Politics 88 : Who Is Dukakis’ Best Choice? Guessers Zeroing In on Glenn

Vice presidential candidates don’t win elections, but everyone--and especially George Bush--is waiting to see who gets asked to join the Democratic presidential ticket by the party’s likely nominee, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis.

It has become the hottest political parlor game in the country as the leading contenders are evaluated on the basis of what they might bring the ticket in electoral votes and in Washington experience.

The decision, expected in the next three weeks, will say something about Dukakis, a man still not well known around the country. And it will give Bush, the expected Republican nominee, something to think about as he plans a countermove with his choice.

Focusing on Decisions

“This will be the first clear signal people will have about how Dukakis makes decisions,” Democratic pollster Harrison Hickman said. “This choice could say as much about his weaknesses as it does about his strengths.”

Only a couple of close advisers know what Dukakis is thinking, and they aren’t talking.

Dukakis campaign manager Susan Estrich keeps it short: “I can talk about a lot of things with you, but the vice presidential thing is just off base,” she said in a telephone interview. Next question.

Paul Brountas, a Boston lawyer and one of Dukakis’ closest friends, is in charge of the selection process and, so far, he has had one-on-one meetings with a number of possible candidates and then reported back only to Dukakis.

Meanwhile, the guessing game goes on. Does Dukakis look South, does he think about the Midwest? Does he rule out anyone without Washington experience because he also has none? Does he try to win such key states as Florida or Texas by naming one of their senators?

Earned Consideration

Dukakis reiterated Wednesday in Boston that he is giving consideration to the Rev. Jesse Jackson, who finished second in the Democratic race and says his constituency has earned consideration for the vice presidential nomination.

But because Jackson is still so controversial with some white voters, and because he would bring no Washington experience to the Massachusetts governor’s ticket, he is not expected to be Dukakis’ choice.

And that, in turn, almost certainly rules out the other men who sought the Democratic nomination this year, despite the fact that three of them--Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt and Illinois Sen. Paul Simon--have considerable Washington experience.

“You can’t deny Jesse and then name Al Gore or (former Arizona Gov.) Bruce Babbitt without turning off Jackson’s supporters,” said one political professional, who requested anonymity.

The Jackson factor probably also blocks the naming of Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn. Nunn’s foreign policy experience and Southern ties could be an asset to Dukakis, but his voting record on civil rights measures has displeased the black voters Jackson has energized, voters Dukakis badly needs in the South to offset the Republican strength there among whites.

Advice From Sen. Bradley

Dukakis is clearly most comfortable personally with New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley and often calls him for foreign policy advice.

“But that’s a Northeastern ticket, and I think that’s a problem in the South,” Mississippi Gov. Ray Mabus said in an interview. “A lot of people are going to roll their eyes and say, here we go again with the Democratic Party.”

Los Angeles lawyer Mickey Kantor disagrees.

“Bradley would generate a lot of excitement all over the country for this ticket,” Kantor said. “I think the fact that he was a basketball star would help him in a place like the South, and there is no question that Bradley would play well in California.”

But pollster Hickman notes one problem with naming Bradley that goes beyond “the Northeastern thing.”

‘Could Cause Friction’

“I think Dukakis has to be careful about looking like he’s launching somebody’s national political career with this choice,” Hickman said. “Naming someone like Bradley could cause friction among some other powerful and ambitious politicians in the party.”

Meanwhile, an aide to Bradley said Wednesday that the New Jersey senator has taken himself out of consideration as a possible vice presidential candidate. But Dukakis responded that Bradley “has not told me personally” he did not want to be considered and would not be ruled out.

Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen has unique appeal as a possible running mate for Dukakis because it was Bentsen who, in 1970, won the U.S. Senate seat that Bush thought was his for the taking. And that loss still smarts, Bush disclosed in his recent book, “Looking Forward.”

But, while Bentsen could help Dukakis in Texas, his controversial skill at raising money from political action committees that are affected by the Senate committees he serves on does not jibe with Dukakis’ aversion to such practices.

Florida Sen. Bob Graham, a popular former governor, has provided financial information to the Dukakis search team, but Karen Kapler, who ran a recent gubernatorial campaign in that state, doubts Graham’s value to the ticket.

“Graham is popular in Florida, no question,” Kapler said. “But Florida has become such a conservative state that I really doubt if Graham could swing it to the Democrats.”

Respected on Capitol Hill

House Majority Leader Thomas S. Foley of Washington and Indiana Rep. Lee H. Hamilton are House members who have been mentioned in the Democratic vice presidential sweepstakes. Both are very respected on Capitol Hill, but there is some question whether a House member can supply the national stature Dukakis needs.

Arkansas Sen. Dale Bumpers has been mentioned as a possible running mate for Dukakis, but his state has only six electoral votes.

Which brings the parlor game down to one man: Ohio Sen. John Glenn. No one claims that he is at the top of the Dukakis list, but he fits so many of the criteria being tossed about by political professionals that his name is on the lips of everyone playing this game.

Glenn would probably bring along Ohio’s 23 electoral votes and strengthen the ticket in the rest of the Midwest. Black voters would be reassured by his civil rights record, and white Southerners, a patriotic bunch, have always liked his hero image, gained as a fighter pilot and astronaut.

He brings credibility on foreign policy and military matters and, at age 66, he is not expected to look at the vice presidency as a launching pad.

Finally, Glenn has already had his background check. That occurred when he ran for President in 1984. The intense scrutiny then found him to be a lackluster presidential candidate but did not turn up any embarrassing personal baggage that could sink a national ticket.

“The main thing about picking a running mate,” said Democratic consultant Paul Ambrosino, “is that it’s not so much that you make a right decision but that you make sure you don’t make the wrong one, since it is one of the first things you decide as a potential President. Make a mistake, and it severely damages your credibility as someone who can run the country.”

Staff writers David Lauter and Bob Drogin contributed to this story.