Low Turnout Is Predicted as Californians Vote Today

Californians go to the polls today, ending the long and often volatile presidential primary season and deciding a dozen ballot propositions covering such subjects as AIDS, campaign financing and prison sentences for killing law enforcement officers.

Polling places open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m.

Voter participation usually increases with presidential candidates on the ballot. But with the Democratic and Republican races all but decided, the California secretary of state’s office believes that turnout could be the lowest for a presidential primary since 1940, when only 40% of registered voters showed up.

Vice President George Bush cinched the Republican nomination weeks ago, and aides to Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis said Monday that they expect their candidate to collect enough delegates in today’s voting to claim the Democratic nomination at a victory party tonight in Los Angeles.

The latest Associated Press delegate count showed Dukakis with 1,883 delegates, with 2,081 needed for the nomination. His only active rival, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, has 985.

There are 314 Democratic delegates at stake in California and 175 Republican. Presidential primaries will also be held today in New Jersey, Montana and New Mexico. All told, 466 Democratic delegates are at stake in today’s primaries.

All three candidates campaigned in California on Monday, with Dukakis ridiculing Bush’s decision over the weekend to change his mind and support a delay of offshore oil tract leasing off the Northern California coast, and Jackson urging Dukakis to declare South Africa a terrorist state.

“I’m pleased he’s coming around, but he’s kind of late,” Dukakis said of Bush. “And I’m not for delaying that sale. I’m for canceling it. . . . I don’t believe you go out and mess around with a precious ocean resource.”

“It’s easy to say now, ‘Well, I’m going to delay it until after the election,’ ” Dukakis added. “What does that mean?”

Bush trails Dukakis in California in several polls and the environment is one of several issues in which Dukakis appears to have an advantage. Offshore drilling is often a critical issue in California elections.

‘More Information’

Bush said: “In offshore drilling, we’re talking about an area that I have a good deal more information than Mr. Dukakis.” Bush ran an oil-drilling concern in Texas before he took up politics.

The Interior Department on Monday cited opposition raised both by Dukakis and Bush as the reason for postponing an offshore oil plan, known as Lease Sale 91, so the next Administration can decide what course to take with it.

Jackson, meanwhile, urged Dukakis to declare South Africa a terrorist state or face a possible fight over the issue at the Democratic National Convention. In an appearance on KABC Talk Radio in Los Angeles on Monday, he also said that Dukakis offered “followship” instead of leadership.

“The Democratic Party is at a crossroads,” Jackson said. “Should we end Reaganomics, as I suggest, or manage Reaganomics, as Dukakis suggests?”

Dukakis in Lead

A new Gallup Poll showed Dukakis leading Jackson, his last opponent in a Democratic field that once totaled seven, by 64% to 26% among likely voters, with 10% undecided.

But though Jackson cannot win the nomination, how well he does in California could still affect his clout as he seeks to carve out a role for himself going into the national convention in July.

“Jackson got 21% of the vote in the California primary four years ago against two opponents,” said Mervin Field, director of the California Poll. “If he doesn’t do better than that against only one opponent, I think it will take a lot of wind out of his sails as we head into the convention.”

About 48% of the state’s 12.3 million registered voters are expected to come out today. But more startling is another figure: This year’s primary results will be decided by only 30% of the 18 million Californians eligible to vote.

‘Makes a Difference’

“We are saddened and frustrated that we have been unable to drive home the message that voting makes a difference in people’s lives,” said Caren Daniels-Meade, spokeswoman for Secretary of State March Fong Eu.

Of the 12 ballot initiatives that Californians will vote on today, by far the most controversial is Proposition 69, which could encourage the quarantine of AIDS patients and non-ill carriers of AIDS antibodies.

The measure has bipartisan opposition, including Republican Gov. George Deukmejian and Democratic Atty. Gen. John K. Van de Kamp.

Two initiatives that were expected to generate lively campaigns, but in the end did not, are Propositions 68 and 73, both dealing with the high cost of political campaigns in California.

Spending Limits

Proposition 68 would impose spending limits and stipulate campaign contribution limits for candidates for state office who accept public financing. Proposition 73 would not set spending limits and does not create public financing, but it would impose contribution ceilings.

“Not a whole lot of money has been spent on either side of these propositions, so I don’t think there is much public awareness and certainly no emotionalism,” said Los Angeles lawyer and Democratic adviser Mickey Kantor.

There were some fireworks Monday over Proposition 68, however.

At a press conference at Los Angeles City Hall, Van de Kamp and Mayor Tom Bradley denounced what they described as a continuing campaign to mislead voters into voting against Proposition 68. Van de Kamp and Bradley both support the measure.

“Be very, very wary of the No on 68 campaign,” Van de Kamp said.

Attacks Brochure

Van de Kamp said that while some “cynically manipulative” advertisements have been misleading, a recent brochure circulated by Willard Murray, a Democrat running for 54th District Assembly seat, flatly states that Van de Kamp opposes Proposition 68. “A blatant lie,” Van de Kamp said. Efforts to reach Murray were unsuccessful.

In addition, Sen. Alan Cranston, who also supports Proposition 68, issued a statement denouncing campaign literature suggesting that he opposes the measure. “I would object strongly to any effort to imply that I was opposed to that measure,” Cranston said.

There is also a proposition that would impose a mandatory 25-year prison sentence for the second-degree murder of law enforcement authorities. And there are two initiatives that would affect the current limit on state government spending.

Other propositions include measures to issue general obligation bonds to finance park projects and school construction and transportation projects.

Wilson Unopposed

Republican Sen. Pete Wilson is unopposed for reelection in the primary today and his expected Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Leo McCarthy, has only token opposition.

There are four hot U.S. House races in California.

In the San Gabriel Valley of Los Angeles County, Rep. Matthew G. Martinez is being challenged by Monterey Park Mayor Lily Chen in the Democratic primary in the 30th District.

In the 40th District, which includes parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, there is a GOP battle to replace retiring Rep. Robert E. Badham of Newport Beach.

Lungren Successor

There is also a close contest in the 42nd District to choose a GOP successor to Rep. Daniel E. Lungren of Long Beach, who is quitting Congress to continue his court fight to be confirmed as California treasurer.

In Northern California’s 12th District, one-term GOP Rep. Ernie Konnyu is being challenged by Tom Campbell, who is backed by Hewlett-Packard founder David Packard and by former Rep. Ed Zschau, who held the seat before Konnyu.

The most lively California Assembly races involve candidates who could determine how long Willie Brown remains Speaker of the Assembly. Several Democrats who want a new Speaker are giving strong support to primary opponents of candidates who back Brown.

Staff writer Scott Harris contributed to this story.

DELEGATES’ PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES

Democrats

2,081 delegates needed to secure nomination

Dukakis: 1889.70

Jackson: 985.10

Uncommitted: 361.25

Gore: 312.00

Simon: 148.00

Others: 5.00

Source: Associated Press