Democratic campaign strategists in the South Bay hope to bring ‘Reagan Democrats’ back into the fold.

In presidential politics, the fight for California is on, and the South Bay is one of the critical battlegrounds.

If Democrat Michael S. Dukakis is to have any chance of beating Republican George Bush in the nation’s largest state, he must capture those Democrats who voted for Ronald Reagan in the last two presidential elections.

The South Bay is filled with tens of thousands of so-called Reagan Democrats who abandoned the party in 1980 and 1984 and propelled Reagan to the White House.

This time around, Democratic campaign strategists are determined to get them back, knowing that the results here and in other swing districts across the state and the nation could decide who is president.

“We have to win back people who voted for Reagan in the past,” said Bob Lawson, state field director for the Democratic campaign in California. “It’s very important. Obviously this election is going to be close. We definitely need to get all Democrats back in the fold, along with independents and independent-minded Republicans.”

From an aging storefront headquarters on Cravens Avenue in old downtown Torrance, the Democratic Party is gearing up for a ground offensive aimed at those Democrats who defected to the Republicans in droves during the last two presidential campaigns.

Armed with color-coded precinct maps, the Democratic strategists have targeted areas of traditional Democratic loyalty block by block, based on recent election results and such demographic factors as income, race and ethnicity.

The South Bay is sharply divided politically, racially and economically. The political landscape changes dramatically as you move from west to east.

The Republicans solidly control the coast. The GOP has a commanding lead in voter registration and loyalty in the expensive, predominantly white neighborhoods near the beaches from El Segundo to Redondo Beach.

This Republican enclave encompasses all of the wealthy Palos Verdes Peninsula. And it runs inland through now-pricey Torrance subdivisions as far east as Lomita before Democrats begin to overtake Republicans in voter registration and voting patterns.

The GOP dominance is readily apparent in the 51st Assembly District, the only one of four South Bay Assembly seats held by a Republican, Assemblyman Gerald N. Felando of San Pedro.

A majority of the voters in the district are Republican. Ronald Reagan beat Democrat Walter F. Mondale there in the 1984 presidential race by nearly 3 to 1.

Naturally, Republicans are concentrating their campaign efforts there.

Former White House speech writer Dana Rohrabacher, the GOP candidate for Congress, is so confident of victory in his own race that he has turned his attention to boosting Bush’s margin of victory in the solidly Republican area. “If George Bush doesn’t get 65% of the vote in this district,” Rohrabacher said last week, “it’s going to be a tragedy.”

At campaign events, Rohrabacher tells the Republican faithful that it is imperative that they get out and vote to build up Bush’s margin in Republican bastions to offset Dukakis’ strength in traditionally Democratic areas.

“California depends on us,” Rohrabacher said. “Whichever way California goes, the election goes.”

In 1980, Reagan carried the state with 53% of the vote, to 36% for then-President Jimmy Carter and 9% for Independent candidate John Anderson. Four years later, Reagan won 58% to Mondale’s 41%.

On paper and in practice, the allegiance to the Republican Party in the South Bay gives way to Democratic dominance as you move inland and as the white-collar coastal neighborhoods become increasingly blue-collar, minority and less well-off economically.

The change is sudden.

Torrance is almost 81% white, about 10% Latino, and just over 1% black, according to population estimates. Republicans outnumber Democrats 49% to 40%.

Just to the east, across a narrow strip of Los Angeles, Carson is 36% white, 33% black, 25% Hispanic, and 71% Democrat.

This is the heart of the 53rd Assembly district--a classic swing district represented by Assemblyman Richard E. Floyd, D-Hawthorne. Despite a Democratic edge in registration in the district, which includes Hawthorne, Carson, Gardena and Lawndale, voters supported Reagan over Mondale in 1984.

Daniel Chavez, a 36-year-old lawyer from Carson, is heading up the Dukakis campaign field operation in much of the South Bay and Long Beach.

With help from labor unions and teachers, volunteers and a handful of paid staffers, Chavez is zeroing in on South Bay Democratic strongholds using maps that pinpoint precincts where Sen. Alan Cranston defeated Republican Ed Zschau in the 1986 U.S. Senate race.

Precinct walkers will attempt to identify Dukakis supporters, meet them face-to-face, discuss the campaign and offer a red-white-and-blue yard or house sign to backers of the Massachusetts governor.

“It is building a foundation,” Chavez said, “targeting exactly who my voters are in every block.” The effort is part of a $4.5 million grass-roots campaign that Democrats are planning in California.

Democratic strategists also want to boost the Dukakis vote in another swing district, the 57th Assembly district represented by Assemblyman Dave Elder, D-Long Beach. Reagan narrowly edged Mondale there in 1984. The district, which includes San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City and much of Long Beach, is a key battleground.

Lawson said Dukakis is counting on “independent Democrats ready to come home.”

Kathleen Crow, Los Angeles County chairwoman of the Bush campaign, acknowledged that the Republican Party has all but written off the solidly Democratic 50th Assembly district, long represented by Assemblyman Curtis R. Tucker, D-Inglewood. Heavily minority precincts in Inglewood and South-Central Los Angeles gave Mondale 69% of the vote four years ago.

But Crow said the GOP has no intention of conceding the swing districts to the Democrats. “We’re certainly not going to neglect those areas that voted for Reagan the last two times,” she said.

RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN THE SOUTH BAY

1988 Voter 1984 Vote 1986 Vote District Registration for Reagan for Cranston 50th Assembly District 141,684 29.7% 75.9% Inglewood, El Segundo, 77% Democratic Westchester,South-Central 15% Republican Los Angeles 53rd Assembly District 140,511 Gardena, Lawndale, Carson, 61% Democratic Hawthorne 28% Republican 57th Assembly District 124,100 55.7% 56.5% San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor 61% Democratic City, Long Beach 27% Republican 51st Assembly District 183,282 50.1% 58.3% Torrance, Lomita, Palos Verdes 61% Democratic Peninsula, Beach Cities 52% Republican

The 1980 results are omitted because reapportionment substantially changed South Bay districts.

Source: Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder, California Secretary of State