Scandals, Low Poll Ratings Stir Concern in Bush Camp

For the better part of eight years, Vice President George Bush has been the most loyal of the loyal in defending the Reagan Administration. But after the FBI recently disclosed its massive investigation of widespread corruption in defense contracting, Bush called reporters to his office and declared himself “shocked” at the mushrooming scandal.

The vice president’s action reflects a growing concern among his advisers that the seemingly endless series of Administration scandals is becoming a serious problem for his presidential campaign.

And the so-called “sleaze factor” is only part of the reason for this campaign season’s foremost paradox: Bush’s extraordinarily low ranking in the public opinion polls.

It hardly seems to matter that the vice president, a national political figure for 17 years, can boast of serving in an Administration that has brought the nation both peace and prosperity. Less than five months before the November election, the polls show him a double-digit loser to the certain Democratic nominee, Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, a virtual unknown outside Massachusetts a year ago.

The vice president’s unfavorable rating at this stage of the campaign is even higher than those of Democrats Jimmy Carter and Walter F. Mondale when they lost to Ronald Reagan. This month’s Gallup Poll showed Bush with a 40% unfavorable rating, compared to a 29% unfavorable rating for Mondale in July, 1984, and a 28% rating for Carter in May, 1980.

Bush’s pollster, Robert S. Teeter, said Bush’s status as “a symbol of the Administration, almost a semi-incumbent,” is working against him. The vice president, Teeter said, “is getting some of the disadvantages of being an incumbent, but not the advantages, not identified with any of the successes.”

At least two other factors--an electorate interested in change after almost eight years of Republican policies and Dukakis’ overwhelming support from women--are also working against the vice president. But Bush’s unusually high “negative” ratings in polls--higher than any successful presidential candidate in recent times--can be traced directly to his links with the Administration, say both Teeter and Lee Atwater, Bush’s campaign manager.

“George Bush doesn’t have a distinctive negative,” Atwater declared. “Virtually all of his negatives are associated with negatives of the Reagan Administration. You can just track it in the polling.”

Prominent among those negatives are the defense contract scandal, the Iran-Contra affair and the legal troubles of Atty. Gen. Edwin Meese III.

“He got out front on the defense contract thing,” said a senior Bush adviser who asked not to be identified, “but there’s no question that Iran-Contra and other things have damaged him and impacted on his credibility. If it weren’t for that, he’d probably be even with Dukakis in the polls.”

Negative Impressions

Particularly alarming to the Bush camp is that voters’ negative impressions of candidates are generally difficult to overcome.

“Positives don’t mean too much; you can lose them overnight. But negatives stick with you,” said Douglas Bailey, a Republican political consultant. “It’ll be tough for Bush to turn them around, and he’s got relatively little time to do it.”

Bailey said Bush also may be adding to his negatives with his recent campaign attacks on Dukakis. “It almost always adds to your negatives when you’re negative,” he said, “and there’s no way for Bush’s negatives to come down unless he lays out a vision for the country and gives really strong reasons for positive impressions to go up.”

Both Bush and his wife, Barbara, have recently gone out of their way to declare that the polls do not worry them. “I’m behind at this point,” the vice president told Republican senators, “and I don’t think that’s bad either. Our message is right.”

At a news conference in Cincinnati on Friday, Bush said: “I’ll take some hits on these things (polls).” But “give me credit for that innate American optimism and let me lead into a future of peace and prosperity,” he said. “The pluses far outweigh the negatives.

“I’ve been pounded out there in the democratic process for six months,” he said.

Getting ‘the Truth Out’

Bush has sought recently to portray Dukakis as an ultra-liberal who is inexperienced in foreign affairs and too soft on crime and defense for the average American. He says he can erase Dukakis’ lead in the polls if he can “just get the truth out there and get the differences out.”

Although Bush is apparently following a conscious strategy in attacking Dukakis, he does not seem to have developed a tactic for dealing with his unpopularity among women. In fact, his advisers tend to dismiss the gender gap as a chronic Republican Party irritation that probably will somehow disappear on its own as the campaign progresses.

