Lyng Promises Governors Aid in Drought Loss

With time running out for Grain Belt crops to survive the worst drought since the Dust Bowl, Midwestern governors heard more bad news Thursday, ranging from a forecast of at least one more hot, dry, critical week to grim estimates of the damage so far.

Warning that an official assessment of the drought damage is still weeks, if not months away, Agriculture Secretary Richard E. Lyng told the 10 governors and their staffs that the federal government will “replace a substantial part of lost income that farmers are going to have.”

“We are determined to do whatever the government can do,” said Lyng, declaring that “this drought is too important to play politics with.” But the secretary cautioned that it is still too early to determine the impact.

“A rain next week or the following week can make some difference,” Lyng said. “We’ll need a little time to fully evaluate what the consequences are.”

Vice President George Bush in Washington echoed Lyng, saying that “if conditions continue to deteriorate, money that has been saved in this year’s farm programs will be redirected to farm families as disaster relief for the rural economy.” Currently economists estimate that the government will save about $5 billion in subsidy costs because the drought has driven up commodity prices. Most such relief would have to be authorized by Congress and signed by the President.

Already 20% of the nation’s 1988 corn crop, 18% of its combined winter and spring wheat crop and 10% of the soybean crop--the nation’s three main farm commodities--have been lost, reported Gail Martell, agricultural meteorologist for Shearson Lehman Hutton.

“It is utter and complete disaster in North Dakota,” she said, estimating that “two-thirds of the (spring wheat) crop is gone. And blowing dust is sandblasting (remaining) plants.”

Face Crop Losses

“Unless we receive substantial rain by the 30th of this month we risk loss of our corn crop and loss of our soybean crop,” said Illinois Gov. James R. Thompson who welcomed the 10 governors to “the heart of the drought land.”

Rain is particularly important to the corn which is rapidly approaching the time when kernels are formed. This coincides with a period of rapid growth when the plants move from needing about one-tenth of an inch of water each day to about a third of an inch. Corn is the country’s biggest export commodity and is used domestically for products ranging from animal feed to cooking oil to laundry starch.

“We are running out of time for the corn crop,” Martell said. “If it stays dry and we get heat, we could lose up to a third of the crop.”

Yet hot and dry is exactly what the National Weather Service predicted for the Midwest through the end of the month.

“Rainfall for the period is expected to be subnormal from the Central Plains to Illinois and Indiana,” the Weather Service’s first “drought advisory” of the year reported. The report said that since April 1, an area reaching from the Gulf states to the Canadian border received less than 50% of normal precipitation.

Sees More Deterioration

“We will see some additional deterioration (of crops) through the Heartland,” Norton Strommen, chief Agriculture Department meteorologist, told the governors.

“It is almost a certainty that for the balance of the year we will have some difficulties,” Lyng said.

“In some parts of the country there is already a disaster,” said Donald Wilhite, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Nebraska. “For the country as a whole, we’re within three to four weeks of a real national disaster.”

Even so, this year’s harvest coupled with surplus commodities owned by the government are sufficient to meet all domestic and export demand through the next year according to both government and private sector economists. Food shortages might occur if the drought were to affect next year’s crops in the United States and if other food-producing countries also were to experience crop failures or shortages--something that current global meteorological projections do not indicate.

After returning to Washington from Chicago, Lyng briefed President Reagan and Bush on the drought, then gave a report to the Cabinet. He also reported that, in discussions with members of Congress, farm groups and governors, “there was agreement that it is too early for emergency relief measures”--a reference to proposed legislation that would provide financial aid to drought victims.

Using existing authority, the Agriculture Department has offered some assistance to farmers, allowing them to cut hay and graze cattle on land that had been idled to reduce crop surpluses and conserve soil.

Reagan Expresses Concern

The White House statement said that Reagan “expressed serious concern” at the Cabinet meeting and commented afterward: “Our No. 1 worry right now is the effects of the drought on the farmers and their families and making certain they receive any help we can provide.”

The one controversy of the daylong meeting here was triggered by Illinois’ Gov. Thompson who angered other Great Lakes governors by proposing that Lake Michigan water be diverted to the drought-shrunken Mississippi River where barge traffic is being delayed by low water, sand bars and narrow navigation channels.

“The loss of barge transportation will have a severe impact on the Midwestern economy,” Thompson said, proposing nearly tripling the water that passes through three flood-control gates in Chicago daily.

The proposal, which caught the other governors by surprise, was quickly opposed by the chief executives of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Minnesota.

“It’s way out in left field,” said Minnesota Gov. Rudy Perpich, who was overheard telling another governor that he thought Thompson was “joking” when he proposed the diversion.

Needs Court Approval

Ohio Gov. Richard F. Celeste said that his state would fight the proposal, which needs U.S. Supreme Court approval because water flows out of the lake were established by a high court decision after years of litigation among the Great Lakes states.

Just a few years ago Thompson joined with other Great Lakes governors to oppose any diversion of water. “We must continue to be unyielding in our opposition to divert our water resources to other states,” Thompson said at the time.

Meanwhile, Army Corps of Engineers’ dredges worked on the Mississippi River at Memphis, Tenn., and on the Ohio River near Mound City, Ill., to deepen navigation channels. Both rivers remained closed to barge traffic.

Corps Maj. Gen. Thomas Sands said in Chicago on Thursday that last week’s river closings and delays cost the barge industry $11 million in lost revenues--a graphic measure of the drought’s impact on the economy. The losses were the result of delays, lost cargo and fuel used idling in the swift river currents.

Other governors attending the meeting were George Sinner of North Dakota, George S. Mickelson of South Dakota, Kay A. Orr of Nebraska, Tommy G. Thompson of Wisconsin, Mike Hayden of Kansas, Ted Schwinden of Montana and Terry E. Branstad of Iowa.

Staff writer Paul Houston in Washington contributed to this story.