33% of Israelis Want Another ‘National Unity’ Government, Poll Finds

About one Israeli voter out of three both expects and wants to see another “national unity” government result from upcoming parliamentary elections, according to a poll sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

And a majority of those look for the two major Israeli political parties, the Likud Bloc and Labor Alignment, to share the premiership under the same kind of rotation arrangement that was agreed between them after the last elections, in 1984.

The results suggest an Israeli polity that is almost evenly divided at the outset of the campaign among those who favor a rightist government, those who want a more leftist leadership, and those who stand in the center, uncomfortable with both the alternatives.

Diverse Centrist Group

The size of this centrist group is remarkably consistent among voters of different geographic origin, religious conviction, income and educational level. By contrast, there is a much clearer pattern among voters who favor one of the other two options.

Those who prefer a rightist government are likely to be Sephardic (of Asian or African origin), religious or traditional in their approach to Judaism, poorer and not as well educated as the average. Those who prefer left-of-center, or more dovish parties are mostly Ashkenazic (of European origin), secular, and with above average incomes and education.

A significant plurality of those polled singled out the future of the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip as the most important issue in their decision about which party to back. And 54% chose either that or a related issue--the party’s stand on an international peace conference or on relations between Jews and Israeli Arabs.

The second most important single issue was maintaining economic stability, which was cited by 21% of respondents. Another 8% said the future of the national health service was their primary concern.

The Times poll was based on personal interviews with 1,181 respondents conducted in late July. It consisted of 20 questions appended to a routine survey conducted by the Dahaf Institute, a research and polling organization here. The questions were formulated and the results analyzed exclusively for The Times by Tel Aviv University political scientist Yohanan Peres and independent pollster Michael Hopp. They have also been designated as experts to interpret election night results for Israel Television.

The survey sample is considered representative of Israel’s adult Jewish population. It did not include residents of Arab villages, kibbutz collective settlements, army bases, or Jewish settlements in the occupied territories.

Based on their response to the question “Which party would you vote for if Knesset elections were to be held today?” as well as other survey questions and the results of a separate poll conducted among Israeli Arabs, the Times poll yielded a predicted 42 seats for Labor and 40 for Likud. Of the remaining places in the 120-member parliament, the poll suggested that 17 would go to other left-leaning parties, 11 to other right-leaning parties, and 10 to religious parties.

Difficult to Form Coalition

The results suggest slim chances that either Labor or Likud will be able to form a stable, narrow coalition, particularly because several seats at the extremes of the political spectrum are predicted to be in the hands of parties considered unacceptable in forming a coalition--that is, the Communists and Progressive List for Peace on the left and Rabbi Meir Kahane’s Kach list on the right. Also, while the religious parties are generally seen as leaning toward Likud, at least some of them are considered possible coalition partners for Labor under the right circumstances.

“It seems to us that the power balance as it is today will lead to the establishment of a wide coalition government with the two parties in the center (Labor and Likud), as happened after the last elections,” the Times analysts concluded.

The survey showed that following Arab recognition of Israel and an end to terrorist attacks against it, 59% of voters would be ready to give up at least a part of the occupied territories as part of a peace agreement. About 27% said they would give up most or all of the territories (excluding East Jerusalem). By contrast, 22% would make no concessions, and 19% would agree only to limited autonomy for the Palestinian residents of the territories under Israeli sovereignty.

Interviewees were asked what they thought both Likud and Labor would do under the same conditions. And by comparing answers to the three questions the Times pollsters concluded that the electorate is more flexible than it perceives the Likud to be and less ready to make concessions than it believes Labor is.

Only 35% described Likud as willing to give up any occupied territory, and only 9% believe it would forfeit most or all of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. By contrast, 93% say Labor would give up some territory, and 68% say it would forfeit most or all of the occupied lands.