Sheila Tate, Bush’s new press secretary, called the gender gap “a Republican Party thing.” Other advisers point out that although Reagan seemed to suffer from a gender gap in both the 1980 and the 1984 campaigns, a majority of women ultimately voted for him.

Support of Women

However, Reagan’s support among women in trial heats was never nearly as low as Bush’s as measured in recent nationwide polls. A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll earlier this month showed Dukakis leading Bush by 52% to 28%, or nearly 2 to 1.

Bush advisers Teeter and Atwater say they have always expected a tough race and would not be surprised if Bush fell even further behind in the polls before the Republican National Convention in August. But both strategists expressed confidence that the vice president would overtake Dukakis in the fall.

At least one of Bush’s closest advisers and political strategists, who refused to be identified, is not so sanguine. “I think he (Bush) has a misguided perception of these polls,” the adviser said. “He thinks the country just won’t accept a liberal candidate. But the big difference here is we’re not running against Jimmy Carter or Walter Mondale.

‘Dukakis Is Different’

“Dukakis is a different kind of candidate, and he’s not meeting with radical feminists or union leaders or other special-interest groups demanding far-left socialist programs.”

Another Bush adviser, who also asked not to be identified, said “there’s some hysteria” in the Bush campaign over recent nationwide polls.

“But there’s no reason for getting that upset,” this adviser said, “because polls don’t mean that much this early. Remember that President Ford was 30 points behind Jimmy Carter in 1976 when Jim Baker (James A. Baker III, now Reagan’s Treasury secretary) took over the campaign, and Ford wound up losing by only 2 points.”

Baker, one of Bush’s longtime confidants and strategists, is widely expected to resign as Treasury secretary at some point to direct the Bush campaign.

‘The Seven Dwarfs’

About three months ago, when Bush had virtually sewn up the Republican nomination and some Republicans were derisively referring to the Democratic presidential candidates as “the seven dwarfs,” the vice president was widely considered a heavy favorite to win the November election regardless of who became the Democratic nominee.

But even then, Atwater said, “I felt it was going to be a tough race because, when one party’s in the White House for eight years, it’s always tough.”

Atwater believes the tide will turn once the electorate focuses on the November election. “No one is really thinking that much about the election now,” he said, “but they will, and George Bush ultimately will get credit in the area of peace and prosperity. People won’t reject those big-ticket items.”

One factor that has helped Dukakis and hurt Bush--but should not be a factor in the November election--is the way the Democratic and Republican primary races have played out.

Greater Press Coverage

A prolonged Democratic contest has given Dukakis greater press coverage and an opportunity to appear a winner week after week during the last two months. Bush’s early wrap-up of the Republican nomination has resulted in less press coverage for him.

Moreover, the fact that the only other surviving Democratic candidate is the Rev. Jesse Jackson has enabled Dukakis to appear to be a moderate in comparison.

“If there was one area where we miscalculated in our campaign strategy,” Atwater said, “it was in thinking that the vice president would get 10 or 12 weeks of beating an opponent every week or so. But he broke everybody’s back the first week in March. Jesse Jackson offered Dukakis a golden opportunity to win 10 or 12 in a row and an opportunity to look like a centrist instead of a liberal.”

Driving Home a Message

Most Bush strategists say they figure that once the general election race is joined after the August Republican convention in New Orleans, the electorate will pay closer attention, and Bush will be able to drive home his message that Dukakis is soft on defense, inexperienced in foreign affairs and too liberal for mainstream America.

James Lake, a veteran Republican political operative recently retained by the Bush campaign, said the vice president must spell out his vision for the country’s future and his positions on the issues--as contrasted with Dukakis’.

“If it’s a close call and people perceive inaccurately that Dukakis is a lot more conservative and pro-defense than he really is and more experienced to deal with international problems than he really is, then people will look at other things like ethical failures of the Administration to make up their minds, and that could cut against George Bush,” Lake said. “But I think he’ll be able to deal with these questions.”