Worries Over New Uprising Haunt Haiti : Loyalists and Thugs Seen as Threat to Hopes for Democracy

Fears of an armed uprising by civilian thugs and graft-tainted officers deposed in Haiti’s “sergeants’ revolt” and hopes for clear and rapid steps toward long-thwarted democracy preoccupied both soldiers and political leaders Saturday as the officers and noncoms now running the country completed their first week of power in an atmosphere of unusual calm.

The danger of a possible counterattack by loyalists of ousted Gen. Henri Namphy among the 70-odd dismissed senior officers or by the scores of civilian terrorists who remain armed and at large dominated radio call-in shows, newspaper letter columns and private conversations. Many expressed reservations over the fact that the deposed officers, as well as notorious leaders and members of the Tontons Macoutes, the ruthless private militia of the former Duvalier family dictatorship, have not been jailed.

“All they’ve done is go after the little guys and leave the ‘big toes’ alone,” one radio caller complained. The caller used a Creole expression to voice a widely shared feeling that, while about a dozen Tontons Macoutes were chased down by soldiers and killed by vengeful mobs last week, the revolt’s most dangerous enemies have been allowed to run free.

Since the mob action ended Wednesday, soldiers have resumed traditional army discipline and civilians have relaxed into normal patterns of life. But many expressed fear that the army and the population may be too relaxed.

Counterattack Feared

“There is risk of a counterattack,” said a former Cabinet minister who spoke on condition of anonymity. “It would seem logical that they would place the (deposed) officers under control, and the fact that they have left them alone is a puzzle.” He added that the Tontons Macoutes still at large “most obviously should at least be disarmed.”

The top Tontons Macoutes leader, former Duvalierist Col. Claude Raymond, who reportedly commands scores of thugs and has a stockpile of sophisticated weapons, has remained at his house in Port-au-Prince throughout the week.

There also are dozens of unmolested, armed henchmen of ousted Port-au-Prince Mayor Franck Romain, another former Duvalierist army officer whose men boasted of their responsibility for a massacre in the St. Jean Bosco church on Sept. 11 that so outraged army noncoms that they staged the Sept. 17 coup. Romain was last reported in asylum with his family at the Dominican Republic Embassy here.

At the same time, there were widespread hopes that the new government of Lt. Gen. Prosper Avril, with the support of the noncoms who put him in power, will move quickly to put Haiti on the democratic path that aid-giving countries such as the United States have demanded as a condition of restoring their financial support.

Looks to ‘Little Soldiers’

“We are hoping that the democratic process now will be protected by the little soldiers,” said Jean-Claude Bajeux, director of the Ecumenical Center of Human Rights and a leading liberal political figure. “I don’t think Avril has a choice. If he doesn’t move quickly toward a democratic process, he will be put aside like Namphy. Next time we will have to deal with the sergeants directly.”

Bajeux said that within a few days, a delegation representing all of the nation’s civic groups including farmers, labor unions, professionals, churches, human rights organizations and businessmen would meet with Avril to press three demands: to restore the 1987 constitution that was abrogated by Namphy, establish an independent electoral council by November and hold fair and free elections within nine months.

According to Sylvio Claude, a former presidential candidate who met Thursday with Avril and demanded elections within six months, the general, who now rules in concert with army Sgt. Joseph Hebreux, told him it would be at least two years before an election could be prepared.

“That’s preposterous,” Bajeux exclaimed. “(Avril) must understand his is only a provisional government and the only thing he has to do is prepare the elections. He’s not in government to solve the problems of health, roads and water.”

U.S. Conditions for Aid

Western diplomats here concurred. “Haiti is broke, but it won’t cost him any money to show his good will,” said a diplomat of an aid-giving country. A European diplomat noted that the conditions for restoration of U.S. aid are solid commitments to human rights, clear progress toward democracy, an end to drug smuggling and economic management for the benefit of the people.

“No government is going to come in tomorrow and give him $100 million,” said an official of a small aid-giving country. “Before any of us come back, we will want to see some fruit produced by this tree, and that means meeting the American conditions.”

On Friday, Haiti’s two leading business and industrial associations sought out foreign correspondents to make an urgent appeal for the restoration of at least some aid, if only through private voluntary organizations, to pump some money into the virtually bankrupt economy.

Another serious problem standing in the way of more fruitful relations with the United States is army Col. Jean-Claude Paul, under federal indictment in Florida for drug trafficking. American officials have demanded his ouster as a sign of Haitian willingness to do something about drugs.

Battalion Key to Any Move

While Paul did not participate in the sergeants’ coup, he has vigorously supported it, and his powerful Dessalines Battalion would be an essential element of the power equation in the event of moves by the ousted officers or the Tontons Macoutes for a countercoup.

“The only chance of another coup here is if Jean-Claude Paul changes his mind,” said a Haitian journalist, who expressed doubt that the dismissed officers could stage an uprising unless a powerful unit such as the Dessalines joined them.

Haitians of all political stripes have been angered by the American pursuit of Paul because they say that the United States has never offered proof against him or formally sought his extradition. In addition to wounded feelings over what they view as U.S. interference in a domestic Haitian affair, most politicians privately concede a certain fear of angering Paul at a time when his troops appear pivotal in maintaining the country’s fragile stability. One former government official expressed the hope that the problem of Col. Paul will soon vanish when the controversial officer completes 30 years of military service early next year and retires.