State-by-State Poll Finds Bush Solidly Ahead : Republican in Lead With 220 Electoral Votes, ABC-Post Survey Says

A state-by-state poll of nearly 10,000 likely voters released Wednesday rated George Bush as solidly ahead in the race for the presidency, saying he held a huge lead in the contest for electoral votes.

Although polls of the nation as a whole indicate a close race between Bush and Michael S. Dukakis, the ABC News-Washington Post survey of the standings in each state--where the election actually is decided--put Bush firmly ahead.

ABC reported that Bush led solidly in 21 states, with a total of 220 electoral votes--50 short of the total needed to win. Dukakis was firmly ahead in three states and Washington, D.C., for 30 electoral votes.

Key Advantage Seen

With the election nearly a month off, voter sentiments can change. But the ABC-Post poll, the only public survey of its size this year, was the first recent poll to indicate a significant advantage for either candidate.

“It’s interesting and encouraging,” Bush told ABC. “I don’t know what the other fellow has. But look, we’ve just got a game plan. Stay with it. And if polls are encouraging, it makes me feel good, but I also remember when they weren’t.”

The poll was conducted from Sept. 21 through Monday among 9,778 likely voters in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Its margins of error varied with its differing sample size in each state; ABC withheld them.

ABC and the Post also conducted a standard national survey that put the race at 51% for Bush to 45% for Dukakis. A CBS News-New York Times poll Wednesday had nearly the same result: 50 to 45.

More Relevant

Such national polls measure popular sentiment across the nation as a whole. But in the election each state gives its electoral votes to the winner in that state, so the state-by-state standings are more relevant to the outcome. Such polls are rarely done because conducting polls in each state requires a far larger sample than surveying the nation as a whole.

The network did not report its specific results in each state, nor did it give the size of the sample in each state. Some or all of the states must have had small sample sizes, because even 9,778 interviews averages to only about 192 in each state and the District of Columbia.

The big states that ABC put firmly in Bush’s column included Texas (29 electoral votes), where recent state polls have given him a 10-point lead; New Jersey (16 electoral votes), where he led by eight points in a state poll last week, and Ohio (23 electoral votes), where he led in a state poll a month ago by just four points.

Large states that the poll said leaned toward Bush included New York (36 electoral votes), where most other recent polls have shown a slight Dukakis lead, and California (47 electoral votes), where most recent polls have found a tie.

The CBS-New York Times poll, meanwhile, found increasing doubt about the qualifications of the Republican vice presidential nominee, Sen. Dan Quayle, to serve as President, and it indicated the concern was keeping the race a close one in terms of the popular contest nationally.

63% Concerned Over Quayle

By a 2-1 ratio, probable voters in the CBS-Times poll doubted Quayle’s qualifications for the presidency, his worst rating in that survey. He was seen as qualified by only 30%, while 63% said they would worry about him serving as President.

Quayle’s presence appeared to help Dukakis: When those surveyed were asked if they could vote only for President, without considering the running mate, support for Dukakis dipped from 45% to 41%. Bush’s support remained at 50%.

Another poll Wednesday, by Louis Harris & Associates, put the popular contest at 50 to 48. It also said Dukakis may be helped a bit by concern over Quayle. When those surveyed were asked to chose between Bush and Dukakis only, without their running mates mentioned, Dukakis’ support dipped from 48% to 46%. Bush remained at 50%.

Harris polled 1,355 likely voters Oct. 6 through Monday. Its poll had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.