Reminder of Power, Proximity : Soviets Send Message to Rebels by Halting Pullout

The Soviet Union’s suspension of its retreat from Afghanistan appears to be intended to remind increasingly successful Islamic guerrillas that even if they oust the Marxist government in Kabul, they can never escape the reach of Soviet power, a Reagan Administration official said Friday.

The official said the message to the moujahedeen insurgents appears to be: “Remember, we’re your neighbors, and we can bring the Backfires (bombers) in any time we want to.”

He predicted that Moscow would resume its withdrawal once it makes its point because the Soviets appear to genuinely want to end their eight-year occupation of Afghanistan, which has cost far more in money and blood than it appears to be worth.

President Reagan, campaigning in Chicago for the Republican ticket, said the suspension, announced in Moscow by First Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander A. Bessmertnykh, was “disappointing.”

Schedule Emphasized

But Reagan emphasized that Bessmertnykh “re-pledged to bring the troops out by Feb. 15,” the schedule originally established by the Geneva agreement signed last April by Afghanistan and Pakistan, and formally guaranteed by the Soviet Union and United States.

Under the agreement the 100,300 Soviet military personnel who were in Afghanistan on May 15, the date the accords went into effect, were to be withdrawn within nine months.

Moscow completed the withdrawal of half of its force Aug. 15. At that time, Soviet officials told the U.S. government privately that no more troops would be withdrawn until Nov. 15 but would be out by Feb. 15.

When asked if the United States planned to take any steps as a result of the Soviet announcement, the President said, “We haven’t had a chance to sit down and talk it over.”

The Administration protested repeatedly this week that Moscow has escalated the level of violence in Afghanistan, attacking the moujahedeen with Scud-B missiles, MIG-27 fighter-bombers and Soviet-based Backfires--all weapons new to the Afghan conflict.

White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater, traveling with Reagan, said the Soviet actions “can only increase tensions in the region and raise speculation that they aren’t going to live up to the Geneva accords.”

The Soviets have said the increase in their military action is in response to moujahedeen attacks on the southern city of Kandahar and other areas held by the Kabul government.

The U.S. government, which supplies the rebels with most of their arms and financial support, has urged the moujahedeen to avoid attacks on the Soviet forces that might provoke Moscow to reverse its decision to withdraw. But, officials said, Washington has never urged the rebels to hold back in their assault on the Kabul government’s forces.

‘Keeping Pressure On’

“The moujahedeen have won,” a U.S. official said. “They are keeping the pressure on the Kabul regime. I don’t see them lessening that at all.”

Although the official said it is understandable why the Soviets want to slow the rebels, he said the Kremlin was playing a dangerous game. The Soviet action could provoke the moujahedeen rather than cow them.

“This raises all sorts of questions about what they are trying to do,” the official said. “I would think that the last thing the Soviets would want is to have a whole mess of new casualties to bring home in body bags.”

He added that both sides may be hoping to frighten the other.

“They know that fear doesn’t bring love in that part of the world, but it does bring respect,” the official said.

State Department spokesman Charles Redman said the escalating violence “certainly (is) not going to encourage the moujahedeen to exercise restraint. Rather, it’s this kind of activity that’s going to harden the attitudes of the moujahedeen. “