CAMPAIGN ’88 : GOP May Lose Ground

More indications of a close contest between Dukakis and Bush emerged from a nationwide survey by the Associated Press, which also found that Dukakis was off to a fast start in some traditionally Republican states.

Dukakis leads in the polls in California and New Jersey, both of which last went Democratic in 1964. He is running even with Bush in the polls in Utah, which gave President Reagan his largest majorities in 1980 and 1984. One survey shows them running neck-and-neck in reliably Republican Nebraska and Dukakis within striking distance in Texas and Florida, key Southern states.

Karen Marchioro, Democratic chairwoman in Washington state, said: “This is the best shot we’ve had in a long, long time.” The last time a Democrat carried her state in a presidential election was 1968.

Republicans have won four of the last five presidential elections, with Jimmy Carter’s victory in 1976 the only exception.

While Dukakis leads in nationwide public opinion polls, there is agreement that political fortunes in the five months until the election will be influenced by factors such as selection of a vice presidential running mate, campaign debates and the health of the economy.

“Nobody has laid a glove on Dukakis,” says South Carolina GOP party director Tom Denny. “That’s going to change once the conventions are over. We haven’t been able to start hitting on him.”