Israelis Weigh Heightened Threat of Missiles and Gas

As the marriage of poison gas and missile technology becomes reality in the Middle East, officials in Israel are contemplating ways to deter and perhaps preempt a chemical attack.

The concern has been heightened by reports that Syria has mounted chemical warheads on some of its missiles. Iraq’s reported use of chemical weapons on Kurdish rebels and, until recently, the muted international outcry over its use also increased Israel’s fears.

“The emergence of missiles as a routine weapon and the use by Iraq of poison gas are dangerous and threatening developments,” said Emmanuel Zippori, head of the disarmament department of Israel’s Foreign Ministry. “It is especially dangerous because gas is a very simple commodity.”

In a speech in Washington last summer, Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin said, “There is no doubt in my mind that some Arab leaders believe that they have got legitimization to use ground-to-ground missiles, to use chemical means, maybe combined together, against centers of population.”

A war planner’s nightmare of a poison gas attack on Israel goes like this:

Syria masses tanks in Lebanon and on its southern frontier. Then, without warning, it launches Chinese-supplied missiles armed with deadly mustard and nerve gas against Israeli cities on the Mediterranean coast.

As panic sweeps the stricken urban corridor from Tel Aviv to Haifa, Syria orders its tanks to sweep into Lebanon to attack Israel from the north and east. Israel’s air force, normally a source of quick counterattack, has been hampered by conventional and chemical missile attacks on the country’s major airfields. The call-up of Israeli army reserves is slowed by chemical bombardment of gathering places, the shock of civilian casualties, the rush to hospitalize survivors and the reluctance of men to leave ailing families.

Harsh Retaliation Predicted

Israeli officials say that in such a case, eventual retaliation would be harsh. Air attacks on Syrian cities would almost certainly follow. Nuclear revenge is perhaps considered unnecessary but is not ruled out.

“The response would be ferocious,” said a leading member of an Israeli defense think tank.

The reliance on deterrence requires improvement of Israel’s air defense and offense, military experts here say, suggesting that the Middle East’s touch-and-go weapons race continues at full throttle.

Civil defense is secondary. Plans to hand out gas masks to all Israeli citizens have been shelved as ineffective, although test programs to distribute a limited number of masks are still planned.

When asked if Israel itself makes or stockpiles chemical weapons, Israeli officials are evasive. One high-ranking official admitted that the country produces poison gas to carry out defensive tests.

“Any country with a modest chemical industry can make gas weapons,” this official said. “If we need them we can get them.”

Some foreign observers express doubts that Israel produces chemical weapons only for testing.

“Having the chemical weapons helps ensure that no one else uses them,” said W. Seth Carus, an arms expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

In any case, gas weapons are not new in the Middle East. Besides Iraq and Syria, Egypt possesses them and once used gas in attacking Yemen in the 1960s. Libya hurled gas at Chadian troops during a recent war with its neighbor to the south.

None of Israel’s rivals in the region have used chemicals during their various wars against Israel. Syria launched some ground-to-ground missiles with explosive warheads against the country during the 1973 Yom Kippur War; Israel responded by bombing military command headquarters and industrial targets in Damascus.

Since then, missiles have spread in the Middle East as Arab countries seek ways to overcome Israel’s air superiority.

According to Israeli analysts, Iraq has increased the range of the Soviet-supplied Scud missiles from 200 to 400 miles and is testing a home-grown missile with a range of 600 miles.

Syria already possesses the SS-21, which can deliver warheads to a target as much as 80 miles away. Foreign experts say Syria has equipped missiles with a deadly nerve gas called Sarin.

Missiles From China

Saudi Arabia recently bought some CSS-2 missiles from China with a range of 1,500 miles. Egypt and Iraq are helping Argentina build an accurate solid-fuel, medium-range missile that, if completed, will undoubtedly show up in the Middle East.

Even an inaccurate missile is effective if its payload is chemical, Israeli experts note.

“You do not have to pinpoint the target of a gas weapon. Just land it in some populated place,” said a Foreign Ministry official.

As a defense, Israel and the United States are partners in building an anti-missile rocket called the Arrow. But the Arrow is still considered several years from operation.

For offense, Israel has been developing ballistic missiles on its own. A missile series named Jericho has been tested to a range of 900 miles, putting several Arab capitals in reach and even bringing the southern fringe of the Soviet Union within range. The debut launch of the Horizon I satellite two weeks ago by Israel probably means that the range of the Jericho has been increased, experts say.

Missiles enhance Israel’s proven ability to strike at the heart of neighboring countries. In past wars, Israel’s jets were able to neutralize anti-aircraft guns and attack deep in enemy territory, but anti-aircraft missile systems are making such attacks more difficult.

“The Arab countries are putting up more and more air defense. At one point, it is possible that the best way to penetrate the defenses will be by missile,” said Zeev Eytan, a retired army colonel and top military expert.

One analyst suggested that Israel’s latest missiles will be adapted to destroy attacking missiles at altitudes of 25 miles or more.

“The destruction of incoming enemy missiles at this height, or even greater altitudes, is particularly critical when they are armed with chemical or nuclear warheads,” said analyst Dore Gold in the Jerusalem Post. “Lower-level interceptions (could) contaminate the area just below the point where the attacking missile is destroyed.”

Horizon I is also expected to pave the way for an orbiting spy system. Spy satellites improve early warning of an attack and give Israel a chance to strike first.