Democrats Appear to Retain Control of House as Incumbents Enjoy Edge

No matter what happens to Michael S. Dukakis’ presidential campaign, Democrats appear to be doing well enough in congressional races to retain control of the House of Representatives with about the same numerical advantage they have held over Republicans for the past two years.

This conclusion, shared by both Democratic and Republican analysts, underscores the power of incumbents to perpetuate themselves in office and the diminishing influence of the coattails spread by winning candidates at the top of the ticket.

Because the Democrats are favored to keep their majority in the Senate as well, the next two years will almost surely see a continuation of divided government if Vice President George Bush, the Republican presidential contender, is able to translate his favorable polls into victory on Nov. 8.

And as Ronald Reagan discovered in the last two years of his second term, a Democratic Congress can frustrate a Republican President’s foreign policy and reshape the domestic agenda.

The present House lineup is 255 Democrats against 177 Republicans, with three seats vacant.

Of the 432 incumbents, 408 are seeking reelection and, based on recent trends, about 98% of them will win another term. There are only 27 “open seats” without an incumbent in the race, and so there will probably be only 35 to 40 new faces when the 101st Congress convenes in January.

Except for a few districts, local issues and personalities seem to have replaced party affiliation and ideology in those relatively few House contests where the outcome is still uncertain.

One of the exceptions is California’s 19th District, where Rep. Robert J. Lagomarsino (R-Ojai), who represents Reagan in Congress, is locked in a major battle with Democratic challenger Gary K. Hart of Santa Barbara. It has become a classic confrontation between a conservative and a liberal. Congressional Quarterly, a respected independent publication, recently reported that their race, which is costing about $2 million, was one of only 11 in the nation with no clear favorite.

In Atlanta, where Republican incumbent Pat Swindall has been indicted by a federal grand jury on perjury charges, Democrat Ben Jones’ prospects are now considered excellent. Democrats are also hoping to oust Republican Reps. John R. Miller in Seattle, John Hiler in South Bend, Ind., Jack Davis in Joliet, Ill., and Don Young in Alaska.

GOP Targets 3 Incumbents

In return, Republicans have targeted Democratic incumbents David E. Price of Chapel Hill, N.C., Stephen L. Neal of Winston-Salem, N.C., and Elizabeth J. (Liz) Patterson of Spartansburg, S.C.

Several congressional veterans are retiring this year, including Judiciary Committee Chairman Peter W. Rodino Jr. (D-N.J.) and Delbert L. Latta of Ohio, ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee and co-author of major spending reduction bills in the first years of the Reagan Administration.

Others departing include Rep. Edward P. Boland (D-Mass.), author of the Boland amendment restricting military aid to Nicaragua, and Rep. Samuel S. Stratton (D-N.Y.), a formidable member of the House Armed Services Committee.

But for all the shuffling of some House seats, most political analysts say, the many millions of dollars that will be spent on House races this year will probably result in no major gain for either side.

As of early October, said Peggy Connolly, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, a gain of three to five seats in the House was in the cards. But if Bush retains his favorable leads in the polls and the Republicans begin to coordinate Bush’s campaign with GOP candidates for the House in seven or eight swing states, she said, her favorable forecast could be reversed.

“It’s possible that we could lose seats,” she said. “Or it will be a wash--no change.”

The party’s congressional fortunes, she said, are linked heavily to a big turnout of black and Latino voters who traditionally have given the largest share of their votes to Democratic candidates.

Kenneth Klinge, a political specialist for the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, predicted the GOP would pick up a few seats but agreed that there would be no major change. The outlook for Republicans, especially in the South and Rocky Mountain states, could change markedly for the better if Bush runs far ahead of Dukakis in those traditionally conservative areas, he said.

Even as dislodging House incumbents has grown more difficult, the cost of running for a House seat has doubled or tripled in the last 10 years, a result of greater use of television, public opinion polling and other sophisticated techniques.

Cost to Run Hits $600,000

This year, according to Democratic spokeswoman Connolly, a typical candidate in a competitive House race will spend about $600,000, or double the $300,000 that was normal a decade ago.

The rising costs, according to the GOP’s Klinge, have helped to strengthen incumbents’ positions against challengers. Each member of Congress has an office expense allowance of about $1 million for a two-year term, Klinge noted, and a large part of that can be allocated in ways that are politically helpful. Moreover, each House member has the privilege of sending free mailings to all residents of his or her district.

Each party’s congressional campaign organization does its best to help its candidates with financial contributions as well as advice on such necessities as research, television advertising and direct mail techniques. In the 1986 election cycle, the Democratic organization gave about $3.4 million to House candidates, and its Republican counterpart donated about $5 million.