E. Asia May Get a Third of U.S. Farm Exports

Agricultural exports to East Asia are expected to rise to about $10 billion or $11 billion in fiscal 1988, accounting for one-third of all U.S. farm exports for the year, the government said Friday.

U.S. farm exports are now projected to total $33.5 billion, the Agriculture Department’s Economic Research Service said in a report.

The report said prospects also appear good for higher sales in other parts of the Pacific Rim. But the drought, which has hit Canada, China and the United States, may disrupt sales patterns because of prices and reduced production.

“Strong economic growth and rapid urbanization has contributed to declining rice consumption in East Asia. The region’s wheat consumption is increasing because of changing eating habits, growing populations and increasing feed use of wheat,” the report says.

The United States exported 40.6 million metric tons of wheat in the marketing year that ended May 31. China bought 600,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat last week.

Consumption of feed grains, such as corn, is expected to go up 6% in East Asia because of large inventories of livestock, strong industrial use and a relaxed feed grain quota in South Korea.

Demand for meat is expected to increase over the long run in the Pacific Rim countries, especially in East Asia where higher incomes, strong local currencies “and growth of fast-food restaurants are prevalent,” the research service said.

Per-capita grain consumption in East Asia has been declining for a decade but is still higher than North America and Australia. Consumption of fish and meat is higher in the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

Analysts said new methods of examining economic factors “provide evidence that liberalization of Japan’s beef trade will lead to considerable growth in beef consumption, which could affect beef producers in Japan, (Australia and New Zealand), and the United States, as well as Japanese customers.”

Japan and the United States recently signed an agreement that calls for Japan to open its markets to beef and citrus imports over the next few years. U.S. officials have estimated that the agreement will mean $1 billion a year in additional sales for American farmers.