Truce May Free Iraq to Seek Arab Supremacy

WASHINGTON — Iraq can be expected to take advantage of the cease-fire in its war with Iran to resume its drive for leadership in the Arab world, a development that could prove unsettling to Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and possibly others, Administration officials and non-government experts said Tuesday.

The United States, meanwhile, welcomed the announcement that a U.N.-mediated truce is to take effect Aug. 20 and pledged to pay its “fair share” of the cost of a 350-member U.N. observer force dispatched Tuesday to supervise the cease-fire.

If the bitter eight-year-old war ends on schedule, the Reagan Administration will be able to claim a significant victory for its policy in the region, which sought to halt the fighting with diplomacy at the United Nations and naval power in the gulf. But Middle East experts in Washington cautioned that some risks may lurk behind the success.

One Administration official predicted that, despite the cease-fire, tensions between Iran and Iraq will remain high. He said the Baghdad-Tehran dispute could become as intractable as the Arab-Israeli conflict that has rumbled for 40 years and has included five full-scale wars.

Ismat Kittani, Iraq’s veteran U.N. ambassador, emphasized in an interview that Baghdad is suspicious of Iranian intentions.

“There is an Arab proverb: Trust in God but tie your camel close to your tent,” Kittani said. “Nobody should doubt Iraq’s will to obtain a genuine peace. All we want is the assurance that Iran wants the same thing and not just a truce in which to rearm.”

Kittani said Iran has not abandoned its goal of spreading its Islamic revolution throughout the region. He said Iranian radio and television broadcasts regularlybrand as illegitimate the governments of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Arab gulf states.

But American experts, both in and out of government, believe that Iran will be preoccupied at least in the immediate future with internal politics, as its leaders jockey for position in anticipation of the death of the country’s 88-year-old leader, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. These specialists are more concerned about Iraq’s intentions.

“All of the evidence indicates the Iranians . . . are preoccupied with their own internal affairs and are not willing or able to mount a major effort to export their revolution by force,” said Gary Sick, a former National Security Council Middle East expert.

But “(Iraqi President) Saddam Hussein continues to hold his grandiose objective of being leader of the Arabs,” Sick said. “A lot of the countries in the gulf are nervous about that. Here is Iraq, sitting on their borders with this massive military force and a reputation--well earned--for ruthlessness. Saudi Arabia and the gulf states have to take that seriously.”

An Administration official agreed that Hussein aspires to leadership of the Arab world. But he said Iraq probably will be “bogged down for some time in the monumental tasks of internal reconstruction” after the war.

With the end of the gulf war, the Arab world can be expected to turn its attention to the Arab-Israeli conflict. According to American experts, a renewed focus on Israel could help to head off conflict within the Arab world by directing its energy toward a common foe.

“It has to make Israel nervous, and that will make us nervous,” said Steve Alley of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “I don’t see any kind of conventional armed conflict between Iraq and Israel, but, if you are an Israeli policy-maker, you are going to have to worry about such a well-armed Arab nation.”

An Administration official said the situation may further weaken the Israeli peace camp, a result that could ultimately damage U.S. interests in the region. But he said an Iraqi attack on Israel is extremely unlikely because Baghdad is weary of war and must keep a sizable force on the Iranian border.

Syria, Iraq at Odds

Even more important, he said, Iraq and Syria are longtime antagonists, a situation aggravated by Syria’s alliance with Iran during the war. Iraq lacks the military strength to take on Israel alone, and it is most unlikely that Iraq and Syria could form an alliance even against their common enemy.

Throughout the gulf war, the major Arab states--except for Syria--have been united in their support for Iraq. If the Iraqis choose to pursue larger political objectives after the war, it could produce new friction among Arab states.

Egypt, which was drummed out of the Arab League after its peace treaty with Israel, has sought to return to the Arab fold in part by supporting Iraq in the war. With the war over, the Egyptians may have to turn to another strategy for reconciliation with other Arab states. Jordan, too, has earned political points by allowing Iraq to use its Red Sea port of Aqaba to import arms that could not be shipped through the gulf.

Meanwhile, Iran ordered its forces facing Iraqi troops along their 700-mile front to hold their fire Tuesday, the first cease-fire since the war began in September, 1980. And in Baghdad, people danced in the streets until dawn celebrating the impending truce. Although Iraq issued no cease-fire order, there were no immediate reports of fighting.