Bush’s Coattails: At Best, a Bumpy Ride : As GOP’s Vehicle to the Senate, Not Even a Landslide Is Reliable

When Democratic presidential candidate Michael S. Dukakis began to fall far behind Republican George Bush in public opinion polls in Florida, Rep. Connie Mack, the Republican Senate candidate, saw an opening.

Mack put together a television commercial showing his opponent, Rep. Buddy MacKay, and Dukakis side by side, and noting some positions they have in common. “Hey, Mike and Buddy,” the new ad proclaimed: “You’re liberal!”

Mack’s effort to brand his opponent a Dukakis-style liberal has become standard fare in the Senate races. Nationwide, Republican Senate candidates hope that a Bush landslide Tuesday will carry them to victory, much as Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980 swept Republicans into control of the Senate for the first time in 28 years.

Coattails Dubious

So far, however, there is no evidence that Mack or any other Republican can expect to be elected on Bush’s coattails.

“Dukakis is going down in flames, but all our guys are doing great,” boasted Sen. J. Bennett Johnston (D-La.), who has been campaigning across the country for MacKay and other Democratic Senate candidates.

Polls in Florida show MacKay pulling slightly ahead of Mack. And Democrats, who regained control of the Senate two years ago and now hold a 54-46 edge, are increasingly confident that they will retain that majority and even build upon it.

All the Democratic senators in the running appear headed for reelection, while three Republican incumbents--David Karnes of Nebraska, Chic Hecht of Nevada and Lowell P. Weicker Jr. of Connecticut--are believed to be trailing their tough Democratic challengers. And in the six races where the incumbent is not running, including Florida’s, Republicans now seem unlikely to do better than hold their own.

For most Democrats, the key to success is running away from Dukakis. MacKay, for example, made it clear during a recent televised debate that he had not favored Dukakis to be his party’s presidential nominee and that he does not share all of the Massachusetts governor’s views.

Democratic Senate candidates everywhere are counting on independent-minded voters to split their tickets, as they frequently do in presidential election years, to elect a Republican President but support Democrats for Congress. It is this independence that has allowed Democrats to dominate Congress even though they have won only one of the last five presidential elections.

Political scientists view ticket-splitting as an outgrowth of the American electorate’s differing images of the Democratic and Republican parties. In general, according to some scholars, Democrats are viewed as good at managing government and delivering public services, while Republicans are seen as better suited for national defense and foreign policy matters.

Not as Popular

Analysts do not expect Bush to duplicate Reagan’s performance in 1980 because Bush’s popularity is not believed to be as broad as Reagan’s was eight years ago.

“I do not see the kind of enthusiasm for Bush this year that you did for Reagan in the past two presidential elections,” said Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), a conservative Democrat who has been stumping for MacKay and other Democrats in the South.

In addition, Nunn noted that Bush in 1988, unlike Reagan in 1980, is not trying to stir up resentment against Democratic incumbents. Reagan asked the voters in 1980 to throw out President Jimmy Carter and other Democrats because they had done a poor job. Bush’s message is precisely the opposite--that current policies should be continued.

Bush himself appears to be resisting the efforts of GOP candidates to grasp his coattails. Although he endorses other Republicans at every campaign stop, he has made no television commercial endorsing any Republican Senate candidate. Nor has he altered his campaign strategy in any way to help them.

Bush’s ‘Second Job’

“Our first job is to get 270 electoral votes,” Bush campaign manager Lee Atwater said. “The second job is to help Republicans where we can.”

Still, Republicans hope that a Bush victory will have some trickle-down effect, particularly in close Senate races such as the one between Mack and MacKay.

“We think the best thing that George Bush can do for us is to continue running the kind of race that he is running,” said Tom Mason of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.

GOP vice presidential candidate Dan Quayle, who has campaigned for some Republican candidates for Senate, noted in an interview that Bush might provide Republicans some “marginal” help in close races by drawing a large turnout of GOP voters.

“When it comes to a 51-49 race, you can make a difference,” said Quayle, who, as the junior senator from Indiana, came into office on Reagan’s coattails in 1980. “What it really comes down to . . . the most help is in turnout.”

If there is any state where Bush might have coattails in the balloting for Senate it is Florida, a one-time Democratic stronghold that has gone increasingly Republican in recent years. Bush is leading by more than 20 percentage points in the polls, and Dukakis campaign officials have written off the state.

