Bush Takes Lead by Defining Opponent

In the few short weeks since the Republican Convention, the presidential race has done a total turnaround. Before New Orleans, Republicans all over this country were concerned that Dukakis’ leads in the polls were insurmountable and there was no direction to the Bush campaign. Today, Republicans couldn’t be happier. Since the night of his acceptance speech, George Bush has been a tremendous candidate who has survived the controversy over his running mate Dan Quayle and now leads in almost every national poll.

To understand why Bush leads in the first week after Labor Day requires answers to the question being asked most often: “Is this a new George Bush?”

Friends and colleagues who have known the man over many years say no. This is really the private Bush being displayed to the public. There is no doubt that his outstanding performance at the convention--where he assumed the role of GOP standard-bearer--gave him the confidence he needed to launch the past few weeks of successful campaigning.

Bush and his campaign staff have played in the big leagues before. Bush is an able and experienced competitor and he doesn’t like to lose. With his close friend and adviser James A. Baker III at his side, Bush has assumed a new air of confidence and optimism, evident in his more animated speaking and campaign performances. He tastes victory. He knows the direction he wants his campaign to go and what he wants to do when elected.

He is also enjoying the combat with Michael S. Dukakis. After being pounded by Dukakis, Jesse Jackson and the other Democrats all spring, he is now swinging back--and scoring big.

The main goal of the Bush campaign was to define Dukakis to the American people before Dukakis had a chance to define himself.

It is an irony of politics that candidates are at their greatest peril at the time when their name identification peaks. That is the moment when a candidate’s image is weakest in the minds of voters--but interest in the candidate is strongest. Candidates must feed that interest by defining themselves and their candidacy or the opposition will do it for them. That will mean rapidly escalating negative ratings. For once negative impressions are formed, they are rarely erased.

Bush’s campaign realized that goal of defining Dukakis through attacks on the Massachusetts governor’s most vulnerable spots: prison furloughs, the environment, economic disarray in Dukakis’ own state of Massachusetts, “patriotism” and the simple right to recite the Pledge of Allegiance in schools.

The Bush campaign has laid out his agenda. In framing the debate, they are making Dukakis respond to their challenges--instead of setting his own agenda. To the extent that the Dukakis campaign had greater momentum coming into August, they have now surrendered it all to Bush.

Dukakis was able to get nominated by telling primary voters: I’m competent, I don’t want to talk ideology and I’m not Jackson. He was able to get through his convention by saying: I’m competent, I won’t talk ideology and I’m not Bush.

Today Bush is gaining by saying: I’m competent, I’m tested; this is my ideology and I’m not Dukakis.