Analysis : Calm Follows Chaos in Haiti as New Regime Seems Sincere on Reform

The “sergeants’ revolt” against the repressive military regime and the dramatic army housecleaning that followed have given Haiti its best chance since the fall of the Duvalier dictatorship to establish a true democracy and climb out of its economic quagmire, say political and civic leaders who two weeks ago had all but given up hope.

Indeed, the chaotic picture of an uncontrolled army and a vengeful population, which dominated the revolt’s first few days, has given way to an air of calm and stabilityunder a relatively benign military government that appears sincere in its pledge to move toward constitutional rule.

Lt. Gen. Prosper Avril, head of the self-described transitional government of officers and civilians that was put in place after the Sept. 17 coup, seemingly has convinced skeptical political, civic and church leaders that he is genuinely committed to thorough, if gradual, democratic reform.

“Haiti would seem to be no longer a country dominated by an army, but having an army that is at the disposal of the country,” former World Bank economist Marc Bazin said. Bazin was one of the leading presidential candidates last Nov. 29 when the military, aided by terrorists, aborted Haiti’s only modern attempt to hold free elections.

Conversations with long-suppressed political leaders--among them Bazin and former presidential candidates Louis Dejoie and Gerard Gourgue--indicate that Avril, a former Duvalier protege who served loyally under ousted Gen. Henri Namphy, has emerged as an unusually intelligent and courteous leader.

Avril, Bazin said, “knows the limitations of solitary power” and has no desire to cling to it.

The new leader’s sidekick in the presidential palace, 27-year-old Sgt. Joseph Hebreux, also appears to be sincere in seeking democratic reform, observers say.

Hebreux, who has no government title, was chosen to represent the sergeants who made the rebellion, and he has remained at Avril’s side, possibly as watchdog as well as collaborator.

“We found a guy there (Avril) and a sergeant in complete accord with the democratic process and change we all want to come about,” Dejoie said.

Dejoie added that he is so upbeat about Haiti’s new prospects that he went directly from a meeting Tuesday with Avril and Hebreux to the Ministry of Commerce, where he applied for permits to invest $5 million in two new agribusiness ventures.

Except for limitations stemming from the lack of an elected legislature, the political leaders said, Avril and Hebreux pledged to abide by the relatively liberal constitution that was adopted last year but discarded by Namphy when he ejected President Leslie F. Manigat in June.

Foreign diplomats, too, say they are increasingly confident in the Avril government’s sincerity, and one European diplomat cited not only Avril’s democratic rhetoric but the government’s actions as well. This envoy mentioned specifically that:

-- More than 120 old-line army officers who were associated with cruelty and corruption have been dismissed, retired or reassigned.

-- Namphy-appointed heads of major public-sector companies have been deposed in what appears to be an effort to shut down some of the country’s most lucrative centers of graft.

-- A new public prosecutor already has taken steps to pursue those accused of involvement in a number of bloody events over the past two years, including the Sept. 11 massacre of 13 worshipers at St. Jean Bosco Church, the incident that triggered the sergeants’ revolt.

In addition, there have been indications of an easing of the tough U.S. policy that requires four signs of progress before consideration of a resumption of aid, suspended after the bloody massacre at the polls last November derailed elections.

So far, Washington’s criteria have included strict observance of human and civil rights, economic progress for the good of the Haitian people, cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking and a credible transition to democratic civilian government.

Without disclosing how they feel about the Avril government, normally tight-lipped U.S. diplomats here appear to have been cheered by the assurances they have received from some of his Cabinet ministers.

“They’re telling us, ‘There will be actions, and you will be happy with them,’ ” one diplomat said.

At the same time, Bazin said he has had reassuring telephone conversations with U.S. members of Congress, suggesting a willingness to provide emergency aid until the electoral process can be started.

Even the major impediment to U.S. cooperation, the government role of Col. Jean-Claude Paul, who has been indicted in Florida on drug-trafficking charges, appears to have diminished since the coup.

Before the coup, Washington had called repeatedly for Paul’s ouster, although he still commands the Dessalines Barracks, a key power center. Diplomats say it is significant that the United States is no longer urging his dismissal but only that he be given no additional responsibilities.

Unsettling Factors

Nonetheless, while the prospects for true democracy appear to be better than at any time since President Jean-Claude Duvalier fled on Feb. 7, 1986, there are still unsettling factors.

Perhaps the most troubling, to Haitians and foreigners alike, is the continued freedom of an unknown but reportedly large number of Tontons Macoutes, the organized thugs of the Duvalier regime who have been blamed for much of the bloodshed over the past two years. The principal leaders, including the most powerful, former Col. Claude Raymond, still circulate freely.

Avril has promised the political leaders that he will disarm and neutralize the Macoutes, but so far he has gone no further than to have the minister of interior and defense, Carl Dorsainville, order everyone with unregistered firearms to turn them in by next Tuesday or face prosecution.

Given the history of the Tontons Macoutes, it does not seem likely that they will give up meekly. And if they do not, political leaders and diplomats predict, tremendous pressure will be put on Avril by church leaders, the public and probably the sergeants to do something dramatic--not only about disarming the Tontons Macoutes but about bringing to justice those who took part in recent acts of terror.

Dismissed Officers

Another unpredictable factor, meanwhile, is the mood of the scores of senior army officers who have been swept aside in the cleansing of the armed forces.

“We hear rumors of a Lebanonization--some of these guys raising their own private armies to strike back,” a longtime foreign resident here said. “Between them, they have a lot more money to spend than the government has. It’s broke.”

But most observers, including political leaders and foreign diplomats, said they see no likelihood that the dismissed officers could recruit followers among the enlisted troops who booted them out.