Moreover, Mack and MacKay, both three-term members of the House, are about as evenly matched as any two Senate candidates can be. The winner will succeed Democrat Lawton Chiles, who is retiring.

Baseball Legend

Mack, named for his grandfather, the longtime manager and owner of the Philadelphia Athletics baseball team, is a telegenic conservative from the Gulf Coast who concedes he is trying to capitalize on Bush’s strength. “With Bush being ahead, it creates an environment for me to be able to deliver my message,” he said.

Unfortunately for Mack, however, MacKay does not fit the image of a Dukakis Democrat. Although he has opposed supporting rebel forces in Nicaragua, his voting record is more conservative than most House Democrats. As Nunn put it: “Buddy’s no liberal.”

In their recent debate, MacKay described himself as a “mainstream conservative” and emphasized that he disagrees with Dukakis on many issues. He said his record reflects 80% support for Reagan’s policies, while Mack’s doctrinaire conservatism has caused him to cast two-thirds of his votes against the President.

“People know MacKay is a conservative Democrat,” said Richard M. Henderson, a Bush supporter and past president of the South Orlando Kiwanis Club. Although he recently switched his registration from Democrat to Republican to avoid being “in the same club with Jesse Jackson, Ted Kennedy and Dukakis,” he said he could support either Mack or MacKay for Senate.

Nevertheless, Florida Democrats know that Bush’s popularity just might tip the scale in the Senate race. “It’s the major concern that I have,” said Bill Frederick, Democratic mayor of this thriving city of central Florida.

The Florida race has a counterpart in the opposite corner of the country. In Washington, where there is no incumbent running, Democratic Rep. Mike Lowry, a liberal, is also being characterized as an extremist. One television ad for his GOP opponent, former Sen. Slade Gorton, features a prospective voter saying: “Frankly, Mike Lowry scares the hell out of me.”

Of all the Republicans who are trying to link their opponent to the Democratic presidential nominee, none has had as much help from Dukakis as Hecht in Nevada.

Although Hecht is still considered an underdog, his Democratic opponent, Gov. Richard H. Bryan, has been slipping in the polls since Dukakis announced that he favors opening a nuclear dump in Nevada. Dukakis’ decision to support the measure Bryan has dubbed the “Screw Nevada bill” reflected a judgment by Dukakis strategists that the state was unwinnable for their man.

Hecht contends that Bryan, who previously had portrayed Dukakis as an opponent of the dump, “either doesn’t understand his own presidential candidate’s position on the issue or is trying to mislead Nevada’s voters on the facts.” But Democratic campaign strategists insist that Bryan, a popular figure in the state, can rise above the controversy as long as he continues to disavow Dukakis’ position.

Fighting for Lives

Like Hecht, two other Republican senators are fighting for their political lives, although Dukakis does not appear to be a significant factor in either contest.

In Connecticut, Weicker, a liberal Republican and 18-year Senate veteran, is facing a highly effective campaign by a conservative Democrat, Atty. Gen. Joseph Lieberman. GOP insiders said that Weicker failed to take Lieberman’s challenge seriously until the Hartford Courant two weeks ago published a poll indicating the race was a dead heat.

In Nebraska, Republican David Karnes, appointed to the Senate last year after the death of Democrat Ed Zorinsky, is believed to be trailing Robert Kerrey, the popular former governor and disabled Vietnam veteran.

Even with Dukakis’ problems, the four Democratic senators whom the GOP is making a special effort to defeat this year--Howard M. Metzenbaum of Ohio, Frank R. Lautenberg of New Jersey, John Melcher of Montana and Quentin N. Burdick of North Dakota--all appear to have comfortable leads.

All four of these incumbents have been characterized by their opponents as Dukakis-style Democrats. Typical of the Republican challengers’ campaigns was a newspaper advertisement placed recently by Montana Senate candidate Conrad Burns, a broadcaster. It described Melcher and Dukakis as “birds of a feather.”

The six states where the incumbent senator is not seeking reelection are Florida, Mississippi and Wisconsin, where the incumbents are Democrats, and Vermont, Virginia and Washington, where Republican senators are retiring.

The Republicans are expected to gain the seat in Mississippi, where Rep. Trent Lott is running ahead, but former Gov. Charles Robb is considered almost certain to win the Virginia seat back for the Democrats.

Vermont is expected to stay in Republican hands, and the Democrats are leading in Wisconsin. The races in Florida and Washington are still considered too close to call.

Staff writers Karen Tumulty and John Balzar contributed to this story.