end the campaign, not just in California but the entire national campaign,” Austin said.

But political consultants regard such a strategy as one usually reserved for candidates who are behind and have nothing to lose.

“The guy who is behind thinks, if only I can talk to people for 30 minutes, they’ll see things my way,” said one Democratic consultant, whose candidate is now out of the race.

The problem, said consultants, is that most people would rather watch “M*A*S*H” reruns than listen to a politician for 30 minutes.

Kansas Sen. Bob Dole tried the technique in Illinois, but to little effect. He quit the GOP race after that primary.

The show was best known for a technical malfunction that cut Dole’s face in half for several minutes before his staff hastily put a biographical videotape on the screen.

Jackson’s program will air in seven major TV markets across the state. In Los Angeles, it will be on three of Los Angeles’ four independent stations, KTLA Channel 5, KTTV Channel 11 and KCOP Channel 13, from 8 to 8:30 p.m.

KHJ Channel 9 turned down the broadcast because it did not want to preempt its 8 p.m. program, its local news show.

Steve Weinstein contributed to this story.