Explosive Mood Simmers Beneath Surface : ‘Olympic Truce’ Calms S. Korea

The violent upheavals that shaped democratic reforms in South Korea last year have given way to a state of relative stability as politicians prepare for an “Olympic truce” to keep a semblance of order when the Summer Games begin Sept. 17.

But beneath the calm, cordial surface, an explosive mood is simmering. It may not spill into the streets, but it threatens to engulf the National Assembly in pitched battles over the alleged wrongdoings of former President Chun Doo Hwan, a right-wing proposal to quash dissent by revising the new political system and the specter of military misbehavior raised by a brutal assault on a newspaper editor.

Almost anything could happen once the Olympic Games are over Oct. 2 and the constraints of world opinion are removed from the domestic political equation, analysts and political sources say. Some type of confrontation between the ruling party and the opposition is virtually assured when Korean democracy undergoes a post-Olympic acid test.

Restraint Is Watchword

“Everybody is restraining themselves to make the Olympics a success,” said Kim Jong Pil, a moderate opposition leader who plays the role of mediating between the ruling party and its main critics. “The worry is that when the Olympics are over, things are going to explode.”

At issue, in part, is an inflammatory statement made Aug. 13 by Kim Young Gap, minister for national administration, who said the government should consider revising the constitution to give President Roh Tae Woo the power to dissolve the National Assembly, where the opposition gained a majority in April’s election. The minister accused opposition lawmakers of supporting the supposedly seditious aims of radical students, whose street demonstrations recently have fizzled.

The remark was seen as a veiled threat that the government might try to skirt the legal system--or resort to a military coup--if it loses control of the political process. The ruling party stands little chance of mustering the two-thirds majority of the assembly necessary for legal constitutional revision.

Military phobia was further exacerbated by disclosures that four members of an army intelligence unit had beaten and stabbed a journalist who wrote a magazine article criticizing the pervasive influence of the military in South Korean society.

A major and three staff sergeants confessed to plotting the Aug. 6 attack on Oh Hong Keun, city editor of the Joongang Economic Daily. They said they acted independently, but the National Assembly’s defense committee is now investigating whether they acted on orders from above.

Select committees of the assembly are also laying the groundwork for sensitive investigations of former President Chun, the army general who seized power in a 1980 coup and ruled South Korea in a repressive, authoritarian style until massive demonstrations forced him to accede to democratic reforms last year.

Chun stepped down in February when he was succeeded by Roh, another former general and Chun protege who won last December’s presidential election by a plurality.

Although Roh appears to be distancing himself from Chun, his ruling Democratic Justice Party has indicated that it will try to shield the former president from any humiliation at the hands of the assembly.

Opposition lawmakers have vowed to uncover the truth behind Chun’s bloody suppression of a 1980 civilian uprising in the southern city of Kwangju and to probe allegations of widespread corruption and nepotism during his eight-year rule. Chun’s younger brother has already been arrested and put on trial for bribery, embezzlement and tax evasion.

The opposition and the ruling party are squaring off for a showdown over whether the investigative panels can force Chun to testify in the assembly. Protecting Chun could extract a high price in the ruling party’s already waning popularity. Many South Koreans openly despise Chun.

“It’s likely that these investigations will have no legal consequences, but they’re politically dangerous. The news reports will make the DJP very unpopular in the court of public opinion,” said a ruling party assembly member. “But our logic for protecting former President Chun is to build a tradition of peaceful transfer of power. If former presidents are always investigated, who would ever relinquish power peacefully?”

A recent public opinion poll conducted by the Chosun Ilbo newspaper with the Gallup Organization underscores the ambivalent support for the ruling party. Although Roh enjoys a comfortable 53.4% support ratio, his party came in second in popularity behind the Party for Peace and Democracy, led by the charismatic opposition leader Kim Dae Jung.

Stability Is Key Issue

The survey, based on personal interviews with 1,500 people nationwide July 15-19, showed that “political and social stability” was the most important issue to respondents. But in Seoul, which has one-fourth of the nation’s population, the DJP was the least popular of the four major parties.

Faced with uncertainty over how effectively it can govern--and whether it can field a strong candidate to succeed Roh in five years--the ruling party is groping for ways to take the initiative away from the opposition after the Olympics.

One strategy backed by the mainstream elements of the DJP is to play coalition politics with Kim Jong Pil’s New Republican Democratic Party, which can provide a swing vote for ruling party legislation. Eventually, they would push for constitutional revision to abandon direct presidential elections and introduce the parliamentary system with a strong prime minister, emulating the perennial conservative rule of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party.

Such a system would ensure that the ruling party could hold onto power indefinitely, even in the absence of a strong presidential candidate.

“The DJP feels helpless because they can’t find a successor, and they don’t think they’ll find one,” said Han Sung Joo, professor of political science at Korea University. “Every other party has an obvious candidate.”

The extreme right of the Democratic Justice Party, meanwhile, advocates a “confrontational strategy” aimed at provoking the opposition, said a ranking DJP lawmaker, who spoke on condition that he not be identified by name.

“The hard-liners think this kind of drifting in Korean politics is dangerous,” he said. “But people are not going to allow a repetition of the coup d’etat solution.”

Military Influence Charged

Kim Dae Jung, who came in third in last December’s presidential election behind Roh and opposition rival Kim Young Sam, has alleged that military influence was behind Minister Kim Yong Gap’s proposal to scrap the constitution.

“If the government decides to suppress the people, we will fight,” Kim said. “It’s not acceptable for them to think they can rule the country by threat instead of democracy.”

Kim Young Sam warned that “there still exist impure elements attempting to reverse or stop the flow of democracy in our society.”

But popular will, rather than opposition rhetoric, may ultimately be what succeeds in keeping the generals in their barracks, as prominent members of the ruling party are now suggesting in public remarks.

People Have Matured

“I think the maturity of the Korean people has reached a level where intervention from the extreme sides cannot happen,” said Suh Sang Mok, a respected economist and ruling party lawmaker. “We’ll have some nervous moments, but I don’t think Korean society will be dominated by either the extreme right or the extreme left.”