Jobs: What’s Hot and What’s Not

Planning a career change?

Recreational therapy is a field that looks good in terms of employment over the next 10 years. Also favorable as career choices are hotel manager, optician, computer programmer and veterinarian. These are just a few of the occupations predicted to grow by 35% or more over the next decade by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in its new “Occupational Outlook Handbook.”

The 550-page, hardcover volume is a comprehensive overview of the nation’s job market. Compiled by a Labor Bureau staff of 40 labor economists and statisticians, it analyzes more than 225 specific occupations, detailing the nature of the work, working conditions, training required, job outlook and earnings. “The handbook is published every two years,” said Mike Pilot, manager of the Occupational Outlook Program for the bureau. “The U.S. Government Printing Office sells about 150,000 copies every two years, so it is one of the most extensively used sources dealing with career information.”

The handbook is not futuristic in terms of reflecting new and emerging occupations, said George Silvestri, an economist in occupational employment projections. “For instance, we know robot technicians are out there, but we don’t have any data yet.”

The big picture in existing jobs?

“Essentially the job market has been moving away from a goods-producing economy to a service-producing economy for some time, and that trend continues,” Pilot said. “We identify what will grow and what will decline both from an industry perspective as well as an occupational perspective.” (The $22 book can be ordered from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.)

Bureau economist Valerie Personick, who specializes in industry employment, predicts a growth of about 21 million new jobs by 2000. And “practically all the 21 million will be in service-producing industries,” she said.

For those currently eyeballing their employment future, Personick identified the five fastest-growing industries:

--Computer and data-processing services: This is not the manufacture of computers, but the programming development, systems analysis and such data-processing services as automatic payroll, systems design and the programming of software.

--Outpatient health facilities: Group health organizations and health maintenance organizations, alcohol and drug treatment centers, home health agencies and visiting nurse associations.

--Personnel supply services: Growing especially rapidly is the field of temporary help--including such computerized clerical jobs as data-key entry, file clerks and dispatchers, and branching out to health professionals and blue-collar jobs--as manufacturers increasingly use temporary help to fill peak workloads.

--Health practitioners in private practice: Including doctors and dentists as well as dental hygienists, radiologists, and other technical specialists, indicating a shift in health care away from long-range hospital stays to out-patient procedures.

--Unclassified new services: Certain types of consulting work, research, other emerging services that don’t appear in the classification of any other industry, including speakers bureaus, telephone message services, merchandise liquidators, and mailing-list compilers.

“These are not necessarily the largest industries, but are the fastest growing, in terms of employment,” said Personick. At the other end of the spectrum, her department identifies such shrinking industries as railroad transportation, footwear manufacturing, railroad equipment and metal mining.