Global Harvests Seen Reducing Drought Impact

Despite the drought that has devastated North American crops this summer, most of the rest of the world is having a productive growing season that should help prevent famine over the next year, a new Department of Agriculture study reported Monday.

The study also showed, however, that the drought is fueling a sharp rise in world grain prices that is giving many nations no choice but to deplete their food reserves to levels that could lead to disaster if there is a major crop failure somewhere in the world next year.

“The world has been lucky this year,” said Ray Nightingale, an analyst for the Agriculture Department’s economic research division, explaining that good growing weather elsewhere has helped lessen the worldwide impact of the drought that has crippled agriculture in the United States and Canada.

‘Will Be in Big Trouble’

“If we had large crop failures in other areas of the world (this year), the world would be in big trouble,” he said. “ . . . But if we have large crop failures next year, the world will be in big trouble.”

The study found that although global production will continue to decline--this year largely because of the North American drought--agricultural production in the rest of the world will increase in 1988-89. The production, along with use of stockpiled reserves, should prevent severe shortages in most areas, it said.

But the report, which analyzed food production and consumption in 55 countries that rely heavily on agriculture, showed that the world’s reserves of cereals--rice, wheat, sorghum and other grains--could fall as much as 37% from a record high two years ago.

The countries examined in the study will need 23.8 million metric tons of cereals over the next year, 4.3 million tons more than last year, both to provide an adequate food supply and to restore depleted reserves, the study found.

Nightingale said it is “highly unlikely” that those countries will be able to restore their grain stocks in the next year to a “status quo level”--a level that would provide their citizens with the amount of food to which they are accustomed.

Dietary Requirements

The countries would need an additional 20 million metric tons of grain if they were to provide their people with what is considered a healthy diet meeting recommended daily caloric requirements, the study found.

Because of high import costs this year and difficulty in many countries of restoring reserves purely through domestic production, many countries will choose to try to “hang on and build them up down the road cheaper,” Nightingale said. But the temptation to delay rebuilding stocks raises the danger of famine if there is a major crop failure in the meantime, he said.

The study did not make worldwide production estimates, but it was consistent with another study, released last week by the United Nations-affiliated Food and Agriculture Organization, that indicated that the 1988-89 crop would be 1.77 billion metric tons, 24 million tons less than last year.

Reserve depletion is especially dire in areas that have had poor agricultural years in the recent past, Nightingale said. Many Asian countries have dangerously low stocks because India, usually a highly productive country, was the victim of a drought two years ago, he said.