Socialists Keep Majority Hopes Alive in France

President Francois Mitterrand’s Socialist Party fared worse than expected in the first round of parliamentary elections Sunday but still appeared strong enough to win a majority of seats in the French National Assembly in the final round of voting next Sunday.

The results, which put the Socialists behind the conservatives in popular vote, were confusing enough to allow both the Socialists and the conservative coalition that now controls the assembly to claim victory in the first round.

But all computer projections agreed that the results would probably carry the Socialists in the final round to a small but comfortable majority of the 577 seats in the Assembly. TF-1, a privately-owned television channel, predicted that the Socialists would win 290 to 320 seats, a clear majority.

A Vote for ‘Stability’

Premier Michel Rocard, a Socialist, described the results as a reflection of “a significant and substantial progression of voters who support the government.” Although cautioning that “I don’t consider an election won until it is over,” he said the results indicated that the government would have a parliamentary majority that would provide “the stability and hope that France needs.”

Rocard also hailed the defeat of the extreme-right National Front party of Jean-Marie Le Pen, which will probably have few or no seats in the assembly. “All democrats must rejoice,” the premier said.

Conservatives also described the results as a victory, but they did not seem elated by it. Former Premier Jacques Chirac, the conservative candidate defeated by Mitterrand in the second round of the presidential election last month, said the results showed that the conservatives “can win despite what others have insinuated.” He was evidently referring to past predictions of defeat by those in his own ranks, including former Premier Raymond Barre, a conservative candidate who was eliminated in the first round of the presidential election.

Former President Valery Giscard d’Estaing looked on the results as a victory and called on voters in the second round to vote conservative in greater numbers “to rebalance the power of France.” He said it was obvious that the people did not want all power, both presidential and parliamentary, in the hands of a single Socialist Party.

The Socialists, while professing satisfaction with the results, clearly had no chance now for the landslide victory in the final round that most polls had predicted in the wake of Mitterrand’s decisive reelection in May.

85% of Vote Counted

At 12:30 a.m. today, with 85% of the vote counted, the Ministry of Interior said that the conservatives had won 40.69% of the total vote in the 577 contests across the nation. The Socialists had polled 38.38%, the Communist Party 10.82%, and the extreme-right National Front of Le Pen 9.24%.

These totals, according to the computer projections of TF-1, would probably lead after the final round of voting to a National Assembly of 290 to 320 Socialists, 255 to 285 conservatives and up to 10 Communists. Le Pen’s extreme rightists would not win a single seat.

This kind of assembly would probably not disappoint Mitterrand and Rocard. Both have promised to form a new government after the elections that demonstrates their “overture” or openness to other parties. Many French expect the Socialist leaders to offer ministries to some prominent center-right politicians like former Minister of Health Simone Veil. It may be easier and more meaningful for Mitterrand and Rocard to do this with a small Socialist majority than with an overwhelming one.

The prediction that Socialists would win control of the assembly, despite falling behind the conservatives in the popular vote in the first round, reflects the expectation that the Socialists will have strong Communist support in the final round and may draw some centrist votes away from the conservatives as well. The conservatives, on the other hand, may not get much National Front support and, in fact, may lose votes if they try to court Le Pen.

The results were a bitter disappointment to Le Pen, the glib former paratrooper who shocked France by winning 14.39% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election with a campaign mainly devoted to denouncing the numbers of immigrants in the country. His movement clearly is in decline and could be shut out of Parliament.

Electoral System Blamed

In the Mediterranean port of Marseilles, where he was running for deputy to the assembly, Le Pen blamed his party’s problems on the electoral system. In the last parliamentary elections of 1986, the National Front won 9.8% of the vote, about the same as Sunday. But under the system of proportional representation used in 1986, this gave Le Pen’s party 35 seats in the assembly. However, proportional representation was removed this time in favor of separate voting for a single deputy from each assembly district.

Le Pen seemed likely to lose his own seat as deputy. In his district, Le Pen, with 32.83% of the vote, fell behind Socialist candidate Marius Masse, who took 36.76% of the vote. Most analysts believe that Masse will win the second round.

To salvage some National Front seats, Le Pen appealed to the conservatives to reach some kind of understanding with him. “There is no way that the present (conservative) majority can win,” he said, “without the votes of the National Front.” Although the withdrawal by Le Pen candidates could help some conservatives win election, conservative leaders are reluctant to negotiate with him, at least openly. They fear that any closeness to the extreme rightist leader would drive centrist voters to the Socialists.

The election, which has been listless up to now, may turn somewhat livelier because of the closeness of the first round. The Ministry of Interior announced that 32% of those registered had failed to vote, the highest abstention rate in the 30 years of the Fifth Republic. Campaigners will now try hard to court these voters.

Under the two-round electoral system, a candidate needed 51% of the vote to win election Sunday. Only a few well-known candidates such as Chirac, Giscard d’Estaing and former Socialist Premier Laurent Fabius managed to win that kind of majority.

Percentage Needed to Qualify

In the other districts, all candidates who won the votes of more 12.5% of the registered voters are eligible to take part in the final round. Since a large number of registered voters abstained, candidates, depending on the district, needed something like 20% to 25% of the actual votes to qualify.

There will be a good deal of conferring and dealing during the week to persuade candidates in third or fourth place to withdraw and throw their support to one of the top two candidates. Communist leader Georges Marchais, for example, hinted that Communists, as they have for many years, would probably withdraw in favor of Socialist candidates ahead of